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Tuesday
September 21, 2004 Page updated at 5:40pm
By:
David
Bachman
Fantasy
Football Editor For WagerOnFootball.com
Week 1 .
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14 .15 .
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17
Anyone can see the value in drafting Priest Holmes,
but it takes a discerning eye
to distinguish the unheralded or unused players primed
for breakout seasons. On the eve of the 2004 Season
here are some lesser known names that we think you'll
want stashed on your bench. Keep an eye on these guys.
They turn fantasy teams into fantasy champions. Thanks
Paul Tagliabue, for starting week one on a Thursday
in Foxboro with the Indy triplets in town. Thanks Marshall
Faulk, for playing the Cardinals on the opening Sunday.
Thanks for the Cowboys D vs. Daunte Culpepper. Football’s
back. Exhale. Let’s quit with the foreplay.
This is our waiver wire pick-ups column. The WagerOnFootball.com
staff will scour the free agent pools in fantasy land
for the best available talent every week. Availability,
of course, depends on the league. We’re using
12 team, 15 roster spot leagues as the median, but we’ll
look for roster candidates for leagues of all shapes
and sizes.
Who's Hot? Who's Not? IN this edition of
Wager On Football's Waiver Wire.
A fantasy football owner is missing. Less than an hour
after his office fantasy football draft on Friday, September
10th, Tomas Erickson of Nawlins, Louisiana disappeared.
The last record of Erickson is a mass e-mail to his
co-workers titled “Y’all can start engraving
my name on the trophy.” In the e-mail, Erickson
was proud to include the highlights of his unstoppable
team, the “Jug or Nots.”
RB Deuce McAllister
RB Stephen Davis
RB Julius Jones
TE Todd Heap
TE Kellen Winslow
QB Tommy Maddox
WR Charles Rogers
WR Steve Smith
WR Joey Galloway
Okay, the team is a little light at quarterback and
heavy at tight end. And sure, this entire set-up is
a complete lie to prove a point. But in case you missed
it, a lot of sweet fantasy football talent
have already been injured this season. And plenty of
owners are looking for answers or are in hiding. Whether
there is a Mr. Erickson double-fisting hand grenades
on Bourbon Street right now or not is irrelevant. It’s
possible that a roster like this exists out there.
This column is not for the owner of that roster. It’s
over man, give up. Start prepping for basketball or
something. For everyone else that suddenly has a roster
spot or three to fill this week, let’s soldier
on.
Running Back injuries to watch
Our “all-injury” team didn’t
even include Priest Holmes and Edgerrin James, who both
appear questionable at best to play this week. James
is well-known for his toughness and fast-healing skills,
but he’s doubtful to suit up only one week after
a “second-degree hamstring tear.”
Holmes is notoriously difficult to
read, even for his coaches, when it comes to injuries.
He told Dick Vermeil he was ready to come back into
the fourth quarter of the Chiefs game on Sunday despite
his ankle injury. But Holmes had his helmet off and
coach Vermeil guessed correctly that something wasn’t
right.
Remember, Holmes is a guy who played all of last season
in an enormous amount of pain from his surgically repaired
hip without saying a word. As of Tuesday afternoon,
we’d guess Holmes and James are slightly less
than 50% likely to play this weekend. Follow their injury
updates all week on our news pages.
The availability of Holmes and James directly affects
our …
Top Pick-Ups – Running Back
Dominic Rhodes will start at running
back for the Colts if Edge is unable to go. Never a
running back we’d call durable, Rhodes still has
enough skill to start in most fantasy leagues this weekend.
He looked excellent versus the Patriots in week one
and was active last week in the Colts third-down and
goal-line packages, despite not getting a carry.
Rhodes is especially attractive this week on turf versus
the Packers. Green Bay’s rush defense sorely missed
Grady Jackson in the middle versus Chicago on Sunday.
It’s possible that James will return, but Rhodes
is worth owning in most leagues as a reserve anyhow.
Justin Fargas may be available in some
leagues after seven carries the first week and a toe
injury in week two. But the Tyrone Wheatley experiment
is off to a bad start in Oakland and it may only be
a matter of time before Fargas gets a crack at the job.
This is a long-term pickup, but Fargas’ upside
is worth the gamble in most leagues if you just lost
Julius Jones or own Tony Hollings.
