By: David
Bachman
Fantasy Football
Editor For WagerOnFootball.com
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NFL SPORTSBOOKS FANTASY
FOOTBALL MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Steelers at Giants
Kickoff: 1:30 p.m., Giants Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
Weather: Mostly sunny, high: 40, low: 37.
I don't think there's anybody you can play for
the Giants. You can't run on Pittsburgh, and they will
pressure the quarterback all day. Pittsburgh is first
overall on defense, second vs. the run and the unit allows
only 15 points a game ... For Pittsburgh, it looks like
RB Jerome Bettis will continue to get carries -- maybe
Duce Staley gets 65 percent of the carries and Bettis
35 percent, but Bettis will get it near the goal line
... A big factor for rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger is the
health of WR Plaxico Burress. When Burress is out of the
lineup, Roethlisberger is not nearly as productive. Pittsburgh
will attack the Giants front seven with RB Jerome Bettis,
who will receive 20-25 carries in the expected absence
of Duce Staley (hamstring, questionable). Success with
the run will create play-action opportunities for QB Ben
Roethlisberger, who should find WR Hines Ward open downfield
against CB Will Allen. The Steelers defense will put extra
defenders in the box to collapse RB Tiki Barber, who won't
find much success. QB Eli Manning will face constant blitzes
from LB Joey Porter and the league's top-ranked defense,
so expect the rookie to throw more interceptions than
touchdowns for the third time in four starts.
Redskins at 49ers Kickoff: 5 p.m., Monster
Park, San Francisco, Calif. Weather: Sunny, high: 63,
low: 50.
It's tough to run against Washington, and although RB
Maurice Hicks played pretty well last week, I don't think
he'll get much here ... Washington RB Clinton Portis carried
23 times last week against the Eagles and got the ball
near the goal line (he scored twice), and that bodes well
... The Redskins are passing more down the stretch, which
might make WR Laveranues Coles a play here. Redskins TE
Chris Cooley has eight receptions, 96 yards and one TD
in the past two weeks. ... 49ers TE Eric Johnson has four
receptions, 28 yards and no TDs in his past two starts.
Panthers at Falcons Kickoff: 8:30 p.m., Georgia Dome,
Atlanta, Ga. Weather: Dome.
I like Carolina RB Nick Goings in this game. Carolina
has averaged 28.2 points in its last six games ... Goings
has four straight 100-yard games and Atlanta has not been
as good against the run as they were earlier in the season
(they are 10th in run defense, but were ranked No. 1 early
on) ... QB Jake Delhomme has quietly passed for more than
3,000 yards, and you can pass against the Falcons ...
WR Muhsin Muhammad has nine TDs in his last seven games
... It seems that teams have figured out how to control
Michael Vick in the passing game, but he can still be
productive here as a runner, along with RB Warrick Dunn.
Keep in mind that RB T.J. Duckett and FB Justin Griffith
are out for this game, so that could change things. Muhammad
has 16 receptions, 277 yards and two TDs in his past two
starts. ... Falcons TE Alge Crumpler has two receptions,
26 yards and no TDs in his past two starts.
Texans at Bears Kickoff: 1 p.m., Soldier
Field, Chicago, Ill. Weather: Partly cloudy, high: 20,
low: 13.
Houston will lean on RB Domanick Davis both as a runner
and receiver out of the backfield, especially with LB
Brian Urlacher (hamstring, out) on the sidelines. QB David
Carr has been terrible in six road starts and his not
a recommended starter, but WR Andre Johnson remains a
nice third option in leagues with 12-plus teams. Bears
QB Chad Hutchinson should find moderate success against
a Texans defense that has surrendered 31 passing touchdowns,
but it's difficult to start him in the Fantasy postseason.
Houston is tied with the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed
(4) in the NFL, so RB Thomas Jones will continue to post
mediocre numbers and is no better than a flex option.
Weather is a factor in this game, and only player who
is a factor for the Bears is RB Thomas Jones. Chicago
is 32nd overall on offense ... Houston QB David Carr has
not had much protection the last four weeks, thus his
production has dipped. Still, WR Andre Johnson, who has
71 catches and five TDs on the year, is a threat ... RB
Domanick Davis has been playing very well. Davis is the
only player in the NFL this season with 40 rushing first
downs and 20 receiving.
Bills at Bengals Kickoff: 1 p.m., Paul
Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio. Weather: Snow showers,
high: 30, low: 9.
For Buffalo, RB Willis McGahee continues to be a strong
play ... WR Lee Evans leads AFC rookies with six TD receptions
... QB Drew Bledsoe is playing much better of late ...
