Patriots vs Chargers Preview

(My Sportsbook) - The San Diego Chargers have a huge test in their first postseason game in two years, as they play host to the New England Patriots in an AFC Divisional Playoff game this Sunday at Qualcomm Stadium.

At 14-2, the Chargers had the NFL's top record this season, as well as the best mark in franchise history. However, the team also has the distinction of not winning a playoff contest since the 1994 AFC Championship Game in Pittsburgh.

The Chargers were last in the postseason following the 2004 campaign and were knocked out in the opening round by the New York Jets.

This year San Diego sealed up a first-round bye and homefield advantage with its excellent record. The club also possesses running back LaDainian Tomlinson, this year's Associated Press NFL MVP. Tomlinson set an NFL record with 31 touchdowns and helped San Diego close out the regular season with 10 consecutive wins.

Like the Chargers franchise, San Diego head coach Marty Schottenheimer also has something to prove in the playoffs. Schottenheimer is just 5-12 all-time in the postseason and hasn't won a playoff game since he led the Kansas City Chiefs to two wins in the 1993 tournament.

Meanwhile, the Patriots and their head coach Bill Belichick are not exactly lacking playoff success in recent years, as New England has won three of the last five Super Bowls.

After last week's 37-16 wild-card round victory over the visiting New York Jets, Belichick improved to an amazing 12-2 all-time in the postseason. Pats quarterback Tom Brady threw for 212 yards and a pair of touchdowns to lead his team.

New England also ended the regular season on a hot streak, winning five of their last six games to secure its fifth AFC East title in six years.

However, all the recent success is hardly enough to make Belichick and the Patriots forget the team's 27-13 loss in Denver during last year's AFC Divisional Playoffs.

SERIES HISTORY

New England has a 17-13-2 lead in its all-time series against San Diego, but the Chargers handed the Patriots a lopsided 41-17 defeat in Foxborough during Week 4 of the 2005 campaign. San Diego also posted a 21-14 victory over New England in the Pats' most recent visit to Qualcomm Stadium, which came in 2002. New England's last win in the series was a 29-26 overtime affair in Foxborough in 2001.

The clubs have met once previously during the postseason, with San Diego earning a 51-10 triumph in the 1963 AFL Championship.

Belichick is 2-4 in his career against San Diego, including a 1-2 record while with the Browns from 1991 through 1995. Schottenheimer is 7-1 against New England in his career, including a 3-1 mark while with the Chiefs (1989-98) and 2-0 while with the Browns (1984-88). Schottenheimer is 3-2 head-to-head against Belichick in his career.

PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. CHARGERS DEFENSE

If there is a name more synonymous with the Patriots' recent Super Bowl success than Belichick's, it's that of Brady. The 29-year-old has been under center for all three of New England's world titles and jumped out to a good start in this year's postseason last week. Brady (3,529 yards, 24 TD, 12 INT) posted a passer rating of 101.6 against the Jets by completing 22-of-34 passes for 212 yards and two TDs. The Pats like to spread the ball around to all of their receivers, and that was the case last Sunday as Brady completed passes to seven different players. Jabar Gaffney (11 receptions, 142 yards, 1 TD) led the way with eight catches for 104 yards, while Reche Caldwell (61 receptions, 760 yards, 4 TD) caught five balls for 50 yards. Caldwell has become Brady's favorite target since Deion Branch was traded to Seattle back in September. Tight end Benjamin Watson, who caught 49 balls for 643 yards and three TDs this year, had four catches for 24 yards against New York. Overall this season, the Patriots were 12th in the NFL with an average of 212.5 passing yards per game.

Most football experts believe the way to stop the Patriots offense is to get to the quarterback, and San Diego may have the personnel to do so on Sunday. The Chargers had the most sacks in the NFL this year with 61 and the pass- rushing attack is led by controversial outside linebacker Shawne Merriman. The second-year star led the league with 17 sacks despite missing four games in the middle of the season for violating the NFL's steroid policy. Merriman (62 tackles, 1 INT) has 27 sacks in 27 career regular-season games, but this week will mark the former University of Maryland star's first postseason contest. Merriman's fellow outside linebacker, Shaun Phillips (65 tackles), was second on the team with 11 1/2 sacks. Cornerback Quentin Jammer (78 tackles, 4 INT) is the team's best cover guy and can make teams pay with interceptions, especially when the pass-rushers do their job. The Chargers were ranked 13th in the NFL with 200.8 passing yards allowed per game during the regular season.

