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This year, though, the
Marino-Manning correlation may be more relevant
than ever. With Edgerrin James relocating to the
Valley of the Sun, Manning will now embark on
a career without a trusty, Pro Bowl-caliber runner
in the backfield. That's something Marino (who
lined up with the likes of Lorenzo Hampton, Sammie
Smith, Mark Higgs and Bernie Parmalee) knew all
too well during his 17-year career.
For the rest of the division,
though, James's departure means something entirely
different. It's the first visible chink in the
Colts' offensive armour. It gives Jacksonville,
Tennessee and Houston the mental edge to contain
what appeared to be an unstoppable scoring machine.
And the three bridesmaids
will need all they can get to knock Indy off the
top of the divisional wedding cake. The Colts
have gone 16-2 versus the AFC South during their
three-year reign of dominance; only the Jaguars
have defeated them in regular-season play since
2003.
Indianapolis Colts - 2005 Record: 14-2 SU; 9-6-1 ATS
Odds to win 2007 AFC South Championship: 2/9
You couldn't blame Indianapolis
if it started to look past the regular season.
That's what four consecutive playoff failures
(and a 3-7 record over the past 10 years) will
do to a team.
But with the AFC South looking
as suspect as ever, 2006 is shaping up to be yet
another regular season of Colt dominance. Except
for James, all the key components from the NFL's
most efficient offense return. Coach Tony Dungy
seems confident that a platoon system of Dominic
Rhodes and LSU rookie Joseph Addai will adequately
replace The Edge.
But the biggest addition
to the offense might come at one of the least
celebrated positions. The King of Clutch, Adam
Vinatieri, steps in to replace the talented-but-flaky
Mike Vanderjagt. Manning reportedly "loves"
having Vinatieri on board, and has already established
a rhythm for two-minute drills and quick-scoring
drives. This could impact the point totals for
the touchdown-crazy Indy offense; with a trustworthy
kicker in the bag and inexperienced backs running
the ball, the Colts could find themselves frequently
in scoring position, but not always in the end
zone.
Defensively, the Colts made
major strides last year, finishing second in the
league in points allowed. But with a thinned-out
front seven (starting LB David Thorton and DT
Larry Tripplett flew the coop this offseason),
the suspect run defense becomes even weaker. While
still one of the best pass-rushing units with
Cato June, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, the
Colts must make a commitment to stopping the run,
an Achilles' heel in several posteason defeats.
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The Bottom Line
With myriad weapons on offense, James
often got lost in the shuffle. But
there is no denying the impact he
had on the Indy offense - he went
for more than 1,200 yards five times
and scored 64 touchdowns in 94 games.
His ability to run and catch out the
backfield can't be understated - he
is the NFL's all-time leader in yards
per game, with 125.7. Second? Jim
Brown, with 125.5.
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Jacksonville Jaguars - 2005 Record: 12-5 SU; 9-6-2 ATS
Odds to win 2007 AFC South Championship: 3/1
A former standout linebacker
with the USC Trojans (where he was an All-American)
and the Minnesota Vikings (where he played in
the 1994 Pro Bowl), Jack Del Rio always liked
his defense. And nowhere has that been more evident
than in his three-year stint as the head coach
of the Jaguars.
Del Rio's commitment to youth
and defense has paid off in a major way. After
going 5-11 and 9-7 in his first two campaigns
in Jacksonville, the team reached new heights
in 2005. A 12-4 record (second-best in franchise
history) and the league's sixth-ranked defense
(allowing just 16.8 points per game) had the Jaguars
as the top-seeded wild-card team in the AFC. Despite
being snuffed out by the Patriots in the opening
round, the core of stalwarts on defense - tackle
Marcus Stroud, linebacker Mike Peterson and CB
Rashean Mathis - has hopes high for the upcoming
season.
The offense in Jacksonville,
however, is far less impressive than the defense.
Ironman QB Byron Leftwich is once again behind
center, having fully recovered from the broken
ankle that cost him the tail end of last year.
He also lost sure-handed WR Jimmy Smith to retirement,
and will look to uber-athlete (WR/QB/KR) Matt
Jones to fill the void. Smith was Leftwich's receiving
security blanket; former first-round picks Reggie
Williams and Mercedes Lewis will have to step
up if the passing game wants to succeed for the
first time under Del Rio. His previous three years
have seen the unit ranked 19th, 19th and 15th
in the NFL.
