Saturday Jan 1 2005 -
Last Updated at 11:29am
By: David
Bachman
Fantasy Football
Editor For WagerOnFootball.com
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Miami (4-11-0) at Baltimore (8-7-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 1:00:00 PM EDT
Field - Turf of M & T Bank Stadium
Baltimore are 10 point favorites. The total for this game
has been set at 34.5. 
The Dolphins are on a two game winning streak while the
Ravens have dropped their last two - time for a correction
or the Ravens playoff hopes are gone. Update: A.J. Feeley
is expected to miss this game and Sage Rosenfels will take
the start. I am adjusting the numbers downward since Rosenfels
is showing a very bad sense of timing on when to become
a starter. Marty Booker remains unlikely to play and Derrius
Thompson has improved enough that he should play the #2
role. Jamal Lewis is slated to play about 20 plays this
week and Chester Taylor will figure in more heavily. Todd
Heap has not practiced this week with a sprained ankle but
is expected to play. I am lowering his numbers slightly.
Expecting anything from a wideout other than Heap won't
likely result in any appreciable fantasy numbers against
the Dolphins. If Boller did score, it would almost certainly
be to Heap but as noted, a passing score is not in keeping
with the trends of Boller or the Miami defense.
New Orleans (7-8-0) at Carolina (7-8-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 1:00:00 PM EDT
Field - Grass of Bank of America Stadium
Carolina are 7 point favorites. The total for this game
has been set at 46.
This is a rematch of week 13 when the Panthers won 32-21.
Both teams are in the race for the final NFC wildcard and
since this is an early game, there's no way of knowing what
will impact the winner and loser. Just win is all that both
teams will be concerned about this week. Pre-Game
Notes - The Saints are on a three game winning streak that
included two road games in Dallas and Tampa Bay. They actually
have a better record on the road (4-3) than they do at home
(3-5). The Panther defense has been good against
the run and allowed only one rushing score in the last six
weeks. Look for Mcallister to start fairly well but the
second half to be all about the pass with Brooks joining
the last three other quarterbacks that had multiple scores
against the Panthers.
This game should turn
more into a shootout than the first one was.Horn and Stallworth
both have already scored on the Panthers this season and
for whatever reason, the Saints are now playing even better
on the road. Muhsin Muhammad has been big this season, but
never bigger than three weeks ago when he had 179 yards
against the Saints though he only scored once. Keary Colbert
only had one catch in the last meeting. Muhammad had five
scores in the last four games and never ended with less
than 98 yards. Both these offenses are playing as well as
they have all season and while the defenses have both stepped
up, they can hold out for only so long.
Cleveland (3-12-0) at Houston (7-8-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 1:00:00 PM EDT
Field - Grass of Reliant Stadium
Houston are 11 point favorites. The total for this game
has been set at 41.
The season mercifully ends for
the Browns while the Texans are looking at finishing with
a .500 season - at home no less.Update: Holcomb is
now expecting to start in spite of still having soreness
from his cracked ribs. Pre-Game
Notes - Close did not count last week in Miami and the reality
is that the Browns have lost their last nine games and no
one worries much about playing them since a final drive
to win can always be made. They don't catch a break here
either with the Texans motivated to win big in their final
home game. Lee Suggs faces a defense that has been
good against the rush in the last two months. Only Edgerrin
James topped 100 yards in Houston during that time and that
required 28 carries. Look for a moderate to good game by
Suggs, but the better that Suggs does just means the worse
the rest of the Browns end up.
The Texans come off
their first ever shut out of an opponent. In Jacksonville,
they faced a team without Fred Taylor and one concussion
to Leftwich left them without a passing game either. Antonio
Bryant pulls the matchup with the rookie Dunta Robinson
which is getting to be more something to avoid than to exploit.
Look for the passing game to work better this week since
the Browns will need to throw and the Texans secondary has
been suspect other than the developing Robinson.The Texans
are ending the year on a high note and this will be just
the game to send off 2004 with a smile. This should prove
to be the Domanick Davis show going against a defense that
almost always is ripped by runners. Whatever is left over
for the passing game will likely be little more than one
touchdown and that would strongly favor Andre Johnson who
would enjoy a final touchdown at home.
