Tuesday
December 21st, 2004 Page updated at 1:40pm FantasyFootball Grab Bag For
Week 16 By:David
Bachman Fantasy
Football Editor For WagerOnFootball.com
And then it came crashing down.
The city of Philadelphia shuddered at 4:08 EST when
the news broke Monday that Owens needed surgery.
The dream season and the Superbowl to come were
yanked out from under the long suffering Philadelphia
faithful. This is a cruel game sometimes.
Worse yet, in the big picture the Superbowl will
actually occur in the AFC Championship game. Once
again we are denied. I guess that's why they invented
alcohol at Superbowl parties.
Since we are wallowing in misery let's talk about
a subject fresh on the minds of so many as we get
into Fantasy Championship week. I am talking of
the dreaded Stud Dud syndrome. You know, the guy
you drafted who kicked ash for you all year to get
you to the playoffs, then tanks when it matters
the most. Peyton Manning almost single handedly
took many owners to the playoffs. Then owners faced
with a tough week 15 match-up with the dreaded Ravens
defense. What do you do? The old golden rule which
I generally agree with is ALWAYS start your studs.
If you started Manning last Sunday, and your opponent
started his fresh waiver wire wonder Billy Volek
chances are you are feeling extreme hatred for the
Oakland defense, Peyton Manning, Tony Dungy, Drew
Bennett, Volek himself, me and the boys at WageronFootball.com,
the always start your studs theory, and your life
in general.
I understand how you feel. I have been victim of
this syndrome countless times. I am rarely out of
the top 3 in points in any of my leagues, yet I
am usually blasted out before the Championship game.
Something must be going wrong along the way. I feel
your pain.
Avoiding the minefield of Stud Duds is a tricky
business. And it doesn't matter what you do, or
who you listen to. The Stud Dud can happen at any
time to any player. Chad Johnson, who had put together
as solid a run of fantasy points as any receiver
over the last 6 weeks took a huge dive against Buffalo.
He looked rock solid, even against the tough defenses
the Bengals had faced recently. No reason to bench
him. Right? Chad Johnson: 10 yards receiving. Chad
Johnson owners: Drinking heavily.
Reuben Droughns no doubt helped many a fantasy
player patch a hole at running back to lift them
to a playoff spot. But in the end the dreaded RBBC
reared its ugly head when it mattered most. Against
that tantalizing Kansas City defense no less. Now
the Rat says it's Bell in week 16. Reuben, thanks
for coming. Ouch.
Waiver Wire Wonders
Eli Manning, QB, Giants
(16-23, 182 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; 2 carries, 18 yards):
It was a matter of time before the younger Manning
had a solid game, but it was surprising that it
came against the Steelers. And even then, Big Blue
lost. But there's at least some hope. And if you're
in a huge bind, he does two good matchups to finish
the year (Cincinnati and Dallas).
Samie Parker, WR, Chiefs (3 catches, 84 yards,
1 TD): While Dante Hall got the start for the injured
Johnnie Morton, it was the rookie Parker who pulled
in some big catches for Kansas City. He's not highly
recommended in these key end-of-season games, but
he might have some upside for next season.
Jerald Sowell, RB, Jets (5 catches, 83 yards):
The Jets use the fullback a lot as a safety valve,
so some games, he'll have big numbers.
Ben Troupe, TE, Titans (6 catches, 75 yards, 1
TD): The rookie out of Florida could be a nice fill-in
if Erron Kinney is hurt. Tennessee likes throwing
to the tight ends, but it's taken this long for
Troupe to make some noise.
Injuries
Key late inactives: Duce Staley, Plaxico Burress,
Johnnie Morton, Derrick Blaylock, Keenan McCardell,
Chris Brown.
Terrell Owens sprained his ankle in the second
half against the Cowboys, which is one reason for
his two-catch performance. This could be bad news
for fantasy owners in crunch time. Todd Pinkston
was also hurting during the game, leaving Freddie
Mitchell and Greg Lewis as the top wideouts. That
could mean more passes for Brian Westbrook, L.J.
Smith and Chad Lewis.
Willis McGahee injured his knee late in the first
half against the Bengals. He did return in the second
briefly before missing the fourth quarter. Shaud
Williams took his place in the backfield and had
40 total yards.
Matt Hasselbeck left the game in the fourth quarter
after injuring his shoulder. Trent Dilfer stepped
in for him.
The Lions' Roy Williams injured his hip in the
first half but returned and still had a huge game.
