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as "the Snake" transformed from an erratic,
freelancing gunslinger to an efficient, composed
leader.
No Mistake Jake threw 227
pass attempts without an interception. He was
named to the Pro Bowl. His 91.2 passer rating,
a career high, was seventh best in the NFL.
But then the playoffs came.
A 34-17 loss to Pittsburgh featured two interceptions
and two fumbles by Plummer.
No Mistake Jake? Bitten by
the Snake.
Whether it was a direct result
of that playoff loss or simply looking to the
future, the Broncos made one thing abundantly
clear by drafting Vanderbilt star Jay Cutler this
spring - Plummer is now on the shortest of short
leashes. Despite leading the Broncos to their
first playoff victory in the post-John Elway era,
Plummer has yet to shed the tag of a QB who falls
apart in big games. And that doesn't sit well
with anybody in the Broncos' organization.
Plummer will be watched keenly
in a division that boasts some of the finest pass-rushers
in the NFL. Herm Edwards brought in rookie DE
Tamba Hali to pair with Jared Allen, beefing up
the Kansas City defensive line. Oakland's Derrick
Burgess, last year's sack leader (16), is back
and looking to duplicate his 2005 numbers. San
Diego's Pro Bowl LB Shawne Merriman returns after
recording 10 sacks in 10 starts a year ago. Simply
put, this is not a division where you want to
start a shaky QB.
Denver Broncos - 2005 Record: 13-3 straight up; 11-4-1 against the spread
Odds to win 2007 AFC West Championship: 1/1
The time is now for the Broncos,
make no mistake. With Plummer (32), Rod Smith
(36) and John Lynch (35) getting longer in the
tooth, the urgency to reach the Super Bowl will
be great this season.
The offense that surrounds
Plummer has changed parts, but looks to be as
competent as the one he starred in a year ago.
With 1,000-yard back Mike Anderson gone, head
coach Mike Shanahan will go with a three-headed
monster at RB - Ron Dayne, Mike Bell and Tatum
Bell. Given Shanahan's penchant for turning "no-name"
runners into big gainers (think Terrell Davis,
Reuben Droughns and Olandis Gary), rotating through
the aforementioned threesome should compensate
for the lack of a true No. 1.
Smith returns as Plummer's
favorite receiver. Having led the Broncos in receiving
for nine straight years, Smith has established
himself as one of the most reliable WRs in the
game. By bringing in Pro Bowler Javon Walker and
jettisoning the underachieving Ashley Lelie, the
Broncos have created their most talented receiving
duo in years. The only real question on offense?
How the team will cope with the loss of coordinator
Gary Kubiak, long regarded as the architect for
the stellar Denver run game.
Defensively, the team upgraded
its already strong secondary by welcoming back
former first-round pick Willie Middlebrooks. He'll
join Pro Bowlers Champ Bailey and Lynch in the
defensive backfield. But the heart of the Broncos'
defense is its linebacking crew, led by another
Pro Bowler, Al Wilson. He's joined by Ian Gold
and D.J. Williams, forming one of the fastest
trios in the league. They were a big part of the
Denver unit that only allowed 16.1 points per
game a year ago - third best in the NFL.
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The Bottom Line
Last year, the Broncos were a nightmare
to run against. They gave up a stingy
85.2 rush yards per contest, the second-best
mark in the league. While they lost
run-stuffing end Trevor Pryce, they
picked up former Brown Kenard Lang
to plug into the D-Line. They've got
one of the best front sevens in the
business and will need that staunch
run defense if they plan on repeating
as AFC West champs.
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Kansas City Chiefs - 2005 Record: 10-6 SU; 10-5-1 ATS
Odds to win 2007 AFC West Championship: 3/2
A lot of people are making
the Chiefs their chic pick to represent the AFC
in Miami.
Don't count me as one of
those people.
Yes, Larry Johnson is one
of the best backs in the NFL. And Herm Edwards
is known as a great defensive and motivational
coach. But those two claims only mask the major
problems KC has shown this preseason. Losing Willie
Roaf and John Welbourn to retirement hurt more
than you know, given that their two best remaining
linemen - Will Shields and Casey Wiegmann - are
35 and 33, respectively. They're going to try
to replace Roaf with former Saints/Rams wacko
Kyle Turley (now weighing in at a lithe 275 pounds),
who has already been destroyed in two preseason
games.
As for Edwards - for a great
motivator, his New York Jets were a flat team
last year. Undermanned and injury-plagued sure,
but they displayed little in the way of fight
or fire when their backs were up against the wall.