Cincinnati (7-8-0) at Philadelphia (13-2-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 1:00:00 PM EDT
Field - Grass of Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia are 4 point favorites. The total for this game
has been set at 41.
The Bengals catch a break by facing
the Eagles when they no longer care - abundantly proven
last Monday night. Update: Palmer still has not fully
practiced and is expected to only be the #2 quarterback
this week. Kitna will take his third straight start. Pre-Game
Notes - This game is a chance that the Bengals can do the
unthinkable - end up with a .500 record and when a season
has as many wins as losses - that's a success for a franchise
that has languished near the bottom for years. Rudi
Johnson may be playing his final game for the Bengals -
it depends on what happens to the soon to be free agent
though the Bengals would like him to remain if possible.
Money will be the question. He's been everything that they
need, the question is how easily he might be replaced. The
rookie Chris Perry was a bust for 2004 since he languished
with injuries and ended the season with a hernia surgery.
The Eagles pretty much
laid down last week against the Rams and have nothing to
play for other than keeping players healthy. Talking about
wanting to win sounds good, but there is no reason why they
will put any player in significant harms way.Expect that
Rudi Johnson wraps up the season with a nice bang here.
Steven Jackson ripped thought the Eagles last week and Johnson
will undoubtedly get some nice opportunities here. Playing
in Philly will make the game a bit tougher than the Rams
just had in St. Louis, but Johnson should be a very safe
play since Perry is out of the equation. Just assume that
more of the folly from Monday night shows up. The Eagles
may use McNabb, Pinkston and Mitchell in the first series,
but anything more than that is almost impossible. The Eagles
will end the season with running Levens and Mahe and throwing
whatever they can to McMullen and Lewis.This is a home game,
but the fans have to understand - better to tank now and
win later with healthy players.
Detroit (6-9-0) at Tennessee (4-11-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 1:00:00 PM EDT
Field - Grass of The Coliseum
Tennessee are 1 point underdogs. The total for this game
has been set at 45.5.
SHere's a messy game pitting the inconsistent Lions against
the Titans who just want the season to end. The Volek/Bennett
magic died last week, bringing with it the giggling hopes
of many fantasy teams. Pre-Game Notes - The Lions come off
a close win over the visiting Bears and the only truly positive
aspect coming out of this year is that Roy Williams is very
good when the ball actually reaches him and Kevin Jones
means the Lions can enter the 2005 season with one less
hole to fill. The Titans have not allowed less than 31 points
to each of their last five opponents and all came in losses.
The season concludes without Brown or McNair or any sign
of a defense. the Billy Volek train finally found the train
tracks blocked by Denver and right when every fantasy owner
needed him most, he flopped for his season worst 111 yards
on only eight completions. With two interceptions. No scores.
Roy Williams should
enjoy the Titan secondary this week. He had 104 yards and
two scores against the Vikings but almost nothing for the
other seven games before that. This could evolve back into
a nice passing game by Volek since the Lions can allow multiple
touchdowns though they have improved here in the last month
thanks to a softer schedule. Expect that Volek turns in
at least two scores if he is healthy enough to play and
that could favor either Bennett or Mason. The
biggest problem here is how well the Lions can control the
game with Jones rushing. If Jones gets into gear, it will
depress the scores and yards.
Pittsburgh (14-1-0) at Buffalo (9-6-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 1:00:00 PM EDT
Field - Turf of Ralph Wilson Stadium
Buffalo are 9 point favorites. The total for this game has
been set at 34.
The Steelers have wrapped up the #1 seed regardless of what
happens here while the Bills need a win and a little help
to be in and a loss to be out. This is an early game and
the results of the Denver game are not until later that
afternoon. The Steelers will look at this game as a warm
up for the playoffs or more appropriately as, a cool down
from the season. This is a chance to get some playing time
for Maddox and Staley but not a reason to risk an injury
to a starter. Don't be shocked if Burress and Ward do not
play a full game - there's no reason for it. The Steelers
have everything in hand and some time before they begin
their march in the playoffs. Big Ben will probably take
the week off and I figure Bettis and others will not put
in much time. All in all the Steelers played a good game
against the Ravens and held them to minimal yards. Other
than a Jamal Lewis TD run in the first quarter they really
held the Ravens in check. Look for Maddox to get most of
the playing time and may have limited success passing the
ball. I think the Bills defense will probably bring the
kitchen sink to send a message. I would stay away from any
Steeler players.
