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College Football Previews - NCAA Football Handicapping - Preview 2006 Betting

Ohio St. Buckeyes 2006 Preview

Online Predictions By: Matt Fargo
Ohio St. Buckeyes Football Preview
Matt Fargo remains the NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional Handicappers League --- get his premium plays here.

Fall camps are under way and the regular season will be here soon so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

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#2 – Ohio St. Buckeyes 10-2 SU; 9-3 ATS

Fargo’s Take - The Buckeyes are the top ranked team in both the AP and USA Today preseason polls following a fantastic finish last season. They got the nod over Notre Dame likely due to their 14-point win in the Fiesta Bowl last season, which was Ohio St.’s seventh consecutive win to end the season. The offense finished 26th in scoring and 32nd overall but it really got things going toward the end of the season. The Buckeyes scored 34 or more points in six of those final seven games after surpassing that total just once in their first five games. However, it was the defense that was really stout, finishing 5th in both scoring and overall defense. While the offense brings back the majority of players, the defense needs to reload in a hurry. They bring back only two players to the stop unit but there is still a lot of experience that will be filling those spots. Ohio St. has won 15 of its last 18 games going back to the end of 2004 with those three losses coming by a touchdown or less. Getting by the tough games early could mean another undefeated season similar to 2002 and another National Championship.

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 Led by quarterback Troy Smith, the offense improved from 98th in total offense in 2004 to 32nd last year and a finish in the top 10 is likely this season. Smith completed over 62 percent of his passes last season with 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions. It isn’t just him however. With receiver Santonio Holmes off to the NFL, electrifying Ted Ginn Jr. will take over as the number one guy outside. He is also one of the best return men in the country. His counterpart is up and coming Anthony Gonzalez who is actually faster than Ginn and is ready for a breakout season. However, the rushing game will be the strength again this year after finishing 24th in the country a season ago. Smith and tailback Antonio Pittman combined for 1,942 yards on the ground while Pittman put up a 5.5 ypc average. Running behind one of the best offensive lines in the Big Ten doesn’t hurt things. The line averages 315 pounds and will pave the way for another successful ground game.

Returning Starters on Defense – 2 This is where many feel that the Buckeyes are going to struggle this season since nine players are gone including six players that were taken in the first four rounds of the NFL draft. There are definitely going to be some learning curves with the new players especially since six of the new starters are just sophomores. Replacing the best linebacking unit in the country will be the most difficult challenge but Marcus Freeman and John Kerr do bring in excellent speed and athleticism. The defensive line will be the strength to start the season as the two returning starters are tackles David Patterson and Quinn Pitcock. The front seven put together the top ranked rushing defense in the country last season, allowing just 73.4 ypg and 2.2 ypc. The secondary also needs to start from scratch and that is where three of the sophomores will line up. Cornerback Malcolm Jenkins is the leading returning tackler and is a solid shutdown corner.

Schedule - The road back to the Fiesta Bowl will be difficult but it is not impossible. The season starts with a tough home game against Northern Illinois, a team that the Buckeyes cannot look past. On deck is the rematch with Texas, a game that Ohio St. lost at home in the final seconds last season. Two wins against Cincinnati and Bowling Green round out the non-conference slate. The Big Ten schedule gets underway with another revenge game, this one at home against Penn St. A tough trip to Iowa follows that but then it should be five straight wins in the conference. The most difficult game in that stretch will be against an improved Michigan St. team on the road. Following back-to-back road games at Illinois and Northwestern, Ohio St. hosts Michigan in its annual showdown. In total there are just six teams on the slate that went to a bowl game last year.

You can bet on… While the defense carried the Buckeyes early on in 2005, it will be just the opposite this year. Ohio St. has averaged 31.2 ppg over its last 18 games when the offense started to click and it should be even more explosive this season. Smith and Ginn Jr. are both Heisman candidates and having two such players is a luxury that most teams don’t and will never possess. The Buckeyes will be laying a lot of heavy points this season and even with the potentially potent offensive attack, that might not help. Ohio St. is just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when laying three touchdowns or more. That is the identical record against the number since 2002 when laying points on the road. Coming in with such high expectations, expect the Buckeyes to be overvalued in many spots in 2006.

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