2007 Big East Conference Preview

Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - What a season it was for the Big East Conference last year with a 5-0 bowl record and three teams in the final AP Top 12. It was quite a turnaround from 2005 when the league won just one of four postseason contests and sported only one team in the Top 12.

The Big East finished 31-8 against FBS schools, including a 27-11-1 ATS mark. Two years ago, the conference was 13-13 in 26 non-league affairs. What set the group apart in 06 was how well it did vs. the other five BCS conferences. The Big East won 14 of 21 games with an incredible 16-5 ATS record. Back in 05, the league went 5-14 straight up and 9-10 ATS.

Louisville, West Virginia and Rutgers will be prime contenders once again, but this year, they will be joined by South Florida. The Bulls defeated the Mountaineers on the road and lost by only a deuce to the Scarlet Knights. If the BCS Championship odds are a barometer of what will happen, then West Virginia will be number one in the league, as the Mountaineers are 8-1 to be national champions. Louisville is a hefty 20-1, while Rutgers is a fat 100-1 and USF is 300-1. The other four schools are in the field at 75-1. Which club will actually take the title? Time now for an inside look at the Big East:

1) LOUISVILLE - Only a loss to Rutgers prevented the Cardinals from playing in the BCS Title game. The Cards were coming off a huge win over West Virginia the week before and the Scarlet Knights had 12 days to prepare for their epic win. Strengths - The offense will fight tooth and nail with Hawaii as the top two scoring teams in the nation. The key is Brian Brohms health. The conference player of the year in 2005 missed a pair of games last season and the hope is that backup QB Hunter Cantwell will not be seeing any significant minutes in 07. The defensive line is in much better shape than last year as the unit loses just two players who combined for 12 sacks rather than the three starters lost last year that registered 27.5. In addition, the secondary wont be heavily picked on with Rod Council and Jon Russell returning after missing a combined 20 games last season. Weaknesses - As is the case with the top teams in the country, there is not a whole lot to write about in this section. The only concern for new head coach Steve Kragthorpe is the back-to- back November road games vs. West Virginia and South Florida. Bottom line - If the Cardinals can get past those two hurdles, they will be in the drivers seat in terms of representing the conference for the National Championship. A 12-0 record is not out of the question and at 20-1 they are a great bet to be crowned number one.

2) RUTGERS - A triple overtime loss at West Virginia prevented the Scarlet Knights from a BCS bowl berth and sent them to the Texas Bowl against an outmatched Kansas State club. Strengths - Most of the same pieces are in place for another huge year. Mike Teel improved as the season moved along completing 65% of his throws with five touchdowns and zero interceptions the last three games. Much different numbers than his 52% completion rate and 7-13 TD-INT ratio the first nine contests. Ray Rice (1,794 rushing yards and 20 TDs) returns along with three members of the starting offensive line, a unit that led the nation allowing just eight sacks. The defense that allowed 14 ppg last season could be even better with the emergence of DE George Johnson. Weaknesses - Depth could be an issue as 10 lettermen are lost from both offense and defense. Brian Leonard and Clark Harris, who combined for 72 catches, must also be replaced. Bottom line - The schedule maker was extremely kind to Rutgers with only four road games and three of them are close to home at Syracuse, Army and Connecticut. However, the contest vs. the Huskies could be a trap game as it comes a week after the Knights will beat the Mountaineers. It looks like a 10-2 season, 5-2 in Big East play, but stay away from the Knights as an away favorite - 0-5 ATS the last two years.

3) WEST VIRGINIA - Since the contest against Louisville will be played in Morgantown, most forecasters are predicting the Mountaineers will win that game as well as the Big East Crown. They defeated the Cardinals at home in 05, but needed triple overtime to do so. Strengths - The two Heisman Trophy candidates - Pat White and Steve Slaton - were not 100% healthy for parts of last season and WVU still scored 505 points! The defense did not record a sack the first four games, but picked up 31 the final nine. Weaknesses - The Mountaineers allowed an average of 13 ppg the first seven against extremely weak competition, but that number jumped to 32 the final six games. Not the type of "D" that wins championships. Bottom line - Improvement in the secondary will decide if West Virginia has what it takes to win the league title. The Mountaineers allowed an average of 315 yards per game through the air in the last six contests. It might not hurt them until they face Louisville, but by then it will be too late. A 5-2 conference record is in the cards, along with 10 wins overall. West Virginia is just 6-12-1 as a home favorite the last four years.