For Cincinnati, QB Carson Palmer has nine TDs throws in
his last three games -- he's red hot, but you have to
check the injury report ... It's really tough to run on
Buffalo, so Bengals RB Rudi Johnson may have a good game,
but not a breakout game ... You have to pass on the Bills,
which is not easy, so WR Chad Johnson is the guy. T.J.
Houshmandzadeh has 26 receptions and three TDs in his
last three games. McGahee has 196 yards and two TDs in
his past two starts. ... Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh
has 22 receptions, 316 yards and one TD in the past two
weeks.
Jaguars at Packers
Kickoff: 4:15 p.m., Lambeau Field, Green Bay,
Wisc. Weather: AM snow showers, high: 13, low: 5. Jacksonville
will look to establish the run with RB Fred Taylor, which
will create play-action chances for QB Byron Leftwich
to dissect Green Bay's 27th-ranked pass defense. Veteran
WR Jimmy Smith will be his first option and should get
open against CB Al Harris downfield. Rookie WR Reggie
Williams will also receive some chances and is a decent
No. 4 in leagues with 12-plus teams. QB Brett Favre should
bounce back from two consecutive bad performances, but
RB Ahman Green could be limited against a Jaguars defense
that has surrendered just six rushing touchdowns. WRs
Javon Walker and Donald Driver should both be active,
as Favre attacks the Jacksonville defensive backfield
with the pass. Weather is a factor ... Jacksonville RB
Fred Taylor is playing well, but only has one TD ... You
can pass on Green Bay (27th in pass defense). The Packers
will try to take WR Jimmy Smith out of the game, so rookie
WR Reggie Williams, who is coming on, could make some
plays. Still, Smith is too good not to play ... For Green
Bay, it will be hard for RB Ahman Green to have a great
game against Jacksonville ... QB Brett Favre and WR Javon
Walker should play well. One hindrance for the Packers
is that they are down to their third-string center, rookie
Scott Wells, who has good potential but is still developing.
Vikings at Lions Kickoff: 1 p.m.,
Ford Field, Detroit, Mich. Weather: Dome.
Vikings TE Jermaine Wiggins has seven receptions and 106
yards in the past two weeks. ... Jones has a league-best
352 rushing yards and two TDs in the past two weeks. Neither
team is very good on defense, but Detroit plays better
defense at home ... Minnesota QB Daunte Culpepper should
do very well, and WR Randy Moss may finally be recovered
enough from his hamstring injury to make some big plays
... Culpepper has 30 TDs and 10 INTs this season, which
are pretty impressive numbers ... One thing hurting Minnesota
is that starting RT Mike Rosenthal has been missed ...
RB Onterrio Smith has a burst and he could do well ...
For Detroit, I like QB Joey Harrington in this game. Even
though he passed for only 44 yards in windy Green Bay
last week, I think he'll bounce back here... I like WR
Roy Williams and RB Kevin Jones as well. Harrington is
not a recommended STUD though, but he should have at least
moderate success against a Minnesota defense that will
be without CB Antoine Winfield (ankle, out). His absence
also makes WR Roy Williams more attractive in leagues
with 12-plus teams. RB Kevin Jones will continue to be
the centerpiece of the offense and should post incredible
numbers vs. a Vikings defense that allows 128.8 rushing
yards per game.
Chargers at Browns Kickoff: 1 p.m., Cleveland Browns Stadium,
Cleveland, Ohio. Weather: Heavy snow/wind, high: 32, low:
16.
Weather is expected to become a real factor, as snow and
wind move into the area. That scenario creates a greater
emphasis on the run for both teams, and guarantees 25-30
carries for RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who should dominate
Cleveland's weak front seven. QB Drew Brees will still
throw to create a balanced attack, and his first option
will continue to be TE Antonio Gates, Gates has four receptions,
48 yards and no TDs in his past two starts. though WR
Eric Parker will also be in the mix with Keenan McCardell
(hamstring, questionable) on the sidelines. There are
few attractive options for the Browns, who will start
rookie QB Luke McCown. RB Lee Suggs (toe, questionable)
would be a decent flex option, but his status for the
contest is uncertain. I don't see how you can like anyone
on Cleveland. … Browns WR Antonio Bryant has 152
yards and two TDs in his past two starts. Meanwhile, it's
a meaningful game for San Diego in their playoff run.
I like RB LaDainian Tomlinson in a game that could be
affected by weather ... I like QB Drew Brees to an extent
... teams have double-covered TE Antonio Gates, so his
days of putting up consistently big numbers might be over.
Seahawks at Jets Kickoff: 1 p.m., Giants Stadium, East
Rutherford, N.J. Weather: Cloudy, high: 49, low: 25.
Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck could have a difficult time
against a Jets defense that ranks 8th vs. the pass, so
owners might want to consider another alternative. Mike
Holmgren will have to lean on RB Shaun Alexander, who
should receive 25-30 carries and remains a must-start.
