College Football Previews - NCAA Football Handicapping - Preview 2006 Betting

San Diego St. Aztecs 2006 Preview

San Diego St. Aztecs Football Preview By: Matt Fargo
Matt Fargo remains the NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional Handicappers League --- get his premium plays here.

college football previews :#73 – San Diego St. Aztecs Preview

by: Matt Fargo

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#73 – San Diego St. Aztecs 5-7 SU; 7-5 ATS

Fargo’s Take - The “Air” Craft experiment is history at San Diego St. as Chuck Long takes over the underachieving Aztecs. Long has been a winner wherever he has played and coached, most recently as the offensive coordinator at Oklahoma the last four seasons. Although he doesn’t have any head coaching experience, he isn’t coming in to a bad situation so that should help ease the transition. The Aztecs finished 15-20 in the last three seasons under Craft which isn’t horrible but it didn’t meet expectations. The offense improved last season, averaging 26.9 ppg, the most in Craft’s four years at the program. The problem was on the other side where the defense allowed 27.1 ppg, which is close to 10 points more per game than allowed in 2003. Both coordinators are new as well and both come over from Kansas St., a program that had some very good years. Long’s biggest challenge is teaching the players the toughness that they have lacked and judging by the spring results, he is well on his way in doing that.

Returning Starters on Offense – 5 The Aztecs welcome back only five starters on offense but two of those are the pistons that make the engine run. Quarterback Kevin O’Connell had a very solid sophomore campaign, throwing for over 2,600 yards while completing over 62 percent of his throws. He tossed 19 touchdowns but did throw 12 interceptions and that should come down because of experience alone. Long groomed Heupel and White at Oklahoma and O’Connell has just as much if not more raw talent. The big threat this season however is junior running back Lynell Hamilton, who rushed for 819 yards last season and is expected to touch the ball a lot more in the new offensive package. The main concern coming into fall camp is the offensive line where only one starter returns to the lineup in 2006. Another possible issue is at wide receiver as Chazeray Schilens is the only wideout with any real experience. The running game will be the centerpiece but it will take a jelled offensive line to really shine.

Returning Starters on Defense – 8 The new defensive coordinator is Bob Elliott and he has had a very successful track record at both Kansas St. and Iowa prior to that. A majority of the defense is back this season and while that might not seem like a good thing seeing that they were 83rd in the country in total defense, they will be a better unit. The rushing defense was one of the worst in the country last year, allowing 185.3 ypg and a massive 30 touchdowns. Things are expected to be better as changes were made to player’s positions, fitting them in more suited spots. The secondary is going to be the strength of the unit as the Aztecs have four senior starters in the backfield. They will be even better if San Diego St. can find a way to get pressure on the quarterback as it finished 2005 with only 17 sacks. 10 of the 11 projected starters are either juniors or seniors and the Aztecs have the most returning starters since 2003 when they allowed just 17.3 ppg.

Schedule - The defense will be tested right out of the gate as the Aztecs welcome UTEP in their season opener. The only other non-conference home game is against Cal Poly while the two non-conference road games are at Wisconsin and San Jose St. A 2-2 non-conference record is likely although going 3-1 in those games is not out of the question. The MWC schedule starts off at home in the third game of the season against Utah, one of the preseason favorites to win the title. San Diego St. takes on the other two top teams in the conference, TCU and BYU, on the road. A split in those two games could mean possible title contention as the rest of the conference is all but equal. A road game at New Mexico followed by a home game against Colorado St. in the season finale could be meaningful for the postseason.

You can bet on… The underachieving days at San Diego St. are likely over as Long brings in a no-nonsense attitude which was evident from day one of spring drills. We can expect to see more smashmouth football which is completely opposite of what was the gameplan under Craft in his four years. Winning is expected right away and Long brings that approach since he has either played or coached in 14 bowl games. San Diego St. is only 4-12 ATS at a home dog dating back to 2000 and we could see it in that spot in the first two games against UTEP and Utah. With all of the changes on the sidelines, it is very possible that we see a reversal of those numbers. In contrast, the Aztecs are 7-3 ATS as a home favorite since 2002.