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Since 1967, the year of the
first "big game", there have been seven
touchdown-sized spreads, making it the most popular
line of all. (Five times the spread's been a field
goal.)
Of course, a 7-point line
is hardly a rarity when it comes to football betting.
In the NFL, seven is the second-most common margin
of victory after three. During the 2006 regular
season, 21 of the 256 games (8.2 percent) were
decided by John Elway's number.
What's interesting for bettors
to note, however, is how good Super Bowl 7-pointers
have been for the books, with underdogs covering
five and losing just one. (There was one push.)
Capitalizing on the public's
propensity to back favorites, bet-takers have
cleaned up when David ends up giving Goliath a
fight.
Betting Results of Super
Bowls With 7-point Spreads
| Super Bowl |
Winner |
Loser |
ATS |
| XXXIX |
New England (-7) 24 |
Philadelphia 21 |
Dog |
| XXXVIII |
New England (-7) 32 |
Carolina 29 |
Dog |
| XXXIV |
St. Louis (-7) 23 |
Tennessee 16 |
Push |
| XXVI |
Washington (-7) 37 |
Buffalo 24 |
Fav |
| XXV |
N.Y. Giants (+7) 20 |
Buffalo 19 |
Dog |
| XXIII |
San Francisco (-7) 20 |
Cincinnati 16 |
Dog |
| X |
Pittsburgh (-7) 21 |
Dallas 17 |
Dog |
With more squares than a
Picasso getting down on the Super Bowl versus
a regular-season game, it's not surprising then
that the Colts are being given plenty to overcome
(from a point-spread perspective, at least) for
their game on Feb. 4.
Looking back on previous
championship games with 7-point lines, there are,
indeed, parallels to be drawn with the 41st edition.
Most recently, in Super Bowl
XXXIX, it was the New England Patriots who were
getting all the attention. With the word "dynasty"
being bandied about in anticipation of Tom Brady
and Co.'s third title in four years, no one was
giving the Philadelphia Eagles much of a chance.
At the time, Brady was 8-0
in the playoffs, and even though Philadelphia's
Donovan McNabb had superior stats in the 2004
regular season, most bettors felt the quarterbacking
matchup favored New England. But it was McNabb
who led the Eagles to the cover with a 30-yard
TD pass to Greg Lewis with 1:48 remaining, making
the final score 24-21. On the day, McNabb threw
for 357 yards and three touchdowns. (No need to
mention the interceptions and hyperventilating.)
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Super Bowl Betting
History
According to the Nevada Gaming Control
Board, when the Patriots beat the
Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX, Nevada
sportsbooks won $15,430,138 on $90,759,236
in wagers. The win and win percentage
(17.0) remain records. |
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As was the case two years
ago, there is a clear quarterbacking favorite
when the Colts face the Bears. His name is Peyton
Manning, the man who's now beaten the aforementioned
Brady in three straight meetings. The question
is, does Manning deserve the respect once reserved
only for Brady?
While Manning's opposite
number, Chicago's Rex Grossman, had nowhere near
the numbers of the Indy quarterback in the regular
season, it's interesting to note that the Bears'
QB has better numbers in the postseason. Grossman
has thrown just one interception to Manning's
five. He also boasts a superior passer rating:
75.4 to 66.8. Both have thrown just two TD passes,
but Manning has played one more game.
Not that any coach in his
right mind would choose Grossman over Manning
to lead his team, but what is it, exactly, that
makes the former so worrying for bettors? The
answer is turnovers. Grossman threw 20 interceptions
in the regular season, third worst in the league
behind Ben Roethlisberger (23) and Jon Kitna (22).
As far as relevant precedents
are concerned, turnovers were the story of Super
Bowl XXVI, the only title game in which a 7-point
underdog failed to push or cover. In the 37-24
loss to Washington, Buffalo's Jim Kelly threw
four interceptions and lost a fumble.
Back to the present, the
problem with betting against Grossman because
of turnovers alone is that his teammates more
than make up for his mistakes. In the playoffs,
the Bears have taken the ball away three more
times than they've given it up. During the regular
season, they were plus-8 in turnover margin. The
Colts are plus-2 in the playoffs and were plus-7
in the regular season.
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Super Bowl Betting
Opinions
"I think one of the key factors
John Q. Public will look at is, how
can you take the Bears against Manning?
Grossman does not look like a quarterback
who can lead a team to a Super Bowl."
- Vegas Sports Authority handicapper
Jim Kruger, to the Las Vegas Review-Journal
(Jan. 22, 2007)
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To reiterate, sportsbooks
have been fortunate that just one 7-point Super
Bowl favorite has covered. But they've also been
lucky that only one 7-point underdog has won outright;
four of those underdogs covered the spread while
failing to win the game.
See, while history suggests
the majority of this year's Super Bowl wagers
will be placed on the Colts (-7), it also tells
us there will be healthy action on the Bears with
the moneyline. Fans of the underdog don't want
to see their team merely cover the spread; they
want a win, and they bet accordingly.
If the Bears beat the Colts,
the moneyline will pay in the neighborhood of
+190, which means it takes about half as much
Chicago action to inflict the same amount of damage
on a sportsbook as an Indy cover.
But doesn't the evidence
suggest that 7-point Super Bowl dogs have little
shot of winning? Not necessarily. The New York
Giants in 1991 might be the only 7-point underdog
to have won the Super Bowl, but plenty of others
had their chances.
In Super Bowl X, Pittsburgh
safety Glen Edwards put an end to a late Dallas
rally with an end-zone interception of Roger Staubach
as time expired. The Steelers won, 21-17.
In Super Bowl XXIII, it took
a 92-yard drive with 3:10 left on the clock for
Joe Montana and the San Francisco 49ers to beat
the Cincinnati Bengals, 20-16.
In Super Bowl XXXIV, Tennessee
Titans wide receiver Kevin Dyson fell one-yard
short of tying the game on the final play of the
game. The St. Louis Rams won 23-16, pushing the
spread.
Finally, in Super Bowl XXXVIII,
the Patriots needed a 41-yard Adam Vinatieri field
goal with four seconds left to beat the Carolina
Panthers, 32-29.
History tells us the Bears
are a good bet to cover, or even win, on Feb.
4. Then again, the Super Bowl is supposed to be
the place where history gets written. Not re-written.
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Super Bowl XLI
Schedule
* Who: Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago
Bears
* Where: Dolphin Stadium, Miami.
* When: Feb. 4, 6:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
* Point spread: Colts -7.
* Total: 49.5
* National Anthem Performer: Billy
Joel.
* Halftime Performer: Prince.
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TOP
PHOTO: Rex Grossman isn't getting much
respect from bettors prior to the Super Bowl.
(AP photo)
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