2006/07
NFL Playoffs Since our launch in 1997,
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NFL
Playoff Preview - Indianapolis (13-4) at Baltimore
(13-3)
by: MySportsbook.com
(My Sportsbook) -
M&T Bank Stadium will be filled with many
memories and emotions on Saturday when the Baltimore
Ravens host the Indianapolis Colts in the divisional
round of the AFC playoffs.
Baltimore was once home for
the Colts, who left town for Indy in the middle
of the night in March 1984. Then-owner Robert
Irsay was responsible for the move and much of
the hatred Ravens fans have for the Indianapolis
franchise. Irsay's son, Jim, took over for his
late father and will make his fourth trip back
to Baltimore, where the Colts have beaten the
Ravens just once in the three previous visits.
This will be the first-ever
meeting in the postseason between both teams,
and Baltimore fans still have images of Mayflower
moving trucks in their heads.
Irsay's team is fresh off
a 23-8 win over the Kansas City Chiefs at the
RCA Dome in last week's wild card round of the
playoffs. The AFC South-champion Colts were supposed
to have a hard time stopping Kansas City running
back Larry Johnson, but defied the odds with an
uncharacteristically stout run defense. "LJ"
was held to just 32 yards on 13 carries.
Peyton Manning didn't have
the type of game he anticipated, either, as he
passed for 268 yards with a touchdown but threw
three interceptions. Manning, who was aided by
a strong performance by rookie running back Joseph
Addai against the Chiefs, will face the NFL's
top-ranked defense on Saturday. He will be lucky
to come out on top if he repeats his performance
from a week ago.
The AFC North-champion Ravens,
who are in the playoffs for the first time since
2003, will force Indianapolis to stop their top
back, Jamal Lewis. Lewis, the cornerstone of head
coach Brian Billick's offense, will most likely
carry the ball more often this weekend than Johnson.
When he is running wild, it opens the passing
game for veteran quarterback Steve McNair.
In his first season in Baltimore,
McNair led the Ravens to a franchise-best 13 victories
in the regular season and a first-round bye in
the playoffs, winning the hearts of the Baltimore
faithful at the same time. If the Colts decide
to load the box in an attempt to stop Lewis, McNair
will take advantage of the man-to-man coverage
and pick apart Indy's defensive backfield.
SERIES HISTORY
The Colts have a 4-2 edge
in their all-time series with the Ravens, including
three straight victories. Indianapolis handed
Baltimore a 24-7 defeat at M&T Bank Stadium
in the 2005 regular-season opener and was a 20-10
home winner when the teams met in 2004. The Ravens
have won two of the three all-time matchups between
the clubs in Baltimore.
Indy coach Tony Dungy is
4-0 all-time against the Ravens, including a win
while he was at the helm of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
in 2001. Baltimore's Billick is 1-3 against Indianapolis
in his career and is 0-4 head-to- head against
Dungy.
The Colts franchise called
Baltimore home from 1953 through the 1983 season.
COLTS OFFENSE VS. RAVENS DEFENSE
Manning (4,397 passing yards,
31 TD, 9 INT) is known for struggling in big games
and owns a 4-6 career record in the postseason.
He is coming off a less than stellar performance
against Kansas City in last week's opening round,
completing 30-of-38 passes for 268 yards with
a TD pass and three interceptions, two of which
came from Chiefs cornerback Ty Law. The two-time
NFL Most Valuable Player was bailed out by the
Indy defense, though, to stay alive in his quest
for a Super Bowl title. Manning, who led the league
in touchdown passes and passer rating (101.0)
during the regular season, faces an intimidating
Baltimore defense which ended sixth against the
pass in 2006. In five career games against the
Ravens, Manning has thrown for 1,454 yards with
nine touchdown passes and three picks for a 93.7
rating. He was sacked only once last week versus
Kansas City and a mere 14 times during the regular
season. Wide receivers Marvin Harrison (95 receptions,
1,366 yards, 12 TDs) and Reggie Wayne (86 receptions,
1,310 yards, 9 TDs) were not used very often in
the win over the Chiefs, since Dungy was dedicated
to the run. Harrison, who has a touchdown catch
in three of the Colts' last four meetings with
Baltimore, caught just two passes for 48 yards
last week. Wayne added 36 yards and a score on
five receptions and owns five touchdown catches
in his last seven playoff games. Tight ends Ben
Utecht (37 receptions, 377 yards) and Dallas Clark
(30 receptions, 367 yards, 4 TD) will remain a
big factor in the game plan. Clark made a huge
impact last week, compiling 103 yards on nine
catches. Six of his grabs resulted in first downs.
Starting guard Ryan Lilja has missed the last
two games with a strained right knee and is questionable
for Saturday.
