2007 Big 10 Conference Preview

Philadelphia, PA (My Sportsbook) - Please tell me why the Big Ten is celebrated by many as the nation's second-best conference behind the SEC? Not only did the league win just two of seven bowl games last season, its postseason record since '03 is a wretched 11-17.

Three league members ended the season ranked in the AP's Top 10, with Ohio State leading the way at number two, followed by Wisconsin at seven and Michigan at eight. However, most of the conference's non-league victories (20 of 29) came against non-BCS competition. It is obvious that the Big Ten has recently fattened itself up on the dregs of college football when one considers the league lost more games than it won (9-12) against the five other BCS conferences.

Looking ahead to 2007, it is entirely possible this conference will once again have three of its members residing in the AP's final Top 10 list, since Oregon and Missouri are the only two legitimate Top 25 teams on this year's schedule. Besides four games with Notre Dame, the 11 league members will play BCS "powers" Iowa State, Duke, Washington, Washington State, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse twice. On the other hand, the Big 12 tackles Georgia, Auburn, Iowa, Arizona State, Florida State, USC, and Miami-Florida twice.

Can Ohio State and Michigan continue their dominance (both lead the league with 19 conference victories the past three seasons) or will Wisconsin finally grab the top spot? Time to take a look at the Big Ten, with odds to win the BCS Championship:

1) WISCONSIN (30-1) - The Badgers won 12 games for the first time in school history. This season could be the year they win it all.

Strengths - The offense won't miss a beat with fifth-year senior Tyler Donovan taking over for John Stocco. Donovan won both his starts last year, completing 33-of-50 passes for 536 yards and four touchdowns. (Remember, Stocco had to replace Jim Sorgi back in '04 and all Wisconsin did was win its first nine games.) P.J. Hill burst on the scene with 1,569 yards and 15 TDs in his freshman campaign, and with four offensive line starters returning, he could easily match those numbers. Seven defensive starters return from a unit that ranked second in the nation in scoring defense.

Weaknesses - The Badgers secondary sported the biggest turnaround in the nation last year, allowing only six passing TDs after giving up 25 in '05, but both starting safeties must be replaced. The run defense must improve after finishing fifth in league play, giving up 3.9 yards per carry.

Bottom Line - The first time the Badgers won seven conference games, they did it again the following season, so look for a 7-1 mark, 11-1 overall. As for their national title hopes? A lot will depend on when they lose that one game. If it comes near the end of the year to either Ohio State or Michigan, say goodbye to the January 7 contest. Wisconsin is 11-5-1 as a home favorite the last three years.

2) OHIO STATE (30-1) - Last season's championship dreams fell flat after an embarrassing 41-14 defeat at the hands of Florida.

Strengths - The Buckeyes reached the title game despite losing their top eight tacklers from 2005. Last year, the defense finished number one in conference play in scoring (11.5 ppg) and total defense (257 yards) and should be tough to score against once again. Running back Chris Wells, who shared time with Antonio Pittman, will show the country why he was the top-rated back coming out of high school in '06 and relieve some of the pressure placed on whatever quarterback wins the starting job.

Weaknesses - Coach Jim Tressel will use the pre-Big Ten contests as sort of an exhibition season, as he figures out which of his three QBs takes control of the offense. Unfortunately this season's starter will not have Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez to throw to.

Bottom Line - The schedule-maker was extremely kind to Ohio State as Penn State and Wisconsin do not appear until the first eight games are played, which will give the squad enough time to get its offense in gear. The Buckeyes will lose two conference games prior to defeating Michigan (as they do every year) and finish the campaign at 10-2 overall. They are one of the top ATS clubs in the country covering 16 of their last 20 games.

3) MICHIGAN (8-1) - The Wolverines fell out of the number two slot in the AP Poll after Florida disposed of Arkansas, and dropped even further after USC crushed them in the Rose Bowl.

Strengths - The threesome of Chad Henne, Mike Hart and Jake Long return for their senior season, but the troika has failed to improve on its scoring output (30.8) from their freshman season. However, the offense could finally top that mark if junior wideouts Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington stay healthy.

Weaknesses - The offense better improve, because the defense will likely revert to '04 standards when the Wolverines finished fifth in league play allowing 340 yards per game. Only four schools forced their opponents to throw more than 53% of the time last year: Texas at 54%, Kansas and Florida at 56%, and Michigan led the way at a whopping 62%! That shows how difficult it was to run on the Wolverines, who allowed just 43 rushing yards per game. Unfortunately, seven starters depart, and their front seven has a grand total of 29 career starts.