Both Byron Leftwich and Brett Favre suffered wrist
injuries in their matchup on Sunday, but both played
the whole game.
Robert Ferguson suffered a scary neck injury after
he was clotheslined by Donovin Darius following
a catch in the fourth quarter.
Fantasy Game of the Week
Raiders 40, Titans 35: After seeing what Tennessee
did on both sides of the ball Monday night, it's
probably not a surprise that we'd see a repeat performance,
especially with neither team sporting a running
game and playing with little on the line.
News, Notes and Other Observations
Julius Peppers tried to match Warren Sapp in catching
a goal-line TD but missed the score when he caught
the ball out of bounds. However, it was most impressive
that Peppers was lined up as a wideout and ran a
fade pattern into the end zone. But he made up for
it with a great catch and run for a TD off a Michael
Vick fumble. He also made a nice block on Nick Goings'
TD run.
Antonio Gates had just one catch, but it was a
72-yard TD that tied the mark for most touchdown
catches by a tight end. That play saved some owners
who started Drew Brees, who threw just six passes
(completing four), but had 85 yards and that score.
With snowy weather in Cleveland, the Chargers weren't
taking chances.
Domanick Davis has now scored TDs in seven consecutive
games. Not bad for a guy who was looking like a
bust in the middle of the year.
Chris Chandler's reign as the Rams' starter was
short-lived. He went 1-of-6 for 1 yard and a pick
before being replaced by Jamie Martin. Marc Bulger
should be back next week, though.
Lee Suggs returned to the Browns and rushed for
105 yards against a good Chargers defense, although
a lot of it was in garbage time.
Tatum Bell did play despite a shoulder injury and
put up 108 total yards, probably cementing his place
as Denver's running back of the future. Reuben Droughns'
value takes a hit, and don't even worry about Garrison
Hearst, who scored a TD in garbage time.
Chad Pennington recovered nicely from his three-interception
game last week to put up his best game of an up-and-down
season. It was also the first big game for the Lions'
Joey Harrington -- there may be hope for him after
all.
It was a nice day for a number of first-round wideouts:
Larry Fitzgerald scored twice, Roy Williams broke
100 yards and had a score, the same with Lee Evans,
who has now scored in four straight games.
Michael Bennett may have some fantasy value again
after gaining 102 total yards (51 rushing, 51 receiving).
Onterrio Smith's value takes a tumble for the time
being. But it's hard to recommend any Vikings running
back right now.
Fred Taylor did score this week, but has just three
touchdowns this season, despite decent yardage numbers.
I'm sure some fantasy owners were mad that the Jags
used Greg Jones to get a goal-line score after Taylor
failed to do so the play before.
Peyton Manning failed to throw for at least two
TDs for the first time this season. But he still
has 47 for the season and can break the record against
San Diego next week.
Other guys to Pick up on This week's Wire.
Shaud Williams, Bills
Last Week’s Stats
14 car.
30 yds.
1 rec.
10 yds.
0 TDs
Breakout Performer
Leading up to Sunday’s game, Willis McGahee
had been one of the hottest RBs in fantasy football.
But McGahee hyperextended his knee and may miss
Sunday’s game in San Francisco. If he’s
sidelined, Shaud Williams is expected to get the
start. Former starter Travis Henry will begin some
light running this week, but probably won’t
be ready to go. He’s missed significant time
with a leg injury. If you’ve been relying
on McGahee, Williams gives you an option. He figures
to be the Bills primary ball carrier and earned
a goal-line carry two weeks ago during garbage time.
Koren Robinson, Seahawks
Last Week’s Stats
SUSP.
SUSP.
SUSP.
SUSP.
SUSP.
Breakout Performer
Koren Robinson has missed the last four weeks due
to a suspension for a substance-abuse violation.
He will return to action this week, just in time
to help the Seahawks salvage an up-and-down season.
If you’re one of the unlucky owners who lost
Terrell Owens to injury this week, Robinson might
be your best free agent possibility. Acquire him
if available.
Antwaan Randle El, Steelers
Last Week’s Stats
5 rec.
149 yds.
1 TD
Breakout Performer
?
Randle El was recommended here a couple weeks ago
after Plaxico Burress got hurt. Although he didn’t
produce immediately, Randle El put together a fine
performance on Saturday. Burress is expected to
miss the remainder of the regular season, so Randle
El will have some value for the duration of your
fantasy playoffs. The Steelers have a tough match-up
this week against the Ravens, but Randle El could
be better than some of the other wideouts available
on your waiver wire.