Ravens defensive coordinator
Rex Ryan implements the 4-3 defense in Baltimore
and has the bulk up front to stop Addai. Trevor
Pryce (47 tackles, 13 sacks) is a veteran end
who signed with the club in the offseason after
Denver released him to save money. He led the
Ravens in sacks and has been ecstatic playing
for a winner. Pryce has also been instrumental
in the locker and in the development of nose guard
Kelly Gregg (61 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and rookie
tackle Haloti Ngata (31 tackles, 1 sack). The
trio is a big reason why Baltimore is ranked No.
1 overall in team defense, although the unit will
face a challenging test from Indy's top-ranked
offense. Ryan's Ravens have allowed 201 points,
lowest in the league this year and only 36 more
than the team's record-setting defense of 2000.
Baltimore's defense also permitted just 264.1
yards per game, gave up an NFL-low 236 first downs
and also registered 28 interceptions in 2006,
thanks to starting cornerbacks Chris McAlister
(47 tackles, 6 INT) and Samari Rolle (52 tackles,
3 INT, 1 sack). McAlister leads the team in picks
and is headed to his third Pro Bowl. Both corners,
along with All-Pro free safety Ed Reed (59 tackles,
5 INT) and rookie strong safety Dawan Landry (69
tackles, 5 INT, 3 sacks), will be responsible
for shutting down both Harrison and Wayne on Saturday.
Dungy beat the Chiefs at
their own game last week and ran Addai all over
their defense. Addai (1,081 rushing yards, 7 TD)
is no Larry Johnson, but his numbers were quite
similar to a typical LJ game, as he recorded 122
yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. Addai, who
led all NFL rookies in rushing and yards per carry,
will have a tough task penetrating Baltimore's
second-ranked rushing defense. When he needs a
breather, veteran back Dominic Rhodes (641 rushing
yards, 5 TD) will get the call. Rhodes, who was
the starter for most of the 2006 season, ran for
42 yards on 16 carries in his only career appearance
against the Ravens. The two backs have helped
Indianapolis fans forget about departed crowd
favorite Edgerrin James and given the Colts the
league's 18th-ranked rushing offense (110.1 ypg).
Ryan will have his front
line ready for Addai, but team leader Ray Lewis
will make sure the linebackers hit anything that
moves. Lewis and some of his teammates have been
vocal during the week on how they intend to punish
Addai and any other player who ends up beyond
the first line of defense. Lewis (105 tackles,
5 sacks, 2 INT) and emerging outside linebacker
Bart Scott (103 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 2 INTs) will
also pressure Manning all day. Manning has a quick
release and is very poised in the pocket, making
the job more difficult for Baltimore, which finished
second in the NFL with 60 sacks. Scott and Lewis
were tops on the team in tackles, while outside
linebacker Adalius Thomas (83 tackles, 11 sacks,
1 INT) and end Terrell Suggs (64 tackles, 9.5
sacks) were among the team leaders in sacks. Thomas
is headed to the Pro Bowl, while the versatile
Suggs adds to a corps which can cover, blitz and
shed blockers with more ease than most athletes
in the NFL. Thomas is hampered with an ankle problem,
but is listed as probable. Addai must make sure
he wears extra protection, because any one of
the Baltimore linebackers can take him out of
the game with a crushing hit.
RAVENS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE
McNair (3.050 yards, 16 TD,
12 INT), who shared the 2003 Most Valuable Player
Award with Manning, led the Ravens to the playoffs
in his first season with the team and helped the
Ravens win a franchise-best 13 regular-season
games with his grit and hard work. In 1999, McNair
led the Tennessee Titans to a 19-16 win over Indianapolis
in an AFC Divisional Playoff game in the RCA Dome.
The veteran quarterback also guided the team to
wins in nine of its last 10 games and owns a 92.9
rating with 11 touchdown passes and five interceptions
over that span. He has thrown a touchdown pass
in four straight playoff games and will most likely
add to that total on Saturday. Mark Clayton (67
receptions, 939 yards, 5 TD) emerged as Baltimore's
go-to receiver after the midway point of the season,
while Todd Heap (73 receptions, 765 yards, 6 TD)
is one of the most sure-handed tight ends in the
league. Veteran Derrick Mason (68 receptions,
750 yards, 2 TD), Heap and Clayton are just one
of two trios in the NFL to finish with 65 receptions
apiece. If the Colts focus too much attention
on stopping Lewis, McNair will have the space
to find his open receivers. But he must be aware
that Indy owns the second-best pass defense in
the NFL. McNair was sacked only 14 times during
the regular season and is expected to have All-Pro
tackle Jonathan Ogden back in the lineup. Ogden,
a future Hall of Famer, missed the regular-season
finale against Buffalo with turf toe and is listed
as questionable.
