#8 – LSU Tigers 11-2 SU; 6-5-1 ATS
Fargo’s Take
- With 33 wins over the last three years,
the Tigers have become one of the most dominant
teams in the SEC and in the country for that matter.
First year head coach Les Miles led LSU to 11
wins last season and if not for a heartbreaking
loss at home against Tennessee, the Tigers would
have been undefeated heading into the SEC Championship
against Georgia. A thrashing of Miami (Florida)
in the Peach Bowl put an exclamation point on
another successful campaign. In order for the
Tigers to repeat that performance or even possibly
improve, they must replace key players all over
the field, especially on defense. The offense
has plenty of weapons once again but a thin and
inexperienced offensive line must step up right
away. The potential is there for another trip
to the title game but standing in their way are
four tough road games, highlighted by Auburn,
a team the Tigers visit in the third game of the
season.
Returning Starters
on Offense – 5 LSU enters this season
with the top ranked offense in the SEC and that
is due to having not only the best quarterbacks
but also the best receivers. JaMarcus Russell
had a sensational 2005 season before hurting his
shoulder in the SEC Championship but he will be
ready to go even though he missed spring drills.
His backup is Matt Flynn who led the Tigers to
that win over the Hurricanes to close out the
year. Three of the top four receivers are back
led by All-SEC Wideout Dwayne Bowe. Juniors Craig
Davis and Early Doucet are both also ready for
huge seasons. Alley Brousard, LSU’s leader
rusher in 2004 is back after missing all of last
season and he will be backed up by Justin Vincent
who rushed for 488 yards last season as a second
string. Three NFL drafted players need to replaced
along the offensive line, the biggest concern
heading into fall.
Returning Starters
on Defense – 5 The Tigers finished
3rd in both total defense and scoring defense
last season and LSU won’t falloff big despite
needing to replace six starters. The secondary
is going to be the best in the SEC with safeties
LaRon Landry and Jessie Daniels both being preseason
All-SEC selections. Chevis Jackson, another possible
All-SEC selection, will man one of the corner
slots. The front seven took the biggest hit and
despite five projected starters being just sophomores,
there is an abundance of talent. Linebacker Ali
Highsmith, the leading returning tackler, will
lead that unit while defensive end Chase Pittman
will lead the front four. Tackle Glen Dorsey is
ready for a breakout season. All told, this is
a young defense but one that picked up good experience
last season that will help right from the start.
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Schedule
- Despite having eight home games, the Tigers
do not have an easy schedule to contend with.
Starting the season against La-Lafayette will
be a good test for the young defense. After that,
the Tigers stay home to face a tough Arizona squad
before hitting the road for the first time against
Auburn in an all-important early season contest.
The next three home games are all easy wins against
Tulane, Mississippi St. and Kentucky but sandwiched
in there is a tough road game at Florida. Following
the Kentucky game, the Tigers host their last
non-conference game against Fresno St. The third
road game is at Tennessee followed by home games
against Alabama and Mississippi. The finale is
at Little Rock against Arkansas. The benefit of
the slate is that there are two home games in-between
every road contest.
You can bet on…
The four toughest games in the SEC all happen
to come on the road so the success in those will
determine how far the Tigers go. LSU went 5-1
away from home last season but the competition
was no where near as difficult. It went 4-5 in
road games in 2002 and 2004 which are the same
types of road schedules it will face this season.
The Tigers are 11-5-1 ATS since 1999 as road underdogs
and they could be in that situation in all four
contests this year depending how the season is
moving along. LSU is definitely going to be a
target this year after what it did in 2005 so
another winning ATS mark on the highway will be
a challenge. The games at Florida, Auburn and
Arkansas will all be revenge games that the Tigers
won by a combined nine points last year.
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