The Steelers bring in
one of the top defenses in the NFL but there's that whole
motivation question this week. Expect that McGahee easily
surpasses the 66 yard average allowed by the Steelers with
a chance at a 100 yard game if Pittsburgh folds the tents
up early.Bledsoe won't need to press too much to win this
game since a good defense against Maddox will likely yield
some nice field position. The scoring won't be too high
this week but the Bills have every motivation to win while
the Steelers have none. How that plays out will depend on
how many Steelers starters play and for how long. Lee Evans
is the star now, he has scored in each of the last five
games and has topped 90 yards three times in that time.
He usually gets to try one end-around per game as well.
Evans is becoming everything that Peerless Price was, even
if Moulds has dropped off to being only a marginal fantasy
player now.
Green Bay (9-6-0) at Chicago (5-10-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 1:00:00 PM EDT
Field - Grass of Soldier Field
Chicago are 2.5 point underdogs. The total for this game
has been set at 36.5.
Even though Green Bay has clinched, you won't see Brett
Favre taking this game off. Good ol' Brett has a great relationship
with the football gods and he's right in line for a nice
performance to cap off the year.The Packers should see good
games from Favre, Javon Walker, Donald Driver and RB Tony
Fisher, who should shoulder most of the load instead of
Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport. TE Bubba Franks may also
be a good play, although he is not that successful on the
road. IDP options include LB Nick Barnett, lineman KGB and
DB Darren Sharper.The Bears have RB Thomas Jones, and that's
about it. I'm really sorry, but what can I say? Everyone
else is way to inconsistent to warrant a tart. On defense,
I like a few guys, including DB Jerry Azumah, LB Lance Briggs,
LB Hunter Hillenmeyer (watch his ankle injury) and DB Mike
Green.
Chad Hutchinson is the fourth
Chicago quarterback this season, three since Grossman played
against Green Bay in week two. He only had 132 yards and
one score in that game and Hutchinson should do better against
a team that is just punching a clock this week. Look for
plenty of Thomas Jones here and he should end up with a
good game. Outside of him the effort will be mostly passing
for first down though one passing score could happen. This
is a trash game by the Packers so anything is possible.
San Francisco (2-13-0) at New England
(13-2-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 1:00:00 PM EDT
Field - Grass of Gillette Stadium
New England are 14.5 point favorites. The total for this
game has been set at 41.
This is a great way for the 49ers to end the worst season
in franchise history. On the road against the reigning world
champs that already have a chip on their shoulder from getting
beaten by the Dolphins. Update:
Brandon Lloyd has missed practice this week due to a sprained
foot and remains questionable to play. I am removing him
from the projections though he has not been ruled out yet.
As for the entire Patriot crew, there's no telling how long
any of the starters will play but I am including Cedric
Cobbs since he is expected to get some playing time with
Dillon needing to be protected and both Kevin Faulk and
Patrick Pass questionable to play this week.
Eric Johnson may be the most
productive tight end ever for the 49ers, but most of that
came in two games when he had 23 catches and 275 yards.
He's barely totaled that many yards in the ten games since
and has not scored since week five. The 49ers are certainly
the worst team in the league. They just looked horrible
at home against the Bills. I know the Bills are very good
but you would think they could at least score a TD before
garbage time. Barlow has got to be the biggest bust of the
year. He just couldn't get used to being the big man on
campus. Without a decent passing game and defense you just
can't do it all. The 49ers will be terrible for years to
come and we will see what changes are made in the off-season.
They will get pummeled in this game the same as last week.
NY Jets (10-5-0) at St. Louis (7-8-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 1:00:00 PM EDT
Field - Turf of Edward Jones Dome
St. Louis are 2 point favorites. The total for this game
has been set at 43.
