College Football Previews - NCAA Football Handicapping - Preview 2006 Betting

Navy Midshipmen 2006 Preview

Navy Midshipmen Football Preview By: Matt Fargo
Matt Fargo remains the NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional Handicappers League --- get his premium plays here.

college football previews :#58 – Navy Midshipmen Preview

by: Matt Fargo

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#58 – Navy Midshipmen 8-4 SU; 8-3-1 ATS

Fargo’s Take - Navy has turned from laughing stock to perennial bowl contender in just a few short years as head coach Paul Johnson has turned the Academy around. After finishing with three wins from 2000-2002, the Midshipmen have combined for 24 wins over the last three seasons, resulting in three bowl appearances. Navy does it with a bruising ground game on offense and an undersized yet speedy corps of players on defense. The Midshipmen led the country in rushing last year, the second time in three years they have accomplished that, and a third time in 2006 is not out of the question. Navy will be breaking in a new quarterback for the third time in three years so the success of that will carry forward into the success of the spread option attack it utilizes. The Midshipmen are still an Independent team and because of that, they won’t be vying for anything big, except for another minor bowl bid. The relatively easy schedule doesn’t help their cause either.

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 Navy rushed for an NCAA leading 318.7 ypg and 5.7 ypc last season which is the third year it has averaged more than 290 ypg on the ground. Amazingly, the Midshipmen averaged more than 6.8 ypc in four of their games last season and ran for over 467 yards in each of their last two games. Navy also passed for its most amount of yards since 2001. This is obviously a very complex offense since no team can shut it down and that also means the quarterback must be able to master it completely. Taking over this year is senior Brian Hampton who does not have extensive playing time under his belt but did play in all 12 games last season. The running back positions are all set as experience is abundant at both slotback and fullback. The passing game, never a priority for opposing defenses to contend with, could be even better since Hampton has a strong arm and Jason Tomlinson is a speedster on the outside. Four of the five starting offensive linemen are back.

Returning Starters on Defense – 9 This is the most experienced defense in the country and while the unit had its ups and downs last season, it should be much better this season based on the schedule alone. Navy was a respectable 66th or better in all four of the major defensive categories but did allow its most amount of total yards in the last three seasons. That average will be better this year as of the 11 starters on defense, 10 of them are seniors including the entire front seven and ¾ of the secondary. The Midshipmen rely on speed and athleticism as this unit is extremely small with the biggest starter coming in at just 265 pounds. They were roughed up last season by the more physical teams but that shouldn’t be the case this season as most of those physical teams are missing from the schedule. Look for major improvements from the defense this year.

Schedule - Navy has one of the easier schedules in the country and reaching double digit wins in 2006 is an attainable goal. There are only five true home games on the schedule but also just five true road games as well. The Midshipmen open the season with back-to-back home games against East Carolina and Massachusetts before hitting the road to play Stanford, a team they will be looking for some revenge against. A tough home contest against Tulsa follows before heading out on the road again in consecutive weeks to face Connecticut and Air Force. Rutgers comes to visit and then a game in Baltimore against Notre Dame could be one of the most highly anticipated games in recent history. Navy closes out the season with four relatively easy games against Duke, Eastern Michigan, Temple and Army. The game against the Fighting Irish is the only sure loss as Navy has dropped 42 straight against Notre Dame.

You can bet on… Another bowl game is on the horizon for Navy but don’t expect it to be a big one as the strength of schedule won’t warrant one of the bigger postseason prizes. If the Midshipmen can win their swing games against Stanford, Tulsa and Rutgers, this team can finish 11-1 and be considered one of the best ever. The Commander-In-Chief trophy has resided in Annapolis the last three years as Navy has gone 6-0 both straight up and ATS against Air Force and Army and making it 8-0 in both categories is likely once again. The Midshipmen are 28-13 ATS on the road since 1999 including a 10-3 ATS mark as a road favorite. They could be the chalk in as many as four of their road contests this season and should come away with yet another profitable season away from home.