2007 CFB Independants Preview

Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - To be a successful gambler, one must have a keen awareness as to which games present "faulty" lines. One way of getting the best of your bookmaker is to be able to jump on a team's bandwagon before the rest of the country does. Remember, the oddsmakers set lines so an equal distribution of money is wagered on both sides, rather than how much better one team is over the other.

Another way to engineer a positive bankroll besides the usual Saturday college football wager is betting on a particular team's regular season win total. Two clubs immediately jump of the page like a sore thumb.

Arizona State's number is set at 7.5 wins and the under is favored at -125 to -105. I have the Sun Devils on my list of 12 teams that will improve their fortunes by at least three games from a year ago and they will easily top the eight victories they had in '06. Bet the over.

The other squad that caught my eye was Florida. The Gators are listed at 9.5 wins and the under is favored at -140 as opposed to +110 for the over. I've written extensively in the SEC column that last year's championship team will fall off its lofty perch and be lucky to even win nine games, let alone double digits. Tap into this goldmine of a wager with both fists and take the under.

SURPRISE TEAMS FOR 2007

This topic is always open for solid debate and in some instances I have taken heat for selecting certain teams like San Diego State last year and Tulane in '05. However, the other eight clubs chosen improved from a combined 38-50 to a whopping 65-17, with Arkansas and Texas A&M leading the way in '06 and Oregon and Alabama the top two choices in '05.

This year's list includes eight clubs: Memphis, Illinois, New Mexico State, Colorado State, Bowling Green, Miami-Ohio, UCF and UL-Monroe. All eight will reach the .500 mark and beyond after sitting under that spot a year ago.

DISAPPOINTMENTS WAITING TO HAPPEN

On the other end of the spectrum, five teams will fail to reach the .500 mark this season after achieving bowl status in '06 and they will be: Maryland, East Carolina, San Jose State, Ohio, and Middle Tennessee.

Reviewing the list I compiled last year, it's interesting to see that only one of the five teams won more games in '06 than the previous campaign and that was Western Michigan. The other four (UCLA, Louisiana Tech, Colorado and Miami-Ohio) dropped from a combined 30-15 to 14-35.

What's even more impressive is how those five clubs did against the spread in each of their first five games. If one were to wager against those squads during the first month of last season, he would have covered 16 of the 25 games for a winning percentage of 64%.

So pay close attention to the lines of the abovementioned clubs early in the season and you could easily walk away with extra money in your wallet.

THE JEFF FRANK TOP 10

Today marks 2007's first installment of the Top 10 Power Rankings. I use these numbers to set up my lines each week and most selections are based on how far off the real line is from what it should be.

Heading into the season, all 119 FBS teams are ranked from top to bottom. Each club gets assigned a power number to be used in conjunction with the spread. Two to five points are then added to the home team depending on how much of an advantage each club possess.

It would be extremely time-consuming to list the top 20 each week, let alone all 119, so I will just post the top 10. Disclaimer: this preseason ranking system does not predict which teams will end up with the best records, as scheduling is not a factor. It's solely based on how each club looks heading into the season.

1) USC, 105; 2) LSU, 102.5; 3) Oklahoma, 99.5; 4) Virginia Tech, 99; 5) Louisville, 98.5; 6) Wisconsin, 98; 7) West Virginia, 97.5; 8) Texas, 97; 9) Michigan, 96.5; 10) Ohio State, 95.5

Here's how it works. If LSU hosted Virginia Tech the first week of the season instead of week two, I would have the Tigers favored by 8.5 points, since they get an extra five for playing in Baton Rouge. Hypothetically, if the game were to be played in Blacksburg, then the Hokies would be the 1.5-point choice.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

Only two teams will end the season undefeated and they will be Oklahoma and Louisville. That's not to say they are the best two teams, but based on their respective schedules and conference affiliations they have easier routes to a perfect campaign than USC and LSU.

If this scenario takes place, it will obviously send shockwaves across the country and everyone including your grandmother will clamor for that elusive playoff system. (Unfortunately, USC would not take part in a playoff since the Pac-10 commissioner has already stated he would pull his conference out of the BCS if a playoff format ever materializes.)

RATING THE INDEPENDENTS

1) NOTRE DAME (40-1) - I have no idea why the Fighting Irish are 40-1. I guess it's all in the name. They return just nine starters and the schedule is a killer.

Strengths - Whichever quarterback wins the job, he'll at least have John Carlson, the nation's top tight end, to throw to. Carlson caught 47 passes last year and is a huge target at 6-6, 255-pounds. The defense will rely on the experience of linebackers Maurice Crum and Joe Brockington, and safety Tom Zbikowski.

Weaknesses - Almost all of the club's offensive firepower is gone as Brady Quinn, Darius Walker, Jeff Samardzija and Rhema McKnight all depart. In addition, only two of the 10 two-deep offensive linemen have started games at the collegiate level. Defensively, the Irish are changing to a 3-4, which they hope will have a profound effect on stopping the run. Opponents have lit up Notre Dame for an average of 3.8 and 3.9 ypc the past two seasons.

Bottom line - Charlie Weis has his work cut out for him this year. Not only does Notre Dame lose the majority of its offense, the club has to face eight teams that reached bowl games last season in its first nine games. Expect a 6-6 season and a below .500 ATS record. The Irish are just 7-13 as a home favorite since 2003.

2) NAVY (100-1 - Field) - The Midshipmen have averaged nine wins a year the past four seasons, but won't reach that mark in 2007 with only three returning defensive starters.

Strengths - Running back Adam Ballard is healthy after breaking his leg late last year. That's the best news Navy could have received this summer, after losing more than 50% of its starters. Quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada replaced the injured Brian Hampton in the middle of the year and wound up leading the Mids to four wins in their final five games.

Weaknesses - The offensive line loses three two-year starters, and a couple of their replacements have been injured throughout the preseason, so the line might get off to a slow beginning. Only two starters return on defense and the entire "D" brings back just 32 career starts. Back in 2005, the defense returned only three starters, but the unit had 56 career starts coming back. That defense allowed six more points per game than the year before, so look for Navy to give up at least 27 ppg this season.

Bottom line - The Mids should still be able to win seven games with the likes of Temple, Duke, Delaware and North Texas on the schedule. They are an amazing 9-1 as an away underdog since '03.

3) ARMY (100-1 - Field) - The Bobby Ross era ended with a disappointing 3-9 season and last year's team had 15 returning starters. Overall, the Black Knights averaged just three wins in his three years as coach at West Point.

Strengths - The defense will keep Army in most of its games this season, as the front four will be much-improved with the addition of Iowa transfer Ted Bentler. This will also help out the secondary, which boasts three returning starters. David Pevoto and Carson Williams continue to battle it out for the starting QB spot, but whoever starts will reap the benefit of having three decent running backs, including freshman Pat Mealy, to hand off to.

Weaknesses - If the Knights are to win more than three games, they need to take better care of the football. They committed 37 turnovers last year and were dead last in the country with a -15 turnover differential. The offensive line, which returns a total of 24 career starts, will have the two quarterbacks running for their lives whenever they opt to throw the ball.

Bottom line - New head coach Stan Brock will bring the Cadets back to respectability, but it will take a few seasons. In the meantime, look for four victories on the year, after getting off to a 2-0 start for the first time since their 10-2 season in 1996. Army is 4-13 as a home underdog since '03.

August 28, 2007, at 09:21 AM ET

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