Derrick Blaylock quietly passed Larry Johnson on the
Kansas City depth chart over the last few weeks because
of his skills in the passing game. If Priest Holmes
is out for one game or more, Blaylock has a truckload
of value. We’re not giving up on the Kansas City
offense yet and they are primed to explode against a
shaky Houston defense this weekend. Since Blaylock is
available in our 14 by 18 NFFC league, we know he’s
available in nearly all leagues.
T.J. Duckett should not have been dropped in any league
format. But if he was after his two-carry performance
in week one, grab him. Counting on Warrick Dunn to stay
healthy for 16 weeks isn’t a great idea. The Falcons
are currently waiting for the MRI results on Dunn’s
injured foot.
Running Backs to Consider
Aaron Stecker and Ki-Jana Carter will
split carries while Deuce McAllister is sidelined for
at least the next month. Stecker doesn’t have
the body or durability to take more than 10-12 carries
a game. He’s just a guy, and will be used primarily
in the passing game and third downs. He’s also
a big injury risk.
If we had to choose one Saint, we’d actually pick
up Carter. His running style and body type are far closer
to Deuce McAllister. He played very well in the preseason
to win a job over Lamar Smith and is certain to be the
Saints goal-line back over the next month. Remember,
though, this is Ki-Jana Carter we’re talking about.
The Saints will evolve into a passing team and likely
won’t ask for more than 10-15 carries a game from
Carter. That’s worth a fantasy roster spot in
the short-term in most leagues.
Jamal Robertson, not Terry Jackson, took over for Kevan
Barlow when Barlow left last week’s game with
bruised ribs. Robertson acquitted himself nicely until
coughing up a huge fumble that ultimately cost the 49ers
the game. While Barlow will play this week, he’s
been dinged two straight weeks. His owners may want
to grab Robertson in deep leagues as insurance.
Larry Johnson reportedly had a standout
training camp and looked fine in the preseason…
so wha happened? We don’t know, but we guess his
struggles in the passing game and general lack of explosiveness
have put him on the bench. That said, if Priest Holmes’
injury lingers, Johnson could ultimately earn carries.
Big if. Johnson is only worth gambling on in deep leagues.
Eddie George carried the ball 18 times
last week, gaining 62 yards and scoring a touchdown.
His owners have to feel vindicated for hanging on to
Eddie, especially after Julius Jones’ injury.
Coach Bill Parcells, however, clearly is not a huge
Eddie fan. He said Jones’ carries will go ReShard
Lee and Richie Anderson. He wants George in the 15-18
carries range at most. If that happens, George is still
worth a spot on fantasy rosters.
Chester Taylor is absolutely worth
grabbing for teams that can afford to leave him on the
bench for the next five weeks. He’s emerged as
the clear favorite for carries if Jamal Lewis misses
mid-season games because of his trial. Taylor is averaging
7.5 yards a carry and has more rushing yards than Eddie
George this season.
ReShard Lee and Richie Anderson are unlikely to provide
consistent fantasy value. But no one can really predict
how coach Parcells will divvy up carries so they both
are worth a shot in deep leagues. Anderson especially
has value in points-per-reception leagues.
LaBrandon Toefield has been on the
field an awful lot for the Jaguars on passing downs.
After two poor games, idle speculation in Jacksonville
wonders if Fred Taylor’s foot injury will be a
long-term concern. If so, Toefield is worth grabbing
for Taylor owners.
Running Backs to Consider Dropping
Terry Jackson has been on the field
plenty for San Francisco on third downs and will continue
to do so. He may also get goal-line opportunities if
Kevan Barlow keeps getting caught from behind on long
runs. (We’ve seen that happen twice.) But if you
are a Kevan Barlow owner that picked him up for insurance,
we’d trade Jackson for Jamal Robertson.
Moe Williams is worth a roster spot
in nearly all leagues if he’s healthy. But he’s
not. With Onterrio Smith’s suspension delayed
until Michael Bennett is healthy, Williams’ upside
is limited.
We’ve touted Tony Hollings plenty, but backup
running backs aren’t worth much on the shelf.
We’d hang on in deeper leagues, but 12 by 15 leaguers
can probably get someone better. In brighter news for
Hollings, Domanick Davis has lost four fumbles in two
weeks.
Jerome Bettis may vulture three touchdowns in a game
again, but we doubt it. He’s getting far less
playing time than Verron Haynes.
Antowain Smith may have squashed any chance for fantasy
value with two week one fumbles. He barely got on the
field in week two.