WR Darrell Jackson has been hot in recent weeks, but he
could experience a decrease in production against CB Donnie
Abraham. New York will attack the Seattle front seven
with RB Curtis Martin, who should thrive vs. a unit that
will be without DT Grant Wistrom (knee, out). QB Chad
Pennington should be able to utilize the play-action pass,
but neither he nor WR Santana Moss has been consistent
enough to start with confidence. The key to this game
is that Seattle needs to block the Jets' impressive front
four. One reason the Seattle offense has not been playing
as well lately is OT Chris Terry's absence from the lineup.
But you have to like RB Shaun Alexander and WR Darrell
Jackson ... Again, QB Matt Hasselbeck is not a great road
player ... I think Jets RB Curtis Martin has a big day
here ... You can pass on Seattle, but I'm not sure how
effective QB Chad Pennington can be -- it doesn't seem
that his arm strength is 100 percent coming back from
injury. Jackson has 19 receptions, 248 yards and one TD
in the past two weeks. ... Pennington has six TD passes
and two INTs in his past four starts at Giants Stadium.
Cowboys at Eagles Kickoff: 1 p.m., Lincoln
Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pa. Weather: PM showers,
high: 45, low: 22.
QB Vinny Testaverde won't have much success vs. a Philadelphia
front seven that will blitz on a constant basis, but he
should still find TE Jason Witten on a regular basis.
WR Keyshawn Johnson, who has a sore knee, will post a
mediocre stat line against CB Sheldon Brown. Eagles QB
Donovan McNabb is a must-start vs. a weak Dallas pass
defense, as is WR Terrell Owens (back, questionable).
Dallas could be without LB Al Singleton (groin, questionable),
so RB Brian Westbrook should thrive as a receiver in the
middle of the field. Philadelphia has allowed just 119
points in 13 games. Statistically they are not that good,
but they keep teams out of the end zone. I do think Dallas
RB Julius Jones can have a good game here ... QB Donovan
McNabb has been on fire and should rebound from a less-than-stellar
game last week ... RB Brian Westbrook might not get that
many yards running, but he should continue to be very
productive as receiver -- he leads NFL backs in receptions.
Plus, Dallas is without LB Al Singleton, who is their
best LB at covering backs out of the backfield.
Rams at Cardinals Kickoff: 4:05 p.m., Sun Devil Stadium,
Tempe, Ariz. Weather: Sunny, high: 74, low: 45.
St. Louis, as we've noted before, is not very good on
grass ... The Rams will start QB Chris Chandler for the
second consecutive week in the absence of Marc Bulger
(shoulder, questionable), and will continue to lean on
WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. RB Marshall Faulk will
start for coach Mike Martz, but Steven Jackson (knee,
questionable) could see the glut of the work and is a
nice flex option. Cardinals QB Josh McCown will receive
support from RB Emmitt Smith, who is also a decent flex
option against a St. Louis defense that ranks 27th vs.
the run. When McCown has time in the pocket, he'll look
for WR Anquan Boldin against CB Jerametrius Butler. WR
Larry Fitzgerald will also be in the mix and is a nice
No. 3 Chris Chandler will start again after throwing six
INTs last week. He'll rely heavily on his veteran WRs,
so Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce can be factors ... After
the Cards allowed Maurice Hicks to have a big game last
week, RB Steven Jackson could be in line for a big game
... Cards QB Josh McCown posted big numbers last week,
as did WR Anquan Boldin.
Saints at Buccaneers Kickoff: 4:05 p.m., Raymond James
Stadium, Tampa, Fla. Weather: PM showers, high: 65, low:
43.
It's very hard to pass against the Bucs, who are tops
in pass defense, but WR Donte' Stallworth is finally coming
on. WR Joe Horn has posted 100-plus yards in three of
his past five starts vs. Tampa Bay and should be active.
New Orleans must lean on RB Deuce McAllister for 20-25
carries in order to have a chance, so expect the veteran
to produce a nice stat line. You have to take a chance
on QB Aaron Brooks. And you can run on Tampa Bay, so RB
Deuce McAllister is worth playing ... For the Bucs, I
like RB Michael Pittman. FB Mike Alstott is getting a
few more carries, but Pittman is catching plenty of passes
... Given New Orleans' shaky defense, you have to like
most offensive players for the Bucs. Rookie WR Michael
Clayton caught nine passes for 145 yards last week. Overall,
the Bucs had 436 yards last week against San Diego, so
QB Brian Griese can do some damage here. He is a very
solid starter in leagues with 12-plus teams vs. the Saints
31st-ranked pass defense. WR Michael Clayton and RB Michael
Pittman, who should explode vs. the league's worst run
defense, should also be active. WR Joey Galloway, who
has three touchdowns in the past two weeks, warrants consideration
as a No. 3.
