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Texas Tech Red Raiders 2006 Preview

Online Predictions By: Matt Fargo
Texas Tech Red Raiders Football Preview
Matt Fargo remains the NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional Handicappers League --- get his premium plays here.

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

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#25 – Texas Tech Red Raiders 9-3 SU; 4-6 ATS

Fargo’s Take - Texas Tech led the nation in passing for a 5th straight season in 2005 and even though the Red Raiders will be breaking in a fifth different quarterback in five years, expect more of the same. The difference is that in the past four years, a 5th year senior has taken over and this season, it will be a relatively untested sophomore. Graham Harrell played in six games last season, mostly in late blowout contests so things could be dicey early on. However, word is that he knows the offense and will come out firing. The defense was a pleasant surprise last season, improving in all categories for a third straight year. Contending for a Big XII title depends on if the Red Raiders can get by Texas and Oklahoma as they are just 2-8 combined against the two teams the last five years. It sets up favorable getting Texas at home and playing a now weaker Oklahoma team on the road.

Returning Starters on Offense – 8 Last season, Texas Tech averaged the second most amount of points in the six years that Mike Leach has been the head coach. The average can go up this year as the majority of the offense returns but it all hinges on how quick Harrell can get comfortable running the “Air Raid” offense. Record-breaking running back Taurean Henderson is gone but sophomore Shannon Woods, who averaged 7.0 ypc last season, should fill in admirably. Harrell will have the luxury of the top four receivers coming back, three of which grabbed at least 65 passes last season. Also retuning is four of the five offensive linemen so expect the 36 sacks from a season ago to decrease. Quarterbacks have completed at least at least 65 percent of their passes in each of the last five years.

Returning Starters on Defense – 5 Defensively, the Red Raiders do have some questions, namely in the secondary, but numerous players who were injured last season will be making their returns across the defense. All three players in the secondary will be new so a regression from the 15th ranked passing defense is likely. Even though the chart shows only five starters coming back, in reality it is seven with defensive end Seth Nitschmann and linebacker Brock Stratton coming back after missing most of last season with injuries. Six of those seven returnees are seniors so there shouldn’t be much of a falloff from the 30th ranked defense from a season ago. The rushing defense allowed the fewest yards per carry since 2000 while the 180 ypg allowed through the air was also the fewest since 2000.

Schedule - Cupcakes were prominent on the early schedule last season but now things will get a little tougher. Non-conference home games against SMU and SE Louisiana will not be a problem but two road games against UTEP and TCU will not be easy. The Big XII slate starts off with a difficult road game at Texas A&M followed by three games that should all be won – a home games against Missouri and road games at Colorado and Iowa St. Three of the final four games are at home but that obviously includes Texas coming to Lubbock and traveling to Norman to face the Sooners. Home games against Baylor and Oklahoma St. rounds out the schedule. After having only four road games last year, Texas Tech has six this season.

You can bet on… The Red Raiders always seem to be right on the cusp of breaking through in the conference but they have yet to be able to win the big games when they count. Being undefeated heading into a showdown with Texas for the second straight season is a definite possibility but there must be some minor upsets along the way. With 13 starting seniors, this could be the last chance for a while. The books have finally caught up to the Red Raiders’ totals as they have gone 14-7 under over the last two years. A lot of that has been because of an improved defense and seeing that the stop unit should be above average in 2006, the value should once again lie in the under. The public loves taking the over in Texas Tech games and that will be the case again this season.

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