The Patriots use a balanced rushing attack and as a result had five players with at least 100 yards rushing during the regular season. The two main backs for New England are veteran Corey Dillon and rookie Laurence Maroney. Dillon, the 14th-ranked rusher in NFL history, led the Pats with 812 yards and 13 TDs on the ground this year. He carried the ball 10 times for 53 yards and a touchdown last week against New York. Maroney was the primary runner in the opening round of the playoffs and ended with 69 yards on 18 attempts. The first-round pick out of Minnesota rushed for 745 yards and six touchdowns in his inaugural NFL season. The Pats use Kevin Faulk primarily as a receiver out of the backfield, but he also carried the ball 25 times for 123 yards and a touchdown during the regular season. As a team the Pats were ranked 12th in rushing this year, with 123.1 yards per game on the ground.

San Diego's rushing defense was excellent all year long and finished the regular season ranked seventh in the NFL with 100.8 yards per game allowed on the ground. One of the biggest reasons the Chargers are adept at stopping the run is the presence of nose tackle Jamal Williams in the middle. Williams (69 tackles, 2 sacks) was named to his second consecutive All-Pro team this year and is widely considered as the glue that keeps San Diego's 3-4 defense together. Another important component of San Diego's rush defense lies in the play of inside linebackers Donnie Edwards, who finished the season with a team-high 141 tackles and Randall Godfrey (57 tackles, 4 sacks).

CHARGERS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE

All eyes will be on the NFL MVP this Sunday in San Diego, and that includes those belonging to the New England defenders. Tomlinson (1,815 yards, 28 TDs) put together an amazing season in 2006, breaking numerous NFL records while practically putting the Chargers on his back during their season-ending win streak. "L.T." also secured his first-ever rushing title and was near the top of the league with an average of 5.2 yards per carry. The only strike against Tomlinson heading into this week's contest is the fact that he lacks a great deal of playoff experience. Tomlinson's only career postseason game was two years ago in the loss to the Jets, and he disappointed that night with 80 yards on 26 carries. "L.T." would love to put that performance behind him by having a big day against one of the most-respected defenses in the NFL. Michael Turner has been an excellent complement to Tomlinson this year and finished the regular season with 502 rushing yards on 80 carries. As a team, the Chargers were second in the NFL with an average of 161.1 rushing yards per game.

The Patriots have perfected the "bend but don't break" style of defense and showed that last Sunday against the Jets. New York gained 347 yards of total offense and 18 first downs, but was held to just 16 points. For the season, New England was second in the NFL with just 14.8 points allowed per game. The Pats' defense specializes in stopping the run, and the team ranked fifth in the NFL in that category during the regular season with an average of 94.2 yards per game surrendered on the ground. New England's 3-4 defense is stabilized by the front three, which features nose tackle Vince Wilfork (50 tackles, 1 sack), and defensive ends Richard Seymour (40 tackles, 4 sacks) and Ty Warren (84 tackles, 7.5 sacks). The Patriots also have excellent linebackers, including inside men Tedy Bruschi (112 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Mike Vrabel (89 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 3 INT). New England made running the ball difficult for the Jets in the opening round of the playoffs, as it gave up just 70 total yards on the ground. Bruschi led the team with nine tackles, while Seymour paced the line with four stops.

