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Cincinnati Bearcats 2006 Preview

Cincinnati Bearcats Football Preview By: Matt Fargo
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college football previews :#91 Cincinnati Bearcats Preview

by: Matt Fargo

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#91 – Cincinnati Bearcats 4-7 SU; 3-6-1 ATS

Fargo’s Take - The Bearcats had a disappointing 2005 season but that wasn’t totally unexpected as they were one of the youngest teams in the country and rebuilding takes time. Cincinnati will be better off for it this season but there won’t be a huge turnaround if the issues at quarterback and offensive line aren’t solved. Dustin Grutza was the starter last season and after a very average year and a below average spring, his job is in jeopardy. The offensive line allowed 40 sacks last season and there is hope that two JUCO transfers help to shore that up this year. The offense had averaged at least 25 ppg in the previous four years but that dropped to only 17.5 ppg last season. Defensively, Cincinnati should be much better with 10 starters returning however it is still extremely young. The schedule is a big problem with a bunch of killer games included and it will make things difficult to try and top last season’s victory total. The Bearcats won more games than they were supposed to last season so a duplication of that in 2006 is not out of the question.

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The scoring needs to come up quite a bit for Cincinnati to have any shot at a .500 season. This team scored more than 24 points only twice all season in 2005 after topping that number six times in both 2003 and 2004. The scoring offense finished 105th in the nation while the total offense was 93rd. To show how bad things really were, the Bearcats were able to score only seven points against 1-AA Western Carolina. Grutza will be battling it out with senior Nick Davila for the starting spot at quarterback and neither of them had a breakout spring so it’s a big concern. The running game will be decent with Bradley Gratthaar but the overall success of the rushing offense will come down to the line. There is not a lot of speed outside so while getting the ball to the receivers is the initial problem, them making plays is another issue. Expect more points this season but not a huge jump.

Returning Starters on Defense – 10 The defense was not much better, ranking 96th in scoring and 78th in overall. The 31.4 ppg allowed was the largest average in eight years and the finish to last year was a disaster as Cincinnati allowed 37.7 ppg over its final three contests. Four starters on the unit were freshmen while three were sophomores so the youth that was involved was the difference. A year older and a year of experience will make them better but they are still very young and it likely will take another season before they become very good. The secondary was the strength last season, if you could call it the strength, and it will lead the unit once again. Eight players with starting experience will be back there so it will be up to the front seven to make plays and improve a rushing defense that allowed 180.4 ypg, 90th in the country. Things can’t get much worse that last year so there is no where to go but up.

Schedule - Moving from C-USA to the Big East last season improved the schedule strength and this year will be even more difficult. The Bearcats have just five road games but only one, the season finale at Connecticut, is a game that they have any shot of winning. Non-conference road games at Ohio St. and Virginia Tech are impossible while Big East games at Louisville and West Virginia, the two best teams in the conference, are just as bad. The home schedule starts with a game against 1-AA Eastern Kentucky and games later in the year against Miami (Ohio), Akron and Syracuse look to be the best chances of some wins. Cincinnati will need an upset or two against the likes of South Florida and Rutgers to have any chance of a winning record.

You can bet on… The Bearcats were not supposed to be good at all last season so four wins was a big accomplishment. Three of those wins were by six points or less against even worse teams and those close finishes won’t cut it this year. The three ATS victories were the least amount of covers in nine years so we should see an increase there based on the law of averages. The Bearcats are going to be getting points in most of their games and if the defense can step it up even a little, they have the ability to sneak up on some of the middle of the road teams. Cincinnati is 4-14 ATS on the road over the last three years and with the difficulty of this season’s road schedule, it could get even worse unless the points are enormous.