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As it stands, however,
only the Panthers are being given a real shot
to win it all.
Let's take a closer look:
Carolina Panthers - 2005 Record: 11-5 SU; 9-7 ATS
Odds to win 2007 NFC South Championship: 5/8
It's a heck of a thing to
make it all the way to the conference championship
game and get the ball stuffed down your throat.
But that's exactly what happened to the Panthers.
Maybe Carolina had run out
of gas by the time it rolled into Seattle, or
it just didn't have the personnel to get it done.
Whatever the case, the Seahawks ended the Panthers'
season by racking up 190 rushing yards against
a team that allowed just 91.6 per game in the
regular season.
The good news for Panthers'
fans heading into 2006 is that the problems of
yesteryear appear to have found legitimate solutions:
Problem: Defending the
run.
Solution:
The team signed two veteran tackles - Maake Kemoeatu
from Baltimore and Damione Lewis from St. Louis
- in the offseason. They'll join tackle Kris Jenkins,
a two-time Pro Bowler, to form what could be one
of the best run-stopping units in football. Only
Jenkins' health is a concern - he's played just
five games in the last two seasons.
Problem: Staying healthy
at running back.
Solution:
There's no questioning DeShaun Foster's
big-play ability. He proved it when he broke four
tackles to score against Philadelphia in the 2003-04
NFC Championship game. He did it again two weeks
later in Super Bowl XL when he broke a 33-yard
run for a touchdown against New England.
The problem is, you can't
make big plays when you're hurt, and last year
when Foster went down with a broken ankle in a
playoff game against Chicago, Carolina found itself
up the creek without a running game - just in
time for the NFC Championship against Seattle.
The drafting of DeAngelo
Williams out of the University of Memphis should
give the Panthers the insurance policy they so
desperately needed in 2005. Williams is an explosive
runner who should be given an opportunity to contribute
even if Foster stays healthy.
Problem:Taking the heat
off Steve Smith.
Solution:
The Seahawks' defense had one job in the NFC Championship
Game: stop Steve Smith. That's because he was
quarterback Jake Delhomme's only real weapon at
receiver. With 1,563 yards in 2005, Smith gained
more than three times the amount of yards in the
air than second-best Panther Ricky Proehl (441
yards). That should change this year with the
addition of Keyshawn Johnson. The veteran who
moved to Carolina from Dallas is closing in on
10,000 career receiving yards and, provided he
can keep his mouth shut, will supply the passing
game with another dangerous dimension.
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The Bottom Line
Carolina has all the tools to win
the Super Bowl. It's the overwhelming
favorite to cruise through the division,
and rightly so. The Panthers open
the season at home against Atlanta,
a team they dominated last year.
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Atlanta Falcons - 2005 Record: 8-8 SU; 8-8 ATS
Odds to win 2007 NFC South Championship: 3/1
It seems like the same ol'
story in Atlanta. Questions surround quarterback
Michael Vick's consistency and throwing ability.
The run will be the offensive play of choice.
And the front four will be deadly.
Starting with Vick, while
it's tough to compare him to other QBs without
his running ability, the fact remains his 73.1
passer rating in 2005 put him in the same company
as Josh McCown (74.9) and Brooks Bollinger (72.9).
That's not good. The loss of veteran receiver
Brian Finneran for the season is even worse. Atlanta's
next two on the depth chart, Michael Jenkins and
Roddy White, have just three seasons of combined
experience.
But to those who maintain
Vick throws too many interceptions, his mark of
0.034 picks per attempt is right in line with
Ben Roethlisberger (0.034) and Drew Bledsoe (0.034)
- and everyone knows which of the three you'd
take in a foot race.
Moving on, the running game
that's ranked first in the NFL for two seasons
will once again be solid, led by Warrick Dunn
and contract-year T.J. Duckett (and Vick). So
too will the defensive line, especially with the
addition of right end John Abraham (from the Jets).
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The Bottom Line
It's all up to Vick. He doesn't have
to be Dan Marino in the pocket, but
he does have to up his completion
percentage. Think he can do it? Bet
on the Falcons. Think he can't. Don't.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2005 Record: 11-5 SU; 8-8 ATS
Odds to win 2007 NFC South Championship: 7/2
The Bucs made very few changes
in the offseason. And why would they? In addition
to the top-ranked defense in the NFL, Tampa Bay
boasts two of the more promising young players
in football with Chris Simms at quarterback and
Cadillac Williams at running back.
"The biggest thing is
there's no self-doubt anymore," Simms told
ESPN.com at training camp. "It's important,
sure, that my teammates know what I can do. But
it's more important that I know it."
Simms will have plenty of
help from those trusting teammates - receiver
Joey Galloway is as solid as they come, and another
guy with a ton of upside is Michael Clayton.
Clayton had a big year in
2004 (1,193 yards receiving), then dropped off
significantly in 2005 (372 yards). He'll be the
first to blame his poor season on a lax work ethic,
but there were also nagging injuries that required
offseason surgery.
As for Williams, it will
be interesting to see how he handles his sophomore
season. In his first three games as a pro, flying
largely under the radar, he racked up an amazing
434 yards on the ground. Those numbers declined
in the second half of the season. He was also
ineffective in the Bucs' playoff loss to Washington,
running for just 49 yards and fumbling the ball
away.
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The Bottom Line
If the young guys perform, the Bucs
should once again challenge Carolina
in the standings. However, that's
a big "if".
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New Orleans Saints - 2005 Record: 3-13 SU; 5-10-1 ATS
Odds to win 2007 NFC South Championship: 11/2
It's a double-edged sword
for new Saints coach Sean Payton. On the one edge,
he gets two things former field boss Jim Haslett
didn't: Drew Brees and Reggie Bush. On the other,
there's the reality that those two additions probably
aren't good enough for a playoff spot.
New Orleans has significant concerns in the following two
areas: the offensive line and run defense. And
that would be fine if the Saints played the Saints
every week - it would just balance out - but Brees
and Bush are going to have long seasons if they
don't get any protection or blocking. Or, for
that matter, any time on the field.
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The Bottom Line
The good people of New Orleans will
be happy to have the Saints back in
town. That's about it.
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TOP PHOTO: With the addition
of Keyshawn Johnson, Carolina's Steve Smith won't
have to do it all by himself this year. (AI Wire
photo)
Note: All
NFL lines subject to change.
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