Edwards will need to be at the top of his game
to motivate a defense that ranked 30th against
the pass a year ago. Will the addition of Pro
Bowl CB Ty Law be enough? Most of the defensive
unit that ranked 25th overall a year ago are still
in house.
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The Bottom Line
Kansas City's Super Bowl march has
been halted by a brutal defense for
the last few years. In 2005, it cost
them the playoffs altogether. They're
going to need stellar performances
by Law, Patrick Surtain and Lenny
Walls in the secondary; they'll also
need young guys like Hali, Derrick
Johnson and Kendrell Bell to play
above their heads to stay afloat in
a terribly tough division.
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San Diego Chargers - 2005 Record: 9-7 SU; 9-6-1 ATS
Odds to win 2007 AFC West Championship: 5/2
Given how much talent they
had at their disposal, the Chargers were a big
disappointment in 2005. A solid offense (10th
overall) teamed with the best rush defense in
the NFL (84.3 yards allowed per game) should have
gotten them, at the very least, into the playoffs.
So what went wrong?
A killer schedule, for one.
And a pass defense made of swiss cheese. The secondary
gave up 224.9 yards per contest, the fourth-worst
total in the league. To their credit, the Chargers
addressed this issue, drafting ultra-athletic
CB Antonio Cromartie and signing former Carolina
safety Marlon McCree.
One problem fixed, another
one still in limbo - the QB position. San Diego
let Drew Brees walk, convinced that this was the
most opportune time to let the highly touted Phillip
Rivers cut his teeth. Thankfully for Rivers, he's
got arguably the NFL's finest RB (LaDainian Tomlinson)
and TE (Antonio Gates) to help him with the learning
curve. The wide receiving crew lacks star power,
but is solid enough to compliment Tomlinson and
Gates.
Defensively, 2005 first-round
picks Merriman and Luis Castillo showed they were
the real deal in their rookie campaigns.
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The Bottom Line
The Chargers are a classic Marty
Schottenheimer team - run the ball
and dominate with a strong front seven
(aside from the No. 1 rushing defense,
the Chargers also tied for fifth with
46 sacks). But the secondary will
need to vastly improve if they want
to make some noise in the AFC. Only
three teams had fewer interceptions
(10) last season - the additions of
Cromartie and McCree will have to
pay big dividends.
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Oakland Raiders - 2005 Record: 4-12 SU; 5-11 ATS
Odds to win 2007 AFC West Championship: 10/1
Oakland struggled at the
pivot position last season, as Kerry Collins continued
his descent from "servicable QB" to
"statuesque QB". His inconsistencies
were too much for the Raiders to overcome - so
they let him walk and brought in Aaron Brooks.
It was a head-scratcher of a move - mostly because
Brooks and inconsistency go together like peanut
butter and jelly, or socks and shoes.
After Brooks, the silver-and-black
made a commitment to fixing the defense. The 27th
ranked unit from a year ago really had only one
positive - Burgess, who lead the NFL in sacks
- and need an overhaul, especially against the
run. To fix a unit that allowed 128.1 yards per
game in '05, the Raiders drafted Texas stud safety
Michael Huff in the first round (and went on to
draft defensive players in the second and fourth
as well). They also beefed up with LB Robert Thomas,
CB Tyrone Poole and DE Lance Johnstone.
Offensively, the Raiders
have weapons, but don't really know how to use
them. Running back LaMont Jordan was brought in
to be a workhorse back, and ended up catching
70 passes (second most on the team). Randy Moss
was brought in to be an explosive receiving option,
but spent most of the year on the limp. Jerry
Porter looked to have finally emerged as a bona-fide
No. 2 WR, but is now holding out over a contract
dispute.
Even with legendary Raiders
coach Art Shell back in the mix, it could be another
long season in Oakland.
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The Bottom Line
Jordan quietly emerged as one of
the most well-rounded backs in the
NFL last season, compiling over 1,500
all-purpose yards and scoring 11 TDs.
He's a bigger key to the offense than
Brooks and perhaps even Moss, as his
ability to catch passes out of the
backfield truly makes him a double-threat.
Simply put, he'll need to have an
even bigger season than last year
if the Raiders have any hope of a
playoff spot.
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TOP PHOTO: Jake Plummer will
have to be mistake free - again - if the Broncos
want to repeat in the AFC West. (AI Wire photo)
Note: All
NFL lines subject to change.
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