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UNLV Runnin' Rebels 2006 Preview

UNLV Football Preview By: Matt Fargo
Matt Fargo remains the NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional Handicappers League --- get his premium plays here.

college football previews :#96 – UNLV Runnin’ Rebels Preview

by: Matt Fargo

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#96 – UNLV Runnin’ Rebels 2-9 SU; 2-7-1 ATS

Fargo’s Take - This is the second year of the Mike Sanford era and things can’t get much worse than what we saw on the field in 2005. The Rebels averaged just 18.8 ppg in their new spread offense, their lowest average in seven years and the sixth straight season of that average going down. There is reason for optimism and that comes from USC transfer quarterback Rocky Hinds who took the majority of the snaps in the spring and looked very sharp. He has not played competitive football in three years but any change should be an improvement. On the other side, the Rebels allowed 44 ppg over their final five games and finished the season ranked 109th in scoring defense. A lot of the players that remained from the John Robinson regime did not buy into the new systems on either side of the ball but with a significant amount of JUCO transfers entering this year, the new blood should turn things around. With only four wins over the last two seasons, UNLV has no where to go but up.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 The Rebels scored more than 30 points only twice all of last season and that is considerably paltry coming from a spread offense. It was the first year of the new look offense and with the addition of Hinds, more production is a guarantee. The running game was very ineffective but the return of tailback Erick Jackson will help as will the return of four offensive line starters. Injuries hit the line hard last season and with those players healthy once again along with a solid recruiting class, the line could actually be a strength this season. The lone troublesome spot is at receiver where the leading returning pass catcher is Jackson. There isn’t much experience outside due to transfers so the youngsters are going to have to step up quickly led by JUCO transfer Aaron Straiten.

Returning Starters on Defense – 5 This defense allowed totals of 42, 42, 55 and 51 points down the stretch last season so there is not a whole bunch of momentum heading into 2006. The problem area was the secondary, which finished 90th against the pass, but that area could be the backbone of the defense this time around. The corners are led by standout John Guice and he will have help on the other side in the form of former USC starter Eric Wright. The safeties are experienced and also welcome Oklahoma transfer Tony Cade. There are two potential All-MWC players at linebacker while nose tackle Howie Fuimaono is a future NFL star. All said, this unit could have one of the biggest turnarounds in the country as long as the offense does its part and doesn’t rely on the defense to win.

Schedule - The non-conference schedule is not overly difficult with two home games along with road contests at Iowa St. and Hawaii. The home games are against Idaho St. and rival Nevada, one of the top teams in the WAC. The conference schedule is where the real difficulty lies and not because the MWC is overly strong this season. The Rebels face the top five teams in their first five games with three of those coming on the road. If the team jells early and does what it is capable of doing, some upsets can happen and then UNLV can coast home with three winnable games down the stretch. On the flip side, the early conference slate can knock UNLV down early and it can turn into an instant reply of 2005.

You can bet on… This team has the chance to be the sleeper of the MWC as the amount of JUCO transfers is enormous. Stanford went that route to get his own players on the field and leave the Robinson era in the dust. As long as his players don’t quit like some did last season, he should have a substantially positive turnaround. Underachieving was once again rampant last year as the Rebels went 0-3 ATS as favorites are now just 3-14 ATS as chalk over the last four years. Non-covers usually lead to non-wins straight up so UNLV needs to beat the teams it is supposed to if it has any chance of a .500 season, let alone a crack at the MWC title. The latter still looks to be a season away as long as there is improvement in 2006.