San Diego's passing attack was thought to be a huge question mark at the start of this season because the team was relying on a first-year starting quarterback to lead the offense. However, Philip Rivers did a more than adequate job under center and was even selected to the Pro Bowl as a reserve. Rivers, the fourth overall pick in the 2004 draft, ranked fourth in the AFC with a 92.0 QB rating this year. The former North Carolina State standout finished the year with 3,388 yards passing, 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Rivers' solid play this year made the loss of Drew Brees, who left for New Orleans as a free agent in the offseason, a little bit easier to swallow. The Chargers' receiving corps is led by tight end Antonio Gates (71 receptions, 924 yards, 9 TD), who was named to his third straight All-Pro team this year. Gates is the clear-cut heir to Kansas City's Tony Gonzalez as the best tight end in football and creates overwhelming matchup problems for just about every team he faces. Tomlinson also is a menace catching balls out of the backfield, and ended this year with 56 grabs for 508 yards and three TDs. Eric Parker (48 catches, 659 yards) led the San Diego's wideouts statistically, while second-year wide receiver Vincent Jackson (27 catches, 453 yards, 6 TD) looks like a rising star. Veteran wideout Keenan McCardell (36 catches, 437 yards) is also a reliable target for Rivers.

New England's pass defense is not quite as good as the unit's ability to stop the run, but the team is very opportunistic against the opposition's aerial attack. The Patriots picked off 22 passes during the regular season to place them fourth in the NFL in that category. Leading the way for New England in the interception parade was cornerback Asante Samuel, who was tied for the NFL lead with 10 picks. Samuel (64 tackles) added another interception last week against the Jets and returned it 36 yards for a touchdown. The Patriots will once again be without strong safety Rodney Harrison (49 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), who will miss his second straight test with a sprained MCL. James Sanders is expected to start in Harrison's place. In terms of pass rushing, outside linebacker Tully Banta-Cain (43 tackles, 5.5 sacks) led the charge against New York last week, as he sacked quarterback Chad Pennington twice. Seymour, the lone Pro Bowl selection for the Pats, added the other sack for New England. Outside linebacker Rosevelt Colvin (53 tackles) led the Pats with 8 1/2 sacks in the regular season. The Patriots were 12th in the NFL in passing yards allowed, surrendering 200.2 yards through the air per game.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The special teams star for the Patriots during their world title years was kicker Adam Vinatieri, but the hero of New England playoffs past left this offseason for Indianapolis. Stephen Gostkowski was picked in the fourth round of April's draft to replace Vinatieri and did an average job in his first season as the Pats' kicker. He made 20-of-26 field goals and connected on 3-of-5 attempts from 40-plus yards. Veteran Todd Sauerbrun has assumed New England's punting duties after being signed last month and finished the regular season with a 40.8 average on 10 punts. Maroney led the team with 28 kickoff returns and was second in the NFL with an average of 28.0 yards per return. Faulk was solid with 10.6 yards per punt return.

Since his last appearance in the playoffs, Nate Kaeding has turned into one of the NFL's best kickers and even made his first Pro Bowl this season. However, back in his rookie season of 2004, Kaeding was somewhat of a goat in the playoffs, as he missed the potential game-winning 40-yard field goal in overtime. The Jets wound up winning that wild-card contest on Doug Brien's field goal. This year, Kaeding made 26-of-29 field goal attempts and was 8- of-10 from 40-plus yards. Mike Scifres had a down year as San Diego's punter and was near the bottom of the league with a 41.9 average. Turner was fourth in the NFL with a 26.5 average on 36 kickoff returns, while Parker struggled a bit as the punt returner with an 8.9 average on 37 runbacks.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

It's impossible to count Belichick's Patriots out of any playoff game, but they certainly have their work cut out for them this weekend in San Diego. The Chargers bring the league's MVP, the NFL's sack leader and a perfect 8-0 home record into this contest, and that should be enough to get them to the AFC championship game. The Pats will have to shut down Tomlinson in order to have any chance in this game, and that is something few teams have been able to do this season. And even if L.T. is stopped, the Chargers have shown they have enough confidence in Rivers to win the game. This will not be an easy test for San Diego, but the club's superior talent should get them past New England, a team that always plays better than the sum of its parts.

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Divisional Playoff Weekend Football Matchup
New England Patriots vs San Diego Chargers
Sun. January 14, 2007- Qualcomm Stadium
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