This is another one where both teams have something to play
for. Neither is assured a post-season birth but both can
get one with a win. The Jets win and they lock up the #5
seed with an 11-5 record. If they lose, they need help.
The Rams win and they still are in contention with some
help and if they lose, they are out. The Rams benefited
from the Eagles packing it in until the playoffs begin.
They were pressed in the first quarter but had the great
Ty Detmer and Jeff Blake to deal with after that. Bulger
got back on track and played a good game. He had 225 yards
and a TD. I think it is safe to say the passing of the torch
has happened. Stephen Jackson had a great game with 147
yards and a TD. They really need to run the ball to win
this one. They just can't rely on the pass or they will
lose. Marshall Faulk still needs to be a factor. Play Bulger,
Holt, Jackson, and Bruce.
The Jets will bring one of the
best defenses that the Rams have faced all season and not
one opponent has thrown for more than two scores or 280
yards in the best case. Bulger will be challenged enough
to meet the two scores and anything over 220 yards will
be among the highest allowed games by the Jets this season.The
Jets have not allowed an opponent running back to run for
more than 89 yards in the last seven games and have only
allowed two rushing scores in that time as well. For the
Rams to score points, it will have to come through the air.
The Rams rush defense looks better than it really is since
their schedule has actually been largely devoid of big-time
running backs. Expect that Martin turns in at least a moderate
game but he won't likely get very big if he follows his
trends or that of the Rams at home. Pennington should manage
two scores here against a secondary that has allowed at
least that many to most opponents this season. His yardage
should peter out after he crests 200 yards and Martin should
have enough of a load this week to cut down on the number
of plays anyway.
Minnesota (8-7-0) at Washington (5-10-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 1:00:00 PM EDT
Field - Grass of FedEx Field
Washington are 4.5 point underdogs. The total for this game
has been set at 41.
The Redskins come off their most recent bad mojo loss to
the Cowboys, waiting until the final 30 seconds before yielding
to fate. The Vikings had everything on the line last week
against the Packers and fell short at home. Now they have
to win here to ensure a playoff spot. A loss does not preclude
a wildcard even at 8-8 because, hey, this is the NFC. The
Vikings had a chance to put the division away last week
but choked at the mere sight of Brett Favre less than 2
minutes with the ball and timeouts. Culpepper had some good
numbers going in the first half but let up and had no TDS
in the 2nd. That hurt some owners out there. But not near
as much as Moss catching 2 balls for one TD. He was in obvious
pain and probably should not have been out there. Burleson
looks like the real deal as he had another 100-yard game
and a score. Again he had nothing in the 2nd half as well.
Bennett is now the man again in this offense and had a spectacular
game both receiving and running the ball. They will be motivated
this week as if they win they are in. Culpepper has been
nursing the flu but will have a good game. Play Moss, Bennett,
and Burleson as well. Don't forget about Wiggins as well.
The Skins got punked by a 40 year old and a rookie last
week gagging with 30 seconds on the clock. Clinton Portis
got hurt and really did nothing. Hopefully you were not
counting on him in the playoffs. He will be out as well
as many Redskin starters. It will be in D.C. so if you have
tickets to the game see if you can sell them. They will
get the crap kicked out of them anyway but certainly will
if their starters don't play an entire game. I wouldn't
start anyone from this team, as they will be hard pressed
to get passed the 50-yard line. They will be lucky to score
6 points much less stay within 6.
Tampa Bay (5-10-0) at Arizona (5-10-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 4:05:00 PM EDT
Field - Grass of Sun Devil Stadium
Arizona are 2 point underdogs. The total for this game has
been set at 38.5.
This is a game with nothing more on the line than minimal
positioning for the 2005 NFL draft. Both teams spent a few
weeks this year looking very good and twice as many looking
not nearly good enough. That, appropriately, ends up 5-10.
