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Virginia Cavaliers 2006 Preview

Virginia Cavaliers Football Preview By: Matt Fargo
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college football previews :#64 – Virginia Cavaliers Preview

by: Matt Fargo

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#64 – Virginia Cavaliers 7-5 SU; 6-6 ATS

Fargo’s Take - The Cavaliers have had four straight winning seasons and four consecutive minor bowl appearances. However, that is not what head coach Al Groh envisioned when taking over at Virginia five years ago. He talked about bringing the Cavaliers to the top of the ACC and competing for a National Championship but that has not happened, not even close. 2006 looks to be his toughest year with Virginia attaining a winning record being his biggest challenge. Gone are four assistant coaches from last season along with the some of the biggest playmakers that Groh has had on both offense and defense. Suspensions and departures over the spring and summer raised red flags about the players he’s brought to Charlottesville. Of the 24 players who signed letters of intent, eight failed to meet either NCAA or University standards and were not admitted. If Groh can put together a winning season and another bowl bid, it could be his best job since returning to his alma mater but those goals are a stretch.

Returning Starters on Offense – 5 The offense slipped slightly last season and things could be much worse this year. Gone is quarterback Marques Hagans, who could do just about everything on offense, and he will be replaced by an inexperienced signal caller in Christian Olsen. Olsen emerged from spring practice clearly ahead of Kevin McCabe and Jameel Sewell but he has just 23 career pass attempts to his credit. Also gone is leading rusher Walter Lundi, who did not have a spectacular 2005 but whose leadership will be sorely missed. The offensive line needs to replace three starters including D’Brickashaw Ferguson, the first lineman to be taken in the NFL draft. The strength of the team is at wide receiver where the top six players are back but that does little good if Olsen doesn’t have the time to get them the ball. This could very well be the lowest output offense since 2001 when it averaged just 20.8 ppg.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 Like the offense, the defense has plenty of holes to fill as well. After allowing only 17.7 ppg in 2004, the unit allowed 23.3 ppg, which was a solid 40th in the country, but the talent was there to be much stronger than that. The front seven was a solid group but that is now the weakness of the defense as four key starters need to be replaced. The strength lies in the secondary where eight experienced players are back, including the recent reinstatement of safety Tony Franklin, last years team captain. Mike London takes over as the defensive coordinator and his job isn’t going to be easy especially with so much inexperience at key positions. The defense is very young but there is huge potential, especially at linebacker. With Franklin back, there are only two senior starters on the entire stop unit and both reside in the secondary.

Schedule - The potential is there for a fast start to the season and that will have to occur because the back end of the slate is next to impossible. The non-conference games are not very daunting with home games against Wyoming and Western Michigan and road contests against Pittsburgh and East Carolina. If Virginia can somehow go 3-1 in those games then six wins are a definite possibility, but no guarantee. The Cavaliers start ACC play with road games at Georgia Tech and Duke but then the next three are at home against Maryland, North Carolina and NC State, all games that could go either way. Then the fun begins. Virginia travels to Florida St., hosts Miami (Florida) and travels to Virginia Tech in its final three games. The Cavaliers better have a 6-3 record heading into that stretch because they won’t be winning any of those contests.

You can bet on… Virginia has underachieved since Groh took over as he has been blessed with some enormous talent in his five years as head coach. The Cavaliers no longer have that heading into the season so they are going to need to do some overachieving if 2006 is going to turn out to be a successful campaign. Virginia has six home games on the schedule this year and with the Cavaliers going 22-9 against the number at home since Groh took over, the potential is there for more profits in this season. The problem lies on the road where Virginia is only 6-13 ATS as a road underdog since 2000. Five of the six home games are winnable so if they can keep that home edge, another minor bowl game is a definite possibility.