College Football Previews - NCAA Football Betting Odds - Preview 2006 Wagering

New Mexico State Aggies 2006 Preview

New Mexico State Football Preview By: Matt Fargo
Matt Fargo remains the NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional Handicappers League --- get his premium plays here.

college football previews: #116 – New Mexico St. Aggies Preview

by: Matt Fargo

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#116 – New Mexico St. Aggies 0-12 SU; 2-10 ATS

Fargo’s Take - A high-flying passing attack was supposed to happen for the Aggies in 2005 but it never got off the ground. This was a triple option team the year prior so trying to completely revamp the offense in one year was a stretch. Things should be better in the second year of the Hal Mumme experiment but it’s the defense that is the bigger concern. The Aggies were next to last in total defense and 116th in scoring defense, giving up 38.8 ppg. The stop unit should improve with six starters coming back, five of which are seniors but in order for this team to be successful, it will have to improve immensely. This will be New Mexico St.’s second year in the WAC where anything is possible so if the offense can find a groove, this could be a fun team to watch with a fair share of shootouts taking place. It is almost assured that this team will not be winless again since two 1-AA teams are on the schedule but a couple other wins within the conference must be attained or Mumme could be in trouble only after two years.

Returning Starters on Offense – 8 The Mumme aerial show never happened in 2005 as the offense tallied more than 30 points on only one occasion, which ended up being a one-point loss to Idaho. The best athlete on the offense, Paul Dombrowski, is gone but the rest of the receiving corps remains intact for new quarterback Chase Holbrook, who has the tools and the size to be a star. He sat out last year because of transfer regulations but he played under Mumme at Southeastern Louisiana so even though he is a sophomore, he has been in this system for three seasons. The running game gets everyone back and will be led by Justine Buries, who rushed for 779 yards and five touchdowns in the limited running attack offense.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 This is where the Aggies need to get better quickly and the going might be tough despite the return of six very experienced starters. Replacing NCAA leading tackler Jimmy Cottrell will be impossible and his leadership will be sorely missed. Even though the defense lost three starting linebackers in total, the depth and experience at that position is still fairly strong. It needs to be as this team allowed 216.3 ypg on the ground last year, 6th worst in the country. The secondary is another concern with Matt Griebel needing to be replaced at free safety. Playing in the WAC means facing a lot of excellent passing teams so getting into too many shootouts will not be beneficial.

Schedule - The schedule last year did the Aggies no favors as non-conference games against UTEP, Colorado, New Mexico and Cal started them out 0-4 and left them barely breathing. Colorado and Cal are out and SE Louisiana and Texas Southern are in so New Mexico St. should be 2-1 heading into its bye. The two best chances for WAC victories are against Idaho and Utah St. but both of those come on the road. This is the first time in the history of the school that the Aggies will have seven home games so there could be some surprises in the mix especially when the schedule has only four teams that made it to a bowl game in 2005.

You can bet on… Two wins. If the Aggies cannot grab both of those wins against the 1-AA teams, they have no right playing in 1-A. With the easy slate and seven home contests, New Mexico St. has a legitimate shot at four or five wins but the preseason ranking is still near the bottom because they haven’t proved anything yet. It could very well turn into another catastrophe if Holbrook can’t get the job done. New Mexico St. was one of the worst teams against the spread last season, covering only twice and losing money in its last eight games. As bad as this team was, they were getting single digits in their last three contests but don’t expect to see that this year.