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The Bottom Line
Smith's retirement caught the Jaguars
off guard, and for good reason. He's
been a model of consistency, having
eclipsed the 1,000-yard receiving
mark in nine of the last 10 seasons.
Jacksonville will be hard-pressed
to replace the offense Smith provided,
as none of the three candidates to
replace him - Jones, Williams or Ernest
Wilford - have gone over 700 yards
in a single year.
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Tennessee Titans - 2005 Record: 4-12 SU; 6-10 ATS
Odds to win 2007 AFC South Championship: 15/1
The rebuilding phase is on
in Tennessee. Having jettisoned the face of the
franchise - 2003 co-MVP Steve McNair - to Baltimore
this summer, it seems as though the Titans are
ready for a changing of the guard. And while the
youth movement may include some growing pains,
there is much excitement in the air about two
college stars who shone in the Rose Bowl a year
ago - LenDale White and Vince Young.
The two will play in an offense
designed by former USC coordinator Norm Chow.
At first, it'll be run by stopgaps like QB Billy
Volek, WR Drew Bennett and RB Travis Henry. But
make no mistake - this team is building around
White and Young. Former Pats WR David Givens -
a favorite target of Tom Brady's back in the day
- has inked for the long-term and should provide
some depth to a suspect receiving group.
Defensively, the Titans are
an above-average unit with some star power at
key positions. OLB Keith Bulluck is one of the
best in the business, he'll be joined by former
Colt David Thorton to make one of the most athletic
outside linebacking combos in the league. In the
secondary, all eyes will be on Pacman Jones, the
sixth overall pick in the 2005 draft. After a
disappointing rookie campaign, the Titans are
hopeful that the dynamic cornerback and return
man will spark both the defense and special teams.
He'll be joined in the secondary by newly acquired
SS Chris Hope, the former Steeler known for his
excellent cover abilities.
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The Bottom Line
The Titans have to figure out a way
to effectively run the ball this year.
In 2005, Tennessee did not have a
100-yard rusher in any game all season.
While they do have quality backs on
the roster - White, Henry and Chris
Brown - all three have struggled with
recent injuries. White could be the
guy, as his success under Chow at
USC leads many to believe he's tailor-made
for the Titans' offensive scheme.
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Houston Texans - 2005 Record: 2-14 SU; 7-9 ATS
Odds to win 2007 AFC North Championship: 10/1
The butt end of many a joke
last season (several of them courtesy of Bodog
Nation), the Texans appear primed to shed the
loser label in 2006. Their biggest issue from
a year ago? Defense. The unit ranked 31st in the
league, including an embarrassing run defense
that ranked dead last and gave up 143.9 yards
per game.
The solution? Bulk up the
front seven. Houston used the first overall pick
to draft DE Mario Williams, and went on to add
Anthony Weaver and N.D Kalu to the line. Linebackers
Sam Coward and Wali Rainer were also brought in
to add extra bulk.
Of course, getting trampled
by opposing running backs wasn't the only problem
in Houston. QB David Carr got sacked. A lot. Bringing
in Pro Bowl center Mike Flanagan should help,
but if the blockers can't keep Carr from getting
maimed, the offense isn't going anywhere. New
head coach Gary Kubiak has some more toys to work
with as well - TE Jeb Putzier (who he coached
in Denver), WRs Eric Moulds and Kevin Walter,
and RB Antowain Smith should give Carr a few more
options for the nanoseconds of decision-making
time he has before the pocket collapses and swallows
him whole.
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The Bottom Line
One of the few (very, very few) bright
spots in Houston last year was a surprisingly
decent run game. Averaging 113.5 yards
per game, the unit ranked 15th in
the league, which is saying something
for a two-win team. They'll need to
build on that, and they should with
Kubiak, who engineered several outstanding
run-oriented offenses in Denver over
the last 10 years.
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TOP PHOTO: Peyton Manning
will have to adjust to life AE (After Edge) in
2006. (AI Wire photo)
Note: All
NFL lines subject to change.
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