2007 Conference USA Preview

Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - Two years ago, Conference USA won just 11% (two of 19) of its games vs. BCS schools, but finished 12-9 ATS. Last season was an improved campaign with a 19% winning percentage against BCS teams with five wins in 27 tries. However, the conference fared poorly ATS at 12-15.

Houston and Southern Miss hooked up in the championship game last year with the Cougars gaining revenge (34-20) for an earlier season loss. With that win, Houston was awarded a berth in the Liberty Bowl, while the Golden Eagles had to settle for a victory over Ohio in the GMAC Bowl. Incidentally, that was the lone win of the five conference bowl bids.

The West Division, winner of both title games the last two years, dominated the East last season with 12 victories in the 18 head-to-head match-ups, but the tide could turn as the East looks stronger one through five. Look for an even 9-9 split with three of the Wests wins coming vs. UAB. Houston and Southern Miss will battle it out once again for 2007 Conference USA supremacy.

WEST DIVISION

1) HOUSTON - Quick question. When was the last time someone not named Kevin Kolb started at quarterback? Answer: 2002. The second-round draft choice of the Eagles guided the Cougars to three bowl games in his four years, but won seven or more games, just once. Strength - The running game, which was number one in conference play with 198 ypg and 5.3 ypc, will still be potent and the defense, with seven starters back, will be the best "D" in the West. Weakness - Houston was on the losing side in turnover margin just twice in 14 games, and with an inexperienced signal caller under center this year that number will take a turn for the worse. Bottom line - The Cougars will not be as strong as they were in 06, but the rest of the division, save for SMU, will be weaker. Still, a 7-5 mark and a conference record of 6-2 will bring them back to the title game. Houston was 8-4 ATS during the regular season and might actually do better since the public might dismiss them with Kolb taking his game to the NFL.

2) SOUTHERN METHODIST - The Mustangs have not been to a bowl game since 1984, but came "oh-so-close" last year. All they needed was a victory over Rice in the season finale, but the Owls hit paydirt with just over four minutes left to pull out the four-point win. Strength - Mark it down, SMU will lead the conference in scoring. Quarterback Justin Willis had a phenomenal freshman season completing 67% with 26 TDs. Both numbers topped Kevin Kolbs freshman campaign. Weakness - The defensive line, which held the rest of the league to 106 rushing yards per game, returns just one starter. Bottom line - This will be the year the Mustangs reach .500 with a 7-5 record and five conference wins. In addition, they will finally get their long awaited trip to a bowl game. SMU was undefeated as a home favorite in 06 and will continue that streak with five more this season.

3) TULSA - The Golden Hurricane were expecting more than another 8-4 campaign in 06 and get a new head coach in former defensive coordinator, Todd Graham. Strength - The secondary has been one of the best in the country the last four years and quarterback Paul Smith, who returns for his senior season, sports a 2-to-1 TD-INT ratio the last two years. Weakness - Four of the top five tacklers depart and the entire offensive line has a grand total of 15 career starts. Bottom line - Despite only 10 returning starters, Tulsa should still win seven games, five in the conference. The Hurricanes are 16-9 ATS the last two years, but they will finish below .500 this season.

4) RICE - The Owls improved from 1-10 to 7-6 and went bowling for the first time in 45 years, but the rest of the conference wont take them as lightly this season. Strength - Jarrett Dillard returns after catching 91 passes and 21 TDs. The secondary, which returns both starting cornerbacks, improved from last to finish third in league play, holding opposing QBs to a 56% completion percentage. Weakness - Despite the 6-2 conference record, the Owls were outscored by an average of 32-31. They finished last in the league in run defense, allowing 4.7 yards per carry, and four of their top six tacklers have exhausted their eligibility. Bottom line - Rice will be hard- pressed for a repeat, especially without 1,000-yard rusher Quinton Smith. Five wins, four in conference, is in store for 07. The Owls were 9-2 as underdogs last year. Dont expect a similar performance.

5) TEXAS-EL PASO - After consecutive 8-4 years, the Miners dipped below .500 (5-7) despite Jordan Palmers fine senior season. Strength - With a healthy offensive line, UTEP will post better rushing numbers than the paltry 58 ypg of a year ago. Weakness - The Miners finished last in conference play, allowing 170 rushing yards per game. Six members of the front seven depart, taking with them 82% of the teams sacks. Johnnie Lee Higgins and Daniel Robinson, who caught a combined 20 of Palmers 26 TD passes, also bid farewell to the college game, not to mention Palmer himself. Bottom line - It looks like a rebuilding year in El Paso. Expect a 3-9 mark, with just a pair of league victories. Stay away from them against the spread.