Bottom Line - Michigan was primed last season for a spectacular year after a disappointing '05 campaign, but the Wolverines usually fall flat when a lot is expected of them. They will win no more than nine games and finish 6-2 in the Big Ten, and unlike Wisconsin, are just 7-11-1 as home favorites the last three years.

4) IOWA (100-1) - Coach Kirk Ferentz is on the hot seat after leading the Hawkeyes to their first losing record since his initial season in 2000.

Strengths - Eight defensive starters return, but more importantly, DE Kenny Iwebema is finally healthy after an injury-plagued 2006 season. Iowa will be extremely tough to run against, and it won't help opposing QBs that the Charles Godfrey-Adam Shada cornerback combo returns for one more season. Injuries to the offensive line, along with an underachieving season from Drew Tate, halted an explosive offense, but the top two wideouts return, along with former 1,000-yard rusher, Albert Young.

Weaknesses - Jake Christensen takes over at the QB slot, and he'll be working behind an extremely young O-line. Christensen was part of coach Ferentz's exceptional '05 recruiting class, chock full of highly-touted O-linemen, most of which will be in the starting lineup this season. Still, the lack of overall experience could be a factor early in the year.

Bottom Line - Iowa ended last season on a four-game skid, but look for a turnaround in '07 with a 9-3 mark, 5-3 in conference play. If the young studs on offense click, the Hawkeyes could surprise, especially with Ohio State and Michigan off the schedule. They also won't finish 1-10 ATS like they did last year.

5) PURDUE (500-1) - The Boilermakers did not have to play the Buckeyes or the Wolverines the last two seasons, but both are on the '07 schedule.

Strengths - Curtis Painter broke the all-time Big Ten passing record with 3,985 yards, and the team's top seven receivers all return. Believe it or not, the secondary will turn from a weakness to strength after finishing 104th in the nation in passing defense. That number is highly misleading since the unit, which was manned by a quartet with just 19 career starts, improved immensely as the season progressed. In addition Torri Williams, who missed most of the last two seasons with multiple injuries, should be ready come late September.

Weaknesses - The defensive line must move on without Anthony Spencer, who will be plying his trade in the NFL. Even with the wide-body in the lineup, Purdue allowed over 200 ypg in six of its last seven contests.

Bottom Line - Even though Purdue's seven FBS victories all came against losing teams that combined for a 28-57 record, this year's squad has 18 returning starters as opposed to the 11 of last year. Another eight-win (five in the Big Ten) campaign is in the cards. The Boilermakers, 1-7 ATS as home favorites the last two years, will have ample opportunities to improve that figure.

6) PENN STATE (30-1) - The Nittany Lions were a cut below the upper echelon of Big Ten squads last year and proved it by scoring a grand total of 19 points in three losses to Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Strengths - The secondary allowed just 10 TD passes last season and the unit will be strong once again with three returning starters. The offensive line loses first-round draft choice Levi Jones, but the other four starters return, along with QB Anthony Morelli and his top four receivers.

Weaknesses - The Lions ranked seventh in the country in rushing defense last season allowing just 87.5 ypg. They accomplished this despite returning just four starters, only one on the defensive line. However, the D-line returned 47 career starts in '05, 20 from non-returning starters. This year, the unit returns just nine career starts and zero from non-returning starters. The kicking game must improve as Kevin Kelly has converted only half of his career attempts from 30+ yards.

Bottom Line - Penn State was ranked near the bottom in the Big Ten last year in almost every offensive category, and with the loss of Tony Hunt, the paltry numbers might not get much better. The Lions are 4-19 against Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa this decade (24-9 vs. the rest of the league), and until they show they can beat the big boys, don't expect anything more than four conference wins, eight overall. Penn State is 3-8 ATS since 2003 as an away underdog.

7) ILLINOIS (100-1 - Field) - Last year's column had this to say about the Illini: "Statistically, the Illini will be much improved but it might not show in the standings." Truer words could not have been written as Illinois finished 2-10 but was fourth best in Big Ten play in yardage differential.

