College Football
Previews - NCAA Football Handicapping - Preview 2006 Betting
Florida St.
Seminoles 2006 Preview
Online
Predictions By:
Matt Fargo Florida St. Seminoles Football
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Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be
here before you know it so that means getting
an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season.
Knowing the teams now will save you time in August
and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp
of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from
worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.
Fargo’s Take
- Florida St. is always a preseason contender
for the National Championship but the recent failures
have put the program in question. Over the last
five years, the Seminoles have dropped 19 games.
To put that into perspective, Florida St. lost
only 18 games in the previous 14 years going all
the way back to 1987. Something is awry in Tallahassee
and all of the finger pointing is at the offense
that has yet to even come close to the 530 ypg
that the Seminoles recorded the year before offensive
coordinator Jeff Bowden came on board. Florida
St. finished 59th in total offense and 44th in
scoring offense last season and there needs to
be a big rebound. Reason being, the defense was
decimated by graduation and is going to be a very
young unit this year. The Seminoles play in the
weaker ACC Atlantic Division and because of that,
they are the favorite based on pure talent alone.
That talent will need to overachieve if Florida
St. is going to get back to one of the top teams
in the country.
Returning Starters
on Offense – 6 The offense leaned
on quarterback Drew Weatherford last season and
he did his best to carry the Seminoles. He threw
for an ACC freshman record 3,230 yards while tossing
18 touchdowns. The problem was that he also threw
18 interceptions and had no hint of a running
game behind him. He was sacked 32 times and that
was not his fault as the offensive line was throttled
by injuries. Only two full time starters from
the line are back but the starting five consists
of all five players having started at least one
game. Weatherford gets three of his top four wideouts
back, along with tailback Lorenzo Booker who was
third on the team last season with 38 catches.
Booker was a disappointment last year with only
552 yards rushing as the Seminoles finished an
embarrassing 109th in the country in rushing offense.
The line was the main cause for that and that
will improve this season.
Returning Starters
on Defense – 5 The defense held the
team together for the majority of the season last
year but did fall apart near the end of the year
when the Seminoles dropped four of their last
five games. The defense allowed 27.4 ppg over
that stretch after allowing just 17.9 ppg in its
first seven games. Looking back at this defense
brings up some huge questions based on the fact
that four defensive starters were drafted in the
first round of the NFL draft and that doesn’t
even include A.J. Nicholson. Talk about underachieving.
This season, the defense is ranked 5th in the
ACC and 16th in the nation in the preseason ranks
based on those players that need to be replaced.
Linebacker Buster Davis and defensive tackle Andre
Fluellen will be the leaders and are the big playmakers
heading into the season but as usual with the
Seminoles, others will emerge.
Schedule
- The schedule is extremely easy as far as ACC
schedules go and the non-conference slate is an
absolute joke. Florida St. does play at Miami
in its opener which is by far the toughest ACC
contest and it finishes the season playing at
home against Florida, the most difficult non-conference
contest. The other three non-conference games
are all at home and against far inferior teams
Troy, Rice and Western Michigan. On the ACC grid,
Florida St. misses Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
and North Carolina, three of the top four teams
besides Miami in the ACC Coastal. The other difficult
conference game is against Clemson, but that is
at home. Overall, the Seminoles have eight home
games with the final four games of the year taking
place at Doak Campbell Stadium.
You can bet on…
If the Seminoles can upset Miami on opening weekend,
they have a legitimate shot at a realistic National
Championship run. Clemson and Florida are the
only two teams standing in their way but both
of those are at home where Florida St. is 20-4
over the last four years and not losing more than
one game in any of those seasons. A potential
rematch with Miami in the ACC Championship could
have National Championship implications. The Seminoles
have had only one winning season against the number
since 2001. Florida St. is just 10-17 ATS as a
home favorite over that span including just a
1-3 ATS mark last season. The Seminoles have been
home dogs only once since 2002, an ATS loss last
season against Miami so don’t expect to
see them getting points at home this year.
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