6) TULANE - Hurricane Katrina devastated the program in 2005, but the Green Wave rebounded by doubling their win total to four in 06. Strength - Running back Matt Forte (859 yards) was heading for a 1,000-yard campaign until an injury forced him to miss the final three games. Tulane vastly improved its run defense and with six starters returning from its front seven, look for the unit to held offenses to under four yards per carry. Weakness - The Green Wave finished last in the conference in total yards gained and yards allowed. Bottom line - Its a new era in New Orleans as Bob Toledo brings in new offensive and defensive schemes. Expect a three win season, two coming in conference play. Tulane was 3-7 as underdogs last year, but could surprise.

EAST DIVISION

1) SOUTHERN MISS - The Golden Eagles won five of their last six games to finish 9-5 and that momentum will carry them to their first Liberty Bowl since 2003. Strength - They return their top five tacklers and eight starters to a defense that led Conference USA in points allowed. Only one QB (Kevin Kolb) threw for over 200 yards against them the last eight games. Running back Damion Fletcher burst on the scene with 1,388 yards with 11 TDs his freshman season. Weakness - Fletcher will have to prove last season was no fluke as two all Conference USA O-linemen depart. Bottom line - The Eagles lead the league this decade with an average of 7.6 wins per season. Look for them to top that mark with nine victories and a splashy 7-1 conference mark. They were 5-7 ATS last year, but will easily better that in 07.

2) CENTRAL FLORIDA - After improving from 0-11 to reaching a bowl game in 2005, the Knights took a major step backward with just four wins last season. Strength - UCF sports an O-line with 124 career starts, which will send RB Kevin Smith over the 1,000-yard mark for the second time in three years. The defense registered 14 sacks, holding opponents to an average of 91 yards rushing for 3.1 ypc, over the final four games. Weakness - Can the Knights replace first team all-conference WR Mike Walker and his 90 receptions? Bottom line - All the pieces are in place for their second bowl appearance ever. George OLearys club will finish above .500 at 7-5 with a 6-2 league record. UCF went 4-7 ATS last year and will easily reverse that mark this season.

3) MEMPHIS - The Tigers were one of the nations most disappointing teams with just two victories, but lost five games by a total of just 17 points. Strength - Martin Hankins completed 60% of his throws with 18 TDs, and those numbers will improve in his second season under center. Defensive end Greg Terrell will be an all-conference performer his sophomore year, and with 10 of its top 12 tacklers returning, Memphis will cut down its points allowed by nearly a touchdown per game. Weakness - The running game must pick up since the Tigers finished in the bottom fourth in league play with only 115 yards per contest. Bottom line - Defensive coordinator Joe Lee Dunn was let go early last season and the defense took a step backwards allowing a touchdown more per game than the season before. Look for improvement all across the board in 07, and that will lead the Tigers to an 8-4 mark, 5-3 in the conference. Like UCF, Memphis is a club to invest on each and every week.

4) MARSHALL - Four victories in the final six games last year have fans in Huntington excited for the upcoming season. Strength - The Thundering Herd return two two-year starters and two one-year starters to the offensive line. Marshall finished third in league play with 20 sacks and Albert McClellan (11.5) returns for his junior season. Weakness - Bernard Morris has thrown 18 picks in just 404 passes the last two seasons and without Ahmad Bradshaw (1,523 rushing yards, 19 TDs) to hand the ball off to, he must improve his touch or it could be a long season ahead. Bottom line - The Herd are 2-10 on the road the last two years. Lucky for them most of their winnable games are at home. Theyll grab four victories this season and finish 3-5 in Conference USA. Marshall was 1-6 as an away dog in 06 and could go 0-6 in 07.

5) EAST CAROLINA - The Pirates went bowling for the first time since 2001, but were stymied by South Florida, 24-7 in the Papajohns.com Bowl. Strength - For three straight years, East Carolina allowed 4.9 yards per carry. Last season, the Pirates lowered that number to 4.0 and the front seven returns intact. Weakness - Gone are their leading rusher, reception leader and the starting quarterback, and even with a veteran unit in place last season, they still finished ninth in league play in points and yards per game. Bottom line - East Carolina will have its work cut out for them in 07 and will end up with 3-9 and 2-6 records. After an amazing 10-3 ATS mark in 06, look for a major step backwards.

6) ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM - Watson Brown was fired as head coach after 12 years at the helm, partly due to UABs worst record (3-9) since moving into the FBS, formerly known as Division 1-A. Strength - The Blazers return three of their top four tacklers. Weakness - Only eight starters return to a team that finished 95th in the country averaging 310 yards per game and 83rd in the nation giving up 359 per contest. Bottom line - New head coach Neil Callaway will have his hands full in his first season as UAB will win just one out-of- conference game. Stay clear of the Blazers against the spread all season long.

July 20, 2007, at 02:08 PM ET

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