Running Backs to be patient with
Steven Jackson is a long-term roster
spot filler, so don’t get discouraged so easily.
There’s still a great chance he’ll play
a significant role this year.
William Green owners can’t be happy with his yardage
totals. But Green has had very tough match-ups and Lee
Suggs’ availability remains up in the air.
Top Pick-Ups, Tight End
Tight end is a fun, deep position this year with plenty
of decent options that should be available. So Kellen
Winslow and Todd Heap owners, fear not.
Let’s do the obvious ones first:
Daniel Graham and Jason Witten are major fantasy factors
that are crucial parts of their team’s offense.
They should be owned in all 12-team leagues, but we
know they are not.
Eric Johnson was the hot pick-up last week, but is probably
still out there in half of 12-team leagues. After watching
the 49ers again, it’s clear he’ll be a big
part of their offense. He’s an excellent injury
fill-in or upgrade if you’re unhappy with tight
end production.
Dallas Clark has one catch in two weeks
and hurt his foot last week. So we’re concerned.
But if an owner in your league drops Clark this early,
pick him up. He’s a rare tight end: a deep threat
on an explosive passing team.
L.J. Smith has become the favorite
target of the Eagles passing game in the red zone. Problem
is, anyone watching Monday Night Football knows that,
so you’re likely to be competing for his services…
if he’s available.
Doug Jolley was considered a top ten fantasy prospect
at tight end after totaling 409 yards in eleven games
in his rookie season. Oakland’s lost 2003 season
has hurt his fantasy stock, but he’s regained
his starting role. Norv Turner often makes heavy use
of pass-catching tight ends, so Jolley has plenty of
upside.
Tight Ends to consider
Most of the below aren’t exciting, but they could
score a TD or two if you’re lucky.
Dallas Clark’s teammate, Marcus
Pollard, is on the downside of his excellent career.
But any offensive player on the Colts is bound to score
a handful of touchdowns.
Erron Kinney has improved his receiving
skills every year in Tennessee and should get plenty
of red zone looks from Steve McNair.
Richard Owens looked halfway decent in relief for the
Vikings on Monday night. They like to get their tight
ends involved, so Owens could have short-term value
with Jim Kleinsasser and Jermaine Wiggins out of the
lineup.
Jeb Putzier hasn’t produced yet, but coach Mike
Shanahan released Byron Chamberlain and Jed Weaver to
give him more playing time. In a system that produced
huge numbers for Shannon Sharpe, Putzier has solid upside
for a tight end.
Top Pick-ups - Wide Receiver
Forgive us if we repeat selections, but the same wideouts
may still be available this week.
Rookies Michael Clayton and Keary Colbert
were the hot pick-ups last week and looked solid in
week two. If they were passed up the first time around,
grab them now. Clayton first.
Reche Caldwell, yes Reche Caldwell, has gotten behind
defenses in consecutive weeks for long touchdown passes.
So far, he’s been a top ten wide receiver in most
scoring systems. While we’re skeptical he can
keep it up, someone has to catch the ball in San Diego.
If you own Eric Parker, it’s not too early to
trade-in for his teammate.
Tim Brown is far from explosive, but
he has 11 receptions in two weeks despite a comatose
Tampa Bay passing attack. He has value in points-per-reception
leagues and is likely to provide steady, if unspectacular
performance.
Tyrone Calico will likely return in
week three and should be owned in all leagues. With
Drew Bennett struggling to hang on to passes, Calico
could have a chance at the starting lineup this season.
Nate Burleson was probably dropped in some leagues after
his quiet week one. But he was more active Monday night,
catching five passes for 67 yards. We just find it hard
to believe that the No. 2 wideout in Minnesota won’t
have fantasy value. After outplaying Marcus Robinson
in week two, Burleson should remain the starter for
a while.
Terry Glenn is ridiculously lame, but
she has eleven catches for 174 yards after two weeks.
With the Cowboys stuck being a predominantly passing
team, he’s worth owning for depth in most leagues.
Johnnie Morton is a receiver we’d
add for depth in deeper leagues. Morton has played very
well (8 catches, 106 yards) through the first two weeks
considering he didn’t practice once during training
camp. With Eddie Kennison likely out, Morton is currently
Kansas City’s best receiver. Opponents will dare
the Chiefs to beat them with their wideouts, so Morton
will have opportunities.