Colts defensive end Dwight
Freeney (29 tackles, 5.5 sacks) faces the daunting
task of going up against Ogden. Last season's
sack master, Freeney's numbers have been down
this season because of shoulder and leg problems,
but he flashed his usual Pro Bowl form in the
Kansas City win. Freeney had three tackles, two
sacks and forced a fumble to lead the often-criticized
Colts' defense. Robert Mathis (65 tackles, 9.5
sacks) plays on the opposite end of Freeney and
will also be in hot pursuit of McNair, who still
has the ability to escape the rush. McNair will
air it out against the second-best pass defense
in the NFL, although Colts safety Bob Sanders
(27 tackles, 1 INT) is questionable with a knee
problem that has hampered him all season. If Sanders
plays on Saturday, it will mark the first time
since September he has competed in consecutive
games. Starting cornerback Nick Harper (75 tackles,
3 INT) is nursing a sore ankle but should is expected
to be ready to take on Heap, Mason and Clayton.
Lewis (1,132 rushing yards,
9 TD) will try to expose the Colts' run defense
and accomplish what the Chiefs' Johnson couldn't
last week. Indy ranked last against the run during
the regular season, having allowed an average
of 173 yards a game. Lewis only had a pair of
100-yard rushing games this season, however, and
didn't have such a great performance in his last
meeting against Indy in 2005. He ran for 48 yards
on 16 carries in the 24-7 loss. Baltimore is 3-0
in postseason play when Lewis cracks the century
mark. Dungy will most likely devise a similar
game plan from a week ago to stop the powerful
back. Billick is a smart man, however, and is
not afraid to attack Baltimore's suspect front
seven with his top runner. He will use Lewis enough
to keep Manning and the Colts' high-powered offense
off the field. Veteran backup Mike Anderson (183
rushing yards, 1 TD) will see limited time, but
the former Denver Bronco is very familiar with
a postseason atmosphere.
Indianapolis didn't
look like the NFL's worst run defense last Saturday,
as the unit held Johnson to only 32 yards on 13
touches. Defensive tackles Raheem Brock (47 tackles,
3 sacks) and Anthony McFarland (41 tackles, 2.5
sacks), who combined for seven stops against Kansas
City, will get a first- hand look Lewis, who brings
just as much grit, weight and muscle to the football
field as Johnson. If Lewis has his way with the
Indianapolis defense, Manning and the offense
will be kept off the field, making it even more
difficult for the Colts to escape with a win on
the road. Behind the Colts' front line of defense
are talented linebackers Cato June (142 tackles,
1 sack, 3 INT), Gary Brackett (120 tackles) and
Rob Morris (55 tackles). June led the team in
tackles and recorded seven last weekend.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri
(25-28 FG) kicked three field goals last week
to help boot the Chiefs from the RCA Dome. The
veteran and playoff-tested Vinatieri is a perfect
12-for-12 in field goal attempts at home, but
finished 13-of-16 on the road this season. He
was the sixth-most accurate kicker in the 2006
regular season and has made 29 field goals in
the playoffs, the second- most in NFL history
behind Gary Anderson. Punter Hunter Smith (44.4
avg.) only had to punt twice against the Chiefs,
booming a pair of balls for a 38 yard average.
He even pinned one punt inside the 20-yard line.
Field position will be a huge factor on Saturday
because of the two solid offenses, and Colts'
return man Terrence Wilkins (9.2 punt return avg.,
1 TD, 24.5 kick return avg.) is a threat to break
one. Wilkins fielded three punts for 28 yards,
including a pair of fair catches, last week.
Ravens veteran kicker Matt
Stover (28-30 FG) made 17 of his 18 field goals
at home this season, and could be trying a few
more if the game turns into a defensive battle.
Rookie punter Sam Koch, who finished tied for
second in the NFL with 12 punts inside the 10-yard
line, punted 86 times for an average of 43 yards
a boot. The return game suffered a big blow when
B.J. Sams (10.6 punt return avg., 25.7 kick return
avg.) went down in Week 13 against Cincinnati
with a broken leg. Cory Ross (2.8 punt return
avg., 21.6 kick return avg.) then took over as
Baltimore's return man and has done an admirable
job.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
It has been a while since
the NFL's top-ranked offense took on the league's
best defense in the divisional round of the conference
playoffs. Manning has a lot to prove on Saturday,
as he is just 1-4 as a starter on the road in
the postseason. In order to achieve Super Bowl
immortality, Manning and the Colts must establish
the run game early before Baltimore forces them
to be one- dimensional. Addai cracked the century
mark against Kansas City and kept Indy in the
game after Manning was intercepted three times.
There will be no chance for an Indianapolis win
this week if Manning even turns the ball over
twice, however. Addai hasn't faced the Ravens
yet, which could be an advantage, but the Baltimore
linebackers will certainly do their best to stop
the first-year phenom. McNair willed his team
to a pair of come-from-behind regular-season wins
during his first stint in Baltimore and has put
up decent numbers throughout his career against
the Colts. Despite the fact both head coaches
are familiar with each other, having previously
worked together in Minnesota, the Colts have the
advantage and momentum on their side. Manning
is more determined than ever to reach the Super
Bowl this year, and doesn't have kicker Mike Vanderjagt
to blame if things go wrong.
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