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Baylor Bears 2006 Preview

Baylor Bears Football Preview By: Matt Fargo
Matt Fargo remains the NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional Handicappers League --- get his premium plays here.

college football previews :#77 – Baylor Bears Preview

by: Matt Fargo

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#77 – Baylor Bears 5-6 SU; 6-4 ATS

Fargo’s Take - What could have been. The Bears started the 2005 season 3-0 before losing a heartbreaker to Texas A&M in overtime. They rebounded to pick up their first ever Big XII road win at Iowa St. but then two more tough defeats, one to Oklahoma in double overtime, sent them into a tailspin. Baylor did win its finale against Oklahoma St. giving the Bears their most wins since 1995. Both the offense and the defense showed improvements last season and there is even more optimism heading into 2006. Baylor averaged 21.5 ppg on offense and even though it was an improvement, changes are on the horizon as the Bears will be implementing a new spread offense this season. They will use their speed and athleticism at all of the key positions to try and churn out more offense and put more points on the board as they finished 91st and 97th respectively last season. The defense returns only four starters but there is a lot of experience there although depth could be a long-term issue.

Returning Starters on Offense – 8 New offensive coordinator Lee Hays is putting in the new system that is loosely based on the Texas Tech spread offense. He used this spread attack at 1-AA West Texas A&M last year and that team led the country in passing yards and averaged 40 ppg. Hays has the weapons at his disposal led by 5th year senior quarterback Shawn Bell. Bell had a pretty solid season last year, throwing for close to 2,000 yards and finishing 6th in the Big XII in passing efficiency. He has a solid group of receivers to throw the ball to and two excellent running backs to hand off to. The biggest question is on the offensive line as it’s not only small but the new system affects them just as much. Head coach Guy Morriss is taking over coaching of the line and if the spring was any indication, things should be ok.

Returning Starters on Defense – 4 The defense improved immensely last season, allowing 10.4 ppg less than in 2004 and the biggest improvement came from the rushing defense even though the numbers were not overly pretty. Only four starters are back but two of those are on the line and that will help to continue the improvement of the rushing defense. All of the linebackers need to be replaced but there is plenty of speed there and that is what the Bears will be banking on heading into the season. The secondary will be the strength once again as two starters are back along with Braelon Davis, who should return from academic probation. Baylor allowed opponents to complete just 51.3 percent of their passes, the best percentage since 1998. If the safeties can step up, the overall defense has a chance to improve even more.

Schedule - Four of the first five games are at home this season with the lone road game being a ‘neutral’ site game at Seattle against Washington St. The season starts with a tough home contest against TCU but the next two home games against Northwestern St. and Army should both be won. Playing in the Big XII South, Baylor is never going to have an easy schedule, facing Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Texas A&M every year. Three of the Bears South division games are on the road meaning two of the three North division games are at home, against Kansas and Kansas St., which is a good break. They miss Nebraska, Iowa St. and Missouri, all three of which have a shot at winning the North division.

You can bet on… Baylor is moving in the right direction but the Bears might never be able to compete in the always powerful Big XII South. Texas and Oklahoma are mainstays and it’s impossible for Baylor to get the same caliber of talent based on the fact that the university is the only private one in the conference. After not being able to buy a winning ATS season, the Bears have performed well over the last three years, going 20-11 against the number. They have been much better when laying points as they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight as the chalk. As a home dog, it’s a different story with Baylor going just 9-19 ATS since 1999 including a 0-3 record last season. The Bears will likely be in that role in the opener when they host TCU, the frontrunner in the MWC.