Wide Receivers to consider
Ernest Wilford is probably at the top
of free agent points lists because of his two touchdown
grabs. But the rookie out of Virginia Tech made plays
all preseason and has earned more playing time in Jacksonville.
Expect Wilford to climb to third receiver in week three.
If he passes fellow rookie Reggie Williams for a starting
job, he’s an interesting player.
We’d hold off on dipping your toes into the Doug
Gabriel/Ronald Curry pool in Oakland in 12-team leagues.
But it’s worth keeping an eye on to see which
deep threat emerges as Oakland’s “No. 2.”
With Cedrick Wilson coming back, we
don’t recommend picking up Curtis Conway this
week.
With Jabar Gaffney falling off the face of the Earth,
Corey Bradford could put up decent numbers. While the
Texans have lost, their yardage totals have been impressive.
Bradford could break enough long scores to be worth
owning in deep leagues.
Wide Receivers to Consider Dropping
Eric Parker might eventually explode
for a big game, but he’s never produced at the
pro level. Don’t worry if you’re feeling
impatient.
Marty Booker owners need to do some soul-searching after
watching the Sunday night game. The Miami offensive
line is quite possibly the worst unit we’ve ever
seen. Expect teams to blitz Miami into submission until
they prove they can stop it. That could make Booker
useless in the short term for 12-team leagues.
David Terrell owners weren’t happy about our dismissal
of him last week. Then he gained negative 15 yards in
week two. Expect a few big games, but not enough to
make him that exciting in 12-team leagues. Incidentally,
the Chicago Sun-Times runs a weekly “Terrell Watch”
to observe the crazy things he does on Sundays. That
rated his week two performance as positive because he
didn’t do anything destructive to the team. Except
losing 15 yards.
The buzz on rookie Darius Watts sure has died down.
With Ashley Lelie playing well, Watts’ chances
to start anytime soon is very slim. That makes him a
questionable fantasy player in nearly all leagues.
Either Josh Reed or Lee Evans are bound to have value
at some point this season. But it’s not worth
waiting for them in 12-team leagues.
Did we mention Dennis Northcutt and Quincy Morgan last
week? We should have. We think Northcutt is worth holding
on to in deep leagues, but neither player looks likely
to provide short-term value.
Reggie Williams was drafted in the
top ten, but that’s the only thing keeping him
on any re-draft rosters. Counting the preseason, we’ve
watched five Jags games so far. Williams hasn’t
done anything positive except blocking in any of them.
We’re not sure what exactly has happened to Kelley
Washington in Cincy. But when you’re passed by
T.J. Houshmandzadeh on the depth chart, it’s time
to bail.
Be patient with…
Brandon Lloyd is still getting plenty
of attention in the San Francisco offense. Production
needs to follow fast, but we’d hang on for at
least another week.
Jerry Porter and Peerless Price are
off to slow starts, but they should not be a consideration
to be dropped, even in 10-team leagues.
Top Pickups – Quarterbacks
Rich Gannon should be owned in all
12-team leagues. Despite preseason protests, he’s
looked like a fine fit for the new Oakland offense.
The weak running game will also make the Raiders a pass-first
team.
Vinny Testaverde has been a top ten
fantasy QB through two weeks. Even if he doesn’t
keep it up, he’s a big improvement over many backups
still on some fantasy rosters. With Julius Jones out
for two months, Dallas is stuck being a pass-first team.
Quarterbacks to consider
In deep leagues or dynasty leagues, we ‘re long-term
fans of Ken Dorsey. He showed a lot of poise, competitiveness,
and smart-decision making for his first NFL start. He
doesn’t have the tools around him to be a major
fantasy factor this season, but his numbers may surprise
in a weak defensive division. This week’s game
at Seattle will be a great test.
Ben Roethlisberger, who left school
after his junior season at Miami of Ohio, may not be
ready for the NFL. But with a solid offensive line,
a decent running game, and good wide receivers, he has
more tools than most rookies to succeed. Don’t
expect numbers worthy of a QB2 spot in re-draft leagues
right away. But Roethlisberger’s ability to create
out of the pocket will make him a factor before long.
Deep keeper leagues want to grab Chris Simms before
his stock gets too high. Jon Gruden will find a way
to make that passing game work, even if it’s not
in the next few weeks. Simms didn’t blow anyone
away with his first game as a pro, but he’s undeniably
the future in Tampa Bay.
Week 1 .
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