The Bucs are on a three game losing streak and have fallen
apart since shutting out the Falcons in week 13. They come
off two straight losses at home and now play on the road
where they are only 1-6. Their only road win was that one
Falcon game. Brian Griese finishes out the season with having
scored in all eleven games that he started. With 20 touchdowns
over that span, he could have produced 30 scores in 16 weeks
with that pace. Problem lately is that Griese has been prolific
with 300+ yard games every other week but he has thrown
ten interceptions in the last six games.
Anquan Boldin finally scored a touchdown
this season when he had seven catches for 197 yards in Seattle
last week. That makes two 100 yard games in the last three
weeks and a sign that Boldin is finally clicking with McCown
and healthy again. Larry Fitzgerald still has not topped
100 yards in a game but he has scored twice in each of the
last two games and stands at eight touchdowns on the year.
I like Arizona to be a sleeper next year. They have played
admirably considering they have a new coach and some injuries.
Give Green some weapons and they might make some noise next
year. However this is 2004 and literally got ran over by
Alexander. They held him for a few quarters but allowed
him to take over in the 2nd half. They still had enough
courage to try and come back in the fourth. They have no
quit in them. Boldin and Fitzgerald should have good games
as the Bucs have been known to allow some passes this year.
But they will have a difficult time running the ball. Play
Boldin. Pittman will have a good game running the ball,
as the Cardinals really cannot stop anyone. I would play
Griese, Pittman, Galloway, and Clayton.
Atlanta (11-4-0) at Seattle (8-7-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 4:05:00 PM EDT
Field - Turf of Qwest Field
Seattle are 6.5 point favorites. The total for this game
has been set at 45.
Seattle needs the win here and get to face the visiting
Falcons who have nothing to win and everything to lose with
any injuries. This game should clinch the division and the
9-7 end to the season helps disguise the struggles of the
year. I am not changing my mind on this one - but
Michael Vick is expected to play at least some this week
as well T.J. Duckett but with nothing to win here and everything
to lose if anyone is injured, don't rely on any Falcons
this week. Hasselbeck is still
expected to play this week though he will not be 100%. This
game should be all about Shaun Alexander anyway. Shaun
Alexander leads the NFL in rushing yards (1616) and touchdowns
(19) - not bad for someone about to be a free agent. Seattle
won't likely go far in the playoffs since Alexander is all
they really have, so expect more of the excellent same from
Shaun this week. If Hasselbeck plays there could be some
decent passing numbers for Darrell Jackson but playing at
home against the Falcons who are only 4-3 on the road this
season anyway and now they have nothing to win? Rely on
Alexander and consider the rest as a big risk.
You don't risk the playoffs for a meaningless
week 17th game. The Falcons let the Saints win last weeks
game as they really just played the four quarters like zombies.
The only bright spot was Dunn who had 139 yards of offense
and a TD. He did this in only 3 quarters. I would say your
best bet would be to play Dunn and hope for the best. There
is just not going to be enough offense coming from the Falcons.
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Indianapolis (12-3-0) at Denver (9-6-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 4:15:00 PM EDT
Field - Grass of INVESCO Field at Mile High
Denver are 5.5 point favorites. The total for this game
has been set at 50.
The man named Manning finally surpassed Marino throwing
his 49th TD pass of the season. He had some trouble until
the 4th quarter. Listen folks the Chargers are for real.
They have the weapons and came OT away from beating the
Colts. In any event the Colts played some good ball with
Manning throwing for 383 yards and 2 TDS. Three receivers
went over 1000 yards on one team for the first time in history.
Stokely had another wonderful game with 123 yards and 1
TD. Harrison added another 111 yards. I would start Stokley
maybe. The rest will get some time off this week. Denver
on the other hand has their playoff lives to play for and
may meet the Colts again next week if they get in. Which
means the season will end next week at the latest. Denver
has no chance against the Colts next week however will be
able to handle them this week. Quite frankly I do not even
remember who the backup QB of the Colts is. Not even the
turnover machine Jake Plummer can screw this one up. By
the way they played a great game against the Titans. Play
Plummer, Smith, Droughns, and Lelie.
