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Air Force Falcons 2006 Preview

Air Force Football Preview By: Matt Fargo
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college football previews :#89 – Air Force Falcons Preview

by: Matt Fargo

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#89 – Air Force Falcons 4-7 SU; 5-6 ATS

Fargo’s Take - There is talk out of Colorado Springs that this is likely the last season for legendary head coach Fisher DeBerry win or lose. The Falcons have suffered back-to-back losing seasons for the first time in the DeBerry era and things don’t look much better in 2006 for that string to be broken. The defense has been the problem in each of the last two years, allowing more than 31 ppg during both seasons. It doesn’t look like it will improve much this time around as it is once again a very undersized unit with not a lot of starting experience around. The offense was very good and it was the most balanced attack that DeBerry has ever had on the field. The Falcons averaged 170.7 ypg through the air but it will be difficult to match that output this year with a very green receiving corps. Air Force finished with seven losses a season ago but four of those were by three points or less. Those are the games that will need to be taken this year for there to be any chance of a winning campaign.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 The option attack remains the bread and butter of the offense but the 246.6 ypg on the ground was the lowest since 1997. There is no breakaway speed at running back and quarterback Shaun Carney averaged just 4.2 ypc, an average that is well below the standard for Air Force signal callers. The Falcons scored 35 or more points five times last season and their 30 ppg was good for 30th in the country. The top returning catch leader is halfback Chad Hill, who caught 16 passes a season ago so someone is going to have to step up on the outside if Carney is going to have a season through the air similar to that of last year. It likely isn’t going to happen so the focus will be on the ground game and an offensive line that returns only one starter from last season.

Returning Starters on Defense – 5 The defense had only two solid games last season, both of which ended up being a victory. The offense, although strong, was not able to keep up with the opposition as the defense surrendered 31.7 ppg, 100th in the country. Total defense ranked 98th in the nation and the Falcons simply couldn’t get the ball from their opponents as their 17 takeaways were near the bottom in the nation. Only five starters are back and three of those need to replaced along the defensive line. Defensive end Gilberto Perez is an All-MWC possibility but other than that, there is not a lot in the cupboard. Air Force was 112th in the country in passing efficiency defense and that will have to improve immensely for it to compete in the conference where there will be a lot of solid passing attacks coming their way.

Schedule - The Falcons start the season at what looks to be a very improved Tennessee squad which is then followed by their conference opener at Wyoming, a team that will be doing some rebuilding. Three straight home games are after that including a non-conference game against Navy, their first in the Commander-in-Chief Trophy series. Air Force then rotates home and road games until a pair of daunting home games against Notre Dame and Utah arrive in mid-November. The season ends with roadies at UNLV and TCU. It’s not the most difficult of slates but it certainly is not easy especially with the Volunteers and Fighting Irish part of it.

You can bet on… The kids will give everything they have for DeBerry in what looks to be his final season with the Falcons. Three straight losing seasons will mean he won’t be going out in his own power but with what he has done for the program, announcing his firing isn’t going to happen as it will be handled in a different matter. Air Force has not had a winning ATS record in the last three seasons but this could be the year that changes. There are not a lot of high expectations for the Falcons this year meaning they will likely be seeing a good number of points throughout the season. The value should be on their side most of the time but with a defense that is likely going to struggle once again, they will be leaving the front door wide open.