Hard to imagine that
Miami just won the NBA title a month ago, and
baseball is knee deep in pennant races and we
have football less than a week away already.
After a year in 2005 that saw numerous favorites
cover with big numbers in the NFL, week in and
week out, and offshore books and Vegas books
losing to the public, it all starts over again
with the opening game in the NFL preseason with
Oakland and Philly kicking if off August 6th.
My take on the NFL preseason
has always been guarded optimism. I have sat
at many round table with other big named handicappers
discussing the pros and cons of the preseason,
some of us love it, and some of us avoid it.
I am in the middle on the issue, but DO realize
the potential for profit is there, but your
discipline in doing your homework, and knowing
the tendencies of particular coaches heading
into the preseason, based on the performance
of his squad in the previous year has to be
taken into account.
Lets take a look at 2 factors
that make up a great deal of emphasis I put
on handicapping the NFL preseason that have
proven profitable over the test of time as part
of the equation of handicapping the NFL in August.
The number one thing I look for is Quarterback
depth, and playing rotations, bar none. Here
are a few of the teams I have looked at for
2006 and red flagged, that have the ability
to score points in meaningless preseason games
that give them an edge in any contest, based
on talent at the helm. These are listed in no
particular order other than to say in my mind
that the Eagles have a solid rotation of talented
and capable guys and should fare well in the
preseason in the early games.
Preseason
Wagering Tips - Chicago Bears - With
a healthy Rex Grossman, he will get plenty of
playing time in the preseason, and with a solid
1-2 punch at back-up here with Kyle Orton and
Brian Gresie, both with starting experience,
and they way Chicago plays defense in general,
look for the Bears to be formidable in the preseason
with this rotation in any form.
Preseason
Wagering Tips - New York Jets - With
Chad Pennington slated to play, but not much
in the preseason, look for ex-Redskin and capable
Pat Ramsey and Brooks Bollinger to see plenty
of action behind a deep offensive line. The
Jets should be able to put up some points with
deep RB positions as well.
Preseason
Wagering Tips - Philadelphia Eagles -
With Donovan McNabb, Jeff Garcia and Koy Dettmer,
you have a very strong and experienced starting
3 rotation here, I would not be surprised to
see ex-Hawaii star Tommy Chang make some unusual
plays in the preseason either, and Philly also
has a stable of RB's that are deep.
Preseason
Wagering Tips - Tampa Bay - Jon Gruden
loves to win anytime he is coaching, but his
QB rotation is solid this year with 3 guys all
having starting NFL experience. Chris Simms
will get plenty of snaps, Jay Fiedler and Tim
Rattay also will see considerable playing time
this preseason as well. All are capable enough
of making some big plays, and Rattay may see
allot of action behind a 2nd string line that
still will be better than any OL he had at San
Fran.
Preseason
Wagering Tips - St. Louis Rams - Look
for a strong rotation with a deep WR unit here
with Marc Bulger, Jeff Smoker and Gus Frerotte
in an established system that is wide open and
not conservative in any way, and the Rams will
put up points, so the totals on the over may
come into play depending on who they are playing
as well.
Secondly, you look for
coaches who like to win in the preseason, or
coaches who are new that want to instill a winning
attitude up front with their team. Dennis
Green for Arizona comes to mind as he
is building an offense and has a running back
in James form the Colts this year as he looks
to improve the Cards offensive output, as well
as QB Matt Leinart from USC, who will get some
serious playing time. This team has the potential
with their WR's to put up some serious numbers
in 2006, and I think it might start in the preseason.
Green is a stellar 6-1 SU as the Cards coach
in the preseason and over 62% SU lifetime as
an NFL head coach.
Guys
like John Fox for the Panthers, Jon Gruden for
the Buc's, and Jack Del Rio for the Jags, Dennis
Green as mentioned, and Lovie Smith for the
Bears are guys to bet on the preseason
as far as emphasizing wins and playing tough
defense throughout the game. New coaches to
the NFL in the head position are looking for
team chemistry and starting rotations and unless
I know something from a local sportswriter as
far as a gameplan that is not public, I tend
to stay away from them.
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Teams
that are weak in depth at QB like Houston, Dallas,
Cincinnati, Baltimore, Miami, and the Colts
to name a few, will not play their star
player more than 2 quarters until the final
pre-season game in a dress rehearsal before
their first game. Look for Atlanta to also shelf
Mike Vick for the most part until the latter
stages of the preseason as well. Many times
coaches play for the final game with most their
starters in tact and look for a win going into
the regular season the following week. The
Colts are 3-1 ATS the last 4 years and Denver
is 6-1 ATS their last 7 years in their final
games.
All in all, pick and choose
your spots wisely with handicapping advise that
is sound and experienced. Over my 15 years of
capping the preseason, I limit my plays to sound
fundamental handicapping methods that have proven
a profit, and while my plays are limited to
7 or 8 games in August and early September,
before the regular season begins, I find more
profit by using the methods and trends explained
in this article and a few other secrets that
prove that less is more, and there is profit
in the NFL preseason.
More NFL Preseason
Wagering Tips
Preseason
Betting Tips
2006
NFL Preseason Betting By Steve Merril
Betting
On Football
NFL
Preseason Gambling
Tony
George Preseason Notes
Rocky
Atkinson - How to Make $ On NFL Preseason
Tony George is a documented member of The Professional
Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here.
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