Strengths - Illini football begins with defense. The unit held the top three league running backs they faced (P.J. Hill, Antonio Pittman and Tony Hunt) to a TOTAL of 160 yards. Two years ago Illinois allowed 27 passing TDs with just four interceptions. Last season, the club gave up only 11 TDs through the air with 10 picks. Nine starters return on "D" for the second straight season, so look for continued improvement. The passing game, which was a horror show last year, will be ten times better as Juice Williams begins his second season with true freshman WR Arrelious Benn lighting it up downfield.

Weaknesses - Even though the offense averaged seven points more per game in league play than in '05, the unit still failed to score 20 points or more in half its games. Turnovers must be kept to a minimum as the -15 TO differential shows why the team did not win more than two games.

Bottom Line - Illinois will go from 2-10 to 7-5 (4-4 in the conference). Ron Zook's squad could also be the top ATS club in the league.

8) INDIANA (100-1 - Field) - When was the last time Illinois and Indiana were not selected 10th and 11th in the preseason Big Ten poll? The Hoosiers' five victories equaled 2001's five-win campaign, the most since 1994.

Strengths - Nine offensive starters return, including sophomore quarterback Kellen Lewis, who will end up breaking most of Antwaan Randle-El's records before his career is through. Lewis will hopefully get a full season from WR James Hardy, who has struggled with injuries and suspensions his first two seasons.

Weaknesses - Indiana's defense allowed 32.8 ppg, along with giving up exactly 442 ypg in Big Ten play each of the last two years. Those numbers must decrease if the Hoosiers are to take their game to the next level.

Bottom Line - Assistant coach Bill Lynch takes over for Terry Hoeppner in what will be an emotional season for the folks in Bloomington. Indiana almost reached .500 last year, and like Illinois, will achieve that plateau in '07 at 7-5, 3-5 in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers are also a good bet to cover more games than not against the spread.

9) NORTHWESTERN (100-1 - Field) - The Wildcats were forced to play without their starting quarterback until the eighth game, and finished with their worst record (4-8) since 2002.

Strengths - Northwestern's offense averaged 14 ppg without C.J. Bacher, and 20 ppg when he was healthy. Super RB Tyrell Sutton was lost without a top QB, but came to life once Bacher returned. The defense also improved the second half of the season allowing 17 points or less in three of its last four.

Weaknesses - Opposing Big Ten teams ran right through the Wildcats' front seven to the tune of 4.9 ypc. That's one area where the defense did not improve late in the season, giving up 5.2 ypc the final four games.

Bottom Line - Northwestern is 23-24 in regular season play since 2003. Look for similar results this season as the 'Cats finish at 6-6, 2-6 in league play. They are just 2-5 in their last seven games as home favorites.

10) MICHIGAN STATE (100-1 - Field) - After winning only 13 of 34 games the last three seasons, the university said goodbye to head coach John L. Smith and brought in Cincinnati's Mark Dantonio.

Strengths - With Drew Stanton taking his tack to the NFL, look for the Spartans to do most of their damage on the ground. Both running backs return along with four o-line starters. Unlike Northwestern, the rush defense was super the last four games of '06, allowing two yards less per carry than in its first four conference matchups.

Weaknesses - If the Spartans have any chance for success, the secondary has to wake up. This unit has given up 57 passing TDs the last two seasons. Brian Hoyer, who takes over for Stanton, was outplayed in the spring game by redshirt freshman Conner Dixon.

Bottom Line - John L. Smith took a 4-8 squad to 8-4 in his first season. It will be a miracle year for Dantonio if he accomplishes the same feat. Loads of question marks remain in East Lansing, which will produce another 4-8, 1-7 campaign. MSU is 11-26 as a favorite since 2001. They won't be favored in too many in '07.

11) MINNESOTA (100-1 - Field) - Tim Brewster takes over for Glen Mason, who had guided the Golden Gophers to five straight bowl appearances.

Strengths - Minnesota has produced 1,000-yard rushers by the score, but might not this year as the offense switches to a spread formation. Eight starters return to a defense that the new coaching staff wants to "attack with attitude."

Weaknesses - In order to run the spread offense, multiple receivers are needed, something the Gophers lack heading into the new season. In fact, the defense has ripped apart the offense during spring and the early fall practices.

Bottom Line - Minnesota will be lucky to win one conference game, and will also lose to Bowling Green the first week of the season. If Brewster and company win four games, they'll take it. Bet against the Gophers each and every Saturday.

August 13, 2007, at 05:21 PM ET

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