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Jets vs Patriots Preview

2006/07 NFL Playoffs
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NFL Playoff Preview - N.Y. Jets (10-6) at New England patriots (12-4)
by: MySportsbook.com

(My Sportsbook) - The New England Patriots and New York Jets will renew acquaintances for the third time this season on Sunday afternoon, when the two longtime AFC East combatants face off at Gillette Stadium.

Appropriately enough, the loser of the Jets/Patriots rubber match, which also happens to be an AFC Wild Card tilt, is going to get bounced.

New England went to the Meadowlands in Week 2, holding off a late Jets rally to win, 24-17. That game marked the first installment in the frosty rivalry between Jets head coach Eric Mangini and his former mentor, Patriots head man Bill Belichick. Following that New England victory, the pair exchanged a half- hearted handshake at midfield.