The Colts are locked in with the #3
seed and have to play on the road but there's been no word
that players will be rested. But reason says that the effort
will fall a little flatter now that the record does not
matter and all Manning will do is make his passing record
harder to break next year. The overtime win against the
Chargers added great drama to a game when several records
fell. When the smoke cleared, the Colts own the #3 best
record outright regardless of what happens this week. HC
Tony Dungy has said that the Colts want to win here for
their ninth consecutive victory and head into the playoffs
on a roll.
Kansas City (7-8-0) at San Diego (11-4-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 4:15:00 PM EDT
Field - Grass of Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego are 3 point underdogs. The total for this game
has been set at 58.
NThis is a replay of week 12 when the Chargers squeaked
out a 34-31 win in Kansas City.
The Chiefs held on to a 31-30 win last week against the
Raiders and while the offense has been prolific lately,
every game ends up as a track meet on the score board. The
best news for the Chiefs is that the Chargers are locked
as the #4 seed in the AFC and cannot win anything here.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry, and neither
does Dick Vermeil. It's fun to watch the Chargers having
such success, and the Chiefs faltering. Actually, Vermeil
will cry, you can almost bet on it.The Chiefs frustration
level must be at an all-time high, since they've got all
the weapons but no defense, a story as old as Vermeil. Go
with Trent Green, Larry Johnson, Eddie Kennison and Tony
Gonzalez. The Chargers should stay focused heading into
the playoffs, although Drew Brees, LaDainian Tomlinson,
Antonio Gates and Eric Parker may see limited playing time
in this one. You have to hope that Marty Schottenheimer
doesn't come from the Andy Reid school of moronic decision
making.
The effort here all depends on how
much the Chargers will try to win this game. They say they
will but you can be sure that the Chiefs will make them
keep scoring to stay ahead. I am going to assume that this
team is so new to the playoffs that they will play out the
entire game with starters but realize the risk is there
that some - particularly Tomlinson - will sit out part of
the game.Brees should be able
to light up the secondary as he already has and with Parker
playing well lately, he won't have to rely solely on Gates
or Tomlinson. Look for some wonderful fantasy points here
because the Chiefs defense has always allowed that.
Jacksonville (8-7-0) at Oakland (5-10-0)
Sunday, January 02, 2005 4:15:00 PM EDT
Field - Grass of Network Associates Coliseum
No line yet available on this game. No total yet available
on this game.
I really can't see the Raiders beating Jacksonville this
week with Byron Leftwich back from his concussion. The Jags
need this win more than any they've had this year and I
don't believe they'll let their fans down.The Jaguars
will see good games from Leftwich, RB Fred Taylor (watch
the injury report) and WR Jimmy Smith. The Raiders have
nothing to play for except spoiler, but will see something
out of WR Jerry Porter and one of their running backs. It's
just too hard to tell who it will be, since Amos Zereoue,
Justin Fargas and Zack Crockett split the carries. Kerry
Collins may have trouble cracking the Jacksonville secondary,
which plays tough in big AFC games. While both these teams
come off sour losses, the Jags getting shutout by the visiting
Texans should fire up the troops for a game they have to
win to reach the playoffs.Update:
Fred Taylor still has not practiced this week due to his
sprained knee and is very questionable to play. I am removing
him from the projections and inserting Greg Jones as the
more likely runner. He will be aided by Labrandon Toefield
as well.
Fred Taylor sat out last week with
a sprained knee ligament but he may be able to play depending
on practice Wednesday and Thursday. Greg Jones was ineffective
last week since he only had nine carries for 38 yards and
the Jags need Taylor to keep the sticks moving. Jimmy Smith
had been on a good roll for the last few weeks until the
implosion last Sunday. He's been good for at least 80 yards
a game or more when Leftwich is healthy. Troy Edwards remains
only a bit player in most games. The Jaguars rush defense
is plenty good enough to stop what little the Raiders may
try to do and it will be up to Collins. He'll be facing
a secondary that has shut down most opponents to only one
score and never more than two in the last seven games. Really
all the Raiders have is Porter to cover and the Jaguars
have enough to accomplish that. This game turns if the Jags
are not healthy, otherwise the Raiders will be challenged
to mount much offense
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