Broncos at Chiefs Kickoff: 1 p.m., Arrowhead
Stadium, Kansas City, Mo. Weather: Mostly sunny, high:
30, low: 23.
The Venue....Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City - Quentin
Griffin had huge game in season opener against Kansas
City, but if rookie RB Tatum Bell plays, I like him in
this game. If Bell is out, RB Reuben Droughns is the guy,
but he might have hit the wall ... The Broncos will look
to establish the run with Droughns most likely , who I
think is the better option this week. Broncos QB Jake
Plummer should find WRs Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie downfield
against a Kansas City defense that ranks 32nd vs. the
pass, so all three are viable starters. I like QB Jake
Plummer, because if the Titans' Billy Volek can throw
for 400 yards, then Plummer should be able to make something
happen ... You have to also like WR Rod Smith for Denver
... For Kansas City, I like QB Trent Green, who is playing
very well right now. Eddie Kennison is probably the WR
who will get the most action, watch Morton's injury status.
Denver will try to take TE Tony Gonzalez out of the game
... RB Larry Johnson seems to be on fire -- I wouldn't
be surprised to see him start and carry a bigger load
this week. Johnson has rushed for 222 yards and two TDs
in the past two weeks. ... Chiefs WR Eddie Kennison has
10 receptions, 216 yards and three TDs in his past two
starts.
Titans at Raiders Kickoff: 4:15 p.m., Network Associates
Coliseum, Oakland, Calif. Weather: Mostly sunny, high:
63, low: 46.
Neither of these teams is very good on defense ... Tennessee
QB Billy Volek has thrown 11 TDs in his last four starts
... WR Drew Bennett, who is coming off a 233-yard game
against the Chiefs, should continue to play well ... Titans
QB Billy Volek has thrown for 695 yards and seven touchdowns
in his past two starts, and is a solid starter vs. a vulnerable
Oakland defense. His first option in the pass has been
Bennett, who should have another solid performance. RB
Chris Brown (toe, questionable) is not expected to be
active, It will be hard for Brown to come back on a short
week with his turf toe, so I think RB Antowain Smith has
a chance to be productive here ... The Raiders don't have
much in the way of a running game, so I would think QB
Kerry Collins will be busy throwing to WR Jerry Porter.
Collins will look to pick apart what has become a patchwork
defensive backfield in Tennessee. With CB Samari Rolle
(knee, out) on the sidelines, Titans WR Derrick Mason
is questionable with an injured ankle. ... Collins has
seven TDs in his past three starts.
Ravens at Colts Kickoff: 8:30 p.m., RCA
Dome, Indianapolis, Ind. Weather: Dome.
I think you'll see the Ravens try very hard to run the
ball -- so check the injury status on RB Jamal Lewis.
The Ravens need to run the ball -- not only to keep the
ball away from QB Peyton Manning, but also to negate DEs
Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, who have 24 sacks between
them ... Baltimore TE Todd Heap came back with two TDs
last week and will be a factor here ... Manning is, of
course, an automatic. The question is, which WR will Ravens
CB Chris McAlister be covering? If it's Marvin Harrison,
then Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokely will be big factors.
QB Kyle Boller should find success against an Indianapolis
defense that ranks 28th vs. the pass, and will look to
TE Todd Heap often when allowed time in the pocket. Baltimore
does rank 8th vs. the run, but RB Edgerrin James should
still post a decent stat line. WR Reggie Wayne and TE
Dallas Clark could see more chances with Brandon Stokley
(groin, questionable) at less than 100 percent, so both
are nice options. Boller had a career-best 112.3 passer
rating with 219 yards and four TDs last week. ... Wayne
has 13 receptions, 192 yards and two TDs in the past two
weeks.
Matchup of
The Week goes to Payton Manning - Some owners
might consider a contest against the Ravens defense unfavorable,
which is the reason Manning is going to be picked apart
right here. Baltimore does field one of the better defenses
in the NFL, but it's not a statistical death sentence
for the opposition. Carson Palmer proved that on Dec.
5, when he shredded the unit for 382 yards and three touchdowns
in a 27-26 Cincinnati win. Manning should find similar
success on Sunday night, as he looks to break Dan Marino's
record for passing touchdowns in a single season. He would
love to achieve this feat on national television versus
a defense with superstars like LB Ray Lewis and SS Ed
Reed, which would give the record even more luster. Manning
is the reason countless owners have reached and are still
alive the Fantasy postseason, and he's a favorable starter
vs. all opponents -- even one as formidable as the Ravens.
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