4) SOUTH FLORIDA - The Bulls have had just one losing season since beginning FBS (formerly Division 1-A) play back in 2001, but it took a road win over the Mountaineers last year to put them on the national map. Strengths - The Bulls were number one in league play in scoring and total defense giving up only 19 ppg and 300 yards per game. In addition, if freshman running back Mike Ford dazzles this season as he did during the spring, USF will have its finest offensive attack in five years. Weaknesses - If Ford cant deliver, it could force QB Matt Grothe to lead the team in rushing for a second straight season. Also, this summer hasnt been too kind to Jim Leavitts program as two expected defensive starters - LB LaBrandon Glover (transferring) and S Danny Verpaele (academics) - will not play this season. Bottom line - Expectations are at its highest point ever at USF but the Bulls will remain at last years 8-4 (4-3) mark. They are 14-9 ATS the last two years, but could plummet since more action will be placed on them this season.

5) PITTSBURGH - I hesitate to put the Panthers in this position since Dave Wannstedt could be the worst Xs and Os coach in the country. Nonetheless, his solid recruiting classes the last two years will begin to take shape and prevent them from dropping to the bottom of the league. Strengths - Pittsburghs running game has failed to reach 4.0 yards per carry in god knows how long, but 2007 will be the year the unit tops the mark. LaRod Stephens- Howling and LeSean McCoy will team up and wreak havoc on opposing defensives. Last years offensive line allowed just 10 sacks in 10 of the 12 games and four of the five starters return. Weaknesses - For Pitt to return to the eight win seasons of the Walt Harris era, the defense must improve from allowing 416 total yards per game, last in conference play. It will be interesting to see how that can be accomplished as the Panthers will be without their three tacklers and all three starting linebackers from a year ago. Three-year starting QB Tyler Palko leaves but might be replaced by heralded freshman Pat Bostick. Bottom line - The Panthers have been the epitome of mediocrity at 11-12 in the two years under Wannstedt and this season will be no different. They will get out to a decent start and crumble down the stretch to finish 6-6 and 3-4 in conference play. Bet them early and bet against them late in the year.

6) CINCINNATI - New head coach Brian Kelly comes over from Central Michigan to take over at Cincinnati after the Bearcats finished off an 8-5 campaign against a brutal schedule with games vs. Ohio State, V-Tech, Louisville, West Virginia and Rutgers. Strengths - Gone are the Buckeyes and Hokies, replaced by Oregon State and San Diego State. Seven starters return to a defense that allowed 20 ppg in Big East play, good for a second place tie with the Cardinals. Weaknesses - As is the case with USF, Cincinnati was hit hard this summer as Trevor Anderson, who led the defense with six sacks, decided to transfer, and wide-out Derrick Stewart and his 20.5-yard reception average is academically ineligible. Tight end Brent Celek also moved on so the talent at the receiving position will not be anywhere near the level it was a year ago. Bottom line - Despite the easier schedule, the Bearcats will not improve off last seasons record. Expect a .500 campaign with just two league wins. They also will be a great club to wager against in 07.

7) CONNECTICUT - The Huskies have hit hard times winning only 11 of their last 25 games after an 8-4 season in 2004. Strengths - All eyes will be on quarterback Tyler Lorenzen. The junior college transfer will hopefully infuse some life into the position that had the highest interception rate per attempt (13.4) of all 119 FBS teams. Running back Donald Brown rushed for over 400 yards vs. Pitt and Rutgers and finished with 896 yards in just five starts. Look for even better numbers this year with a healthier offensive line. Weaknesses - Connecticuts defense must improve in order to reach .500. The unit allowed 34 ppg in conference play in 06, well above the 24 ppg given up in 2005. Stopping the run should be the first priority as opponents crashed the line for 4.5 yards per pop. Bottom line - If theres one Big East team capable of improving its record from a year ago its the Huskies. They will reach the .500 mark at 6-6 and win one more game (2) in conference play than last season. Connecticut will be one of the better ATS clubs in the nation.

8) SYRACUSE - The Orange gave 100% effort last year improving from 1-10 to 4-8. They also covered all five of their non-conference games, but won only one league contest. Strengths - Wide-out Taj Smith was injured last season, missing eight games. His return will help spice up an offense that ranked 110th in the country in yards per game with 264. Syracuse usually fares well in turnover margin and last year was no exception with a +11. The Orange are +36 over the last six years. Weaknesses - Running back Delone Carter injured his hip in the spring and will miss the season. Quarterback Perry Patterson, who dramatically spiced up his play last season, also wont be back. The defense lost all three of its starting linebackers, so dont expect an improved run defense after finishing 110th in the nation last year. Bottom line - There arent too many BCS schools that will be worse than Syracuse. Thankfully, Buffalo is on the schedule, so the Orange will win one game. They certainly will not match their 8-4 ATS record from a year ago.

July 30, 2007, at 02:29 PM ET

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