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Alabama Crimson Tide 2006 Preview

Online Predictions By: Matt Fargo
Alabama Crimson Tide Football Preview
Matt Fargo remains the NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional Handicappers League --- get his premium plays here.

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

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#28 – Alabama Crimson Tide 10-2 SU; 4-7-1 ATS

Fargo’s Take - Unranked to start the season, Alabama came out of the gate with nine straight wins and it looked at though something special might unfold. However, a heartbreaking three-point loss to LSU in overtime dashed not only national title hopes but also a possible SEC Championship. The following week, the Tide couldn’t recover and fell to arch-rival Auburn in a game where the quarterbacks were sacked an unheard of 11 times. Alabama did salvage the season with a solid win over Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. For the second straight year, the Tide finished second in the country in total defense but now with just four starters back, matching that ranking again will be tough to accomplish. The offense should be better despite the loss of quarterback Brodie Croyle and while an SEC title is not out of the question, it will take head coach Mike Shula’s best coaching job ever to attain it.

Returning Starters on Offense – 9 Croyle was 13-2 in his 15 career starts and while trying to replace that would be difficult for most teams, Alabama believes it has the right man for the job. Sophomore John Parker Wilson lacks experience but he makes up for it in talent and if he can get comfortable in the offense, the Tide can flourish. The offensive ppg average has decreased in each of the last four years but that run should come to an end. All of the starting receivers as well as both starting backs return this year which will take a ton of pressure off Wilson. Kenneth Darby, who rushed for 1,294 yards last season, will be the focal point early on. The offensive line allowed 37 sacks last season but four starters are back and the experience that those young guys got last year will go a long way in 2006.

Returning Starters on Defense – 4 No team allowed fewer points per game than what Alabama allowed in 2005. Auburn was the only team to score more than 21 points on the Tide and they held Texas Tech to a season low 10 points. Things are not going to be as dominant this season but the cupboard isn’t bare despite the return of only four starters. The defensive line will be the strength again with two starters coming back as well as end Bobby Greenwood, who was a freshman All-American, filling in on one side. Juwan Simpson is the only starting linebacker returning but keep an eye out for senior Terrance Jones who will be a force. The secondary is full of depth but there is a lack of standouts especially at both safety positions. The defense will take a step back but not a big one as defensive coordinator Joe Kines, regarded as one of the best in the country, will find a way to get it done.

Schedule - A very favorable schedule had a lot to do with the strong start Alabama had last season but that will not be the case in 2006. The Tide do start out with three easy home games against Hawaii, Vanderbilt and La-Monroe but then back-to-back road tilts at Arkansas and Florida will pose huge challenges. It’s back home for two wins against Duke and Mississippi before another tough road trip to Tennessee. Another slight break comes next with sure win games against Florida International and Mississippi St. and then it’s déjà vu all over again with games against LSU and Auburn to end the season. Eight home games are certainly a nice thing to have on the schedule but road games at Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee and LSU are not. Missing Kentucky and South Carolina doesn’t help matters either.

You can bet on… The big question to be answered is whether last year was an overachieving fluke or if Alabama is back to once again be a perennial contender. The latter is the likely answer since this team is just finally starting to recover from the probation and reduced scholarships that were imposed. A year like last season will have many recruits wanting to come to Tuscaloosa. Despite the ten-win season last year, backers had their wallets emptied as the Tide went just 4-7-1 against the number. They went just 2-6 ATS as a favorite and that can be attributed to the offense not being able to put up enough points to cover. That should change this year with a stronger offense but it will boil down to the defense and exactly how much regression there will be from last season.

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