Todd Pinkston, Eagles
Last Week’s Stats
2 rec.
34 yds.
0 TDs
Breakout Performer
Pinkston has been the target of much criticism in
the past two weeks because he gave up on a couple
plays when he was afraid to take a big hit. With
all the bad publicity, he’ll be playing with
a chip on his shoulder and should be focused on
doing well. The injury to Terrell Owens puts additional
pressure on Pinkston to overcome his case of alligator
arms. Look for him to finish with at least 70 yards
against a weak Rams defense. As an alternative if
Pinkston is already on a roster, consider Greg Lewis
who has impressed the coaching staff in limited
duty.
1. Miami Dolphins
Last Week’s Stats
28 PA
3 INTs
0 FR
1 sack
0 pts.
Breakout Performer
The 2004 season can’t end soon enough for
the Dolphins, but before it’s over, you might
be able to squeeze a solid defensive performance
out of them. Miami will face a beleaguered Cleveland
Browns team next week. The Browns were shut out
by the Chargers in Week 15 and only scored seven
in Week 14. In those games, QB Luke McCown threw
three interceptions and was sacked eight times.
The Dolphins put up a fight Monday night against
the Patriots and their ball-hawking secondary should
be good for at least two interceptions against the
Browns.
I've Rambled On Long Enough So
Here We go
Weather
can wreak havoc
Hope you checked the weather
report out in Cleveland before you played Drew Brees.
I almost always recommend starting running backs
and sitting quarterbacks when I see snow, rain and/or
high winds in a game forecast. As a result, it wasn't
a great idea to play Brees, David Carr, Byron Leftwich,
Brett Favre, etc. Obviously many of you don't have
so many choices. Brees threw six passes. That's
in the entire game. Brees owners are lucky to have
gotten that 72-yard touchdown pass to Antonio Gates
or it would have been a complete washout.
Kick me: Not a good day if you had the kickers
who missed extra points. In one of my leagues, a
missed extra point costs you 10 points. Ouch. David
Akers had his extra point blocked easily, and Jason
Hanson never even got to kick the ball in the final
seconds of that improbable loss to Minnesota. Don't
laugh, we all lose games by one point somewhere
along the line. Hope you're not an Akers owner who
suffered a one-point defeat. And there's really
nothing to draw on this trend, since one miss came
in cold but not unbearable Philly, the other in
a dome. Of course, the kickers in cold places (Phil
Dawson, Ryan Longwell) struggled a bit as well.
Daunte's inferno: The Vikings continue to be a
maddening team from a fantasy standpoint. All Daunte
Culpepper owners must play him, but after not showing
up for weeks, we saw Nate Burleson make a comeback
with 134 yards and two scores. (Still no sign of
Marcus Robinson.) When it comes to the ground game,
you shouldn't be counting on Onterrio Smith or Michael
Bennett anyway, and Mike Tice continues to prove
that by limiting their carries, even when one of
them runs well, as Bennett did Sunday. By the way,
with Philly's Owens likely out, Randy Moss might
be back as the top NFC WR.
Chad leaves us hanging: I still won't be playing
the Jets' Chad Pennington in the fantasy playoffs,
but we all have to admit he looked real good picking
apart a flawed Seahawks defense. Pennington and
Santana Moss forgot what each other looked like
for 14 weeks, but Sunday they got along great, hooking
up on two touchdowns. Is Pennington's shoulder hurting
him? Couldn't tell from this three-TD, 253-yard
effort. Or maybe we should call Seattle's defense
a panacea. As for Curtis Martin, it's no surprise
he ran all over the Seahawks. And LaMont Jordan
continues to show that even as a backup, on any
given day he can put up stats. Something to think
about if Jordan ever gets a chance to start.
No. 2 WRs in Buffalo-Cincy: OK, now Lee Evans has
caught five touchdown passes in four weeks. He's
basically scoring every week, easily outdistancing
the underwhelming production of Eric Moulds, the
supposed Buffalo No. 1 WR. Evans again topped 100
yards, and with the bad 49ers coming up Christmas
weekend, you have to expect the Bills to score a
lot. Meanwhile, Chad Johnson had managed until Sunday
to remain effective even while T.J. Houshmandzadeh
is breaking out. Johnson had a nothing day with
Jon Kitna at QB, but don't expect that to continue.
Call it a bad day.
