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Ole Miss Rebels 2006 Preview

Ole Miss Rebels Football Preview By: Matt Fargo
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college football previews :#71 – Ole Miss Rebels Preview

by: Matt Fargo

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#71 – Ole Miss Rebels 3-8 SU; 3-7 ATS

Fargo’s Take - After seven straight seven-win seasons, the Rebels have fallen on hard times with only seven wins combined over the last two years. Head coach Ed Orgeron is in his second season and even though the victories were down in 2005, he made an impact. He cleaned house and is ready to make a mark in 2006. The offense was one of the worst in the country so Orgeron brought in former Miami (Florida) offensive coordinator Dan Werner to pump some life into the unit. Transfers are going to play significant roles this season and the Rebels have two of the best in quarterback Brent Schaeffer (Tennessee) and running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Indiana). The defense turned out to be one of the best in the country and should be rock solid once against despite losing the entire defensive line. Ole Miss averaged only 13.5 ppg last season which was over 20 points less per game than what is averaged just two years ago. New personnel will get the Rebels back on track and a winning season is quite possible.

Returning Starters on Offense – 4 Werner will be bringing in the Hurricanes style of offense to a team that had no clue a season ago. The Rebels finished 111th in total offense and 116th in scoring offense and in order for Ole Miss to get back to its winning ways, those rankings obviously need to come up. The signing of Schaeffer is huge. He transferred from Tennessee because of lack of playing time and his JC numbers last season were outstanding. The big concern is finding receivers to throw to since the leading returning catch man is converted quarterback Robert Lane who is now at tight end. Of the three wideouts, there is a total of one catch between them, not a very good sign. The offensive line should be much better with new line coach Art Kehoe, also from Miami, taking over and his number one goal is to make his players open holes for Green-Ellis who should spark a rushing attack that averaged a mere 73.3 ypg and 2.4 ypc.

Returning Starters on Defense – 5 The Rebels finished 27th in total defense and 31st in scoring defense in 2005 and it will once again be asked to keep the games within reach. Ole Miss allowed 13 points or fewer in four games last year but the unit weakened at the end of the season, likely because of all the time that it spent on the field. Only five starters are back and the entire line needs to be replaced but there is some promising talent to take over. There is solid experience along the line and the replacements are actually bigger and faster. The back seven is the strength led by linebacker Patrick Willis, who had to sit out spring practices but it expected to be back in the fall. The secondary is solid as it finished 4th in the SEC and 14th in the country in passing defense while allowing only 12 touchdowns the entire season. Orgeron also serves as the defensive coordinator and he obviously picked up a few things when serving under Pete Carroll at USC.

Schedule - Seven home games are on the schedule in 2006 and that alone could spell bowl bid. The home schedule can be considered relatively easy with non-conference games against Memphis, Wake Forest and Northwestern St. In SEC action, the two home games that are challenging are games against Georgia and Auburn while the other two, Vanderbilt and Mississippi, should both be won. The Rebels have only one non-conference road game at Missouri and that game could be a pivotal one even though it’s very early in the season. SEC road games at Alabama, Arkansas and LSU are losses but at least the Rebels avoid Florida and Tennessee out of the East Division. The home finale against Mississippi St. will carry a lot of revenge.

You can bet on… This team is heading in the right direction and while it can take new coaches a long time to rebuild programs, Orgeron is ahead of schedule. He has done his best to solve the offensive issues and the Rebels, who scored more than 20 points only two times last year, should be much improved. If the offensive line can come through, we could see some special things in Oxford. Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS as a favorite over the last two years and it will be in that role right from the beginning against Memphis in its opener. The Rebels are the better team and should be able to pick up the win but knowing that they are 7-14 ATS in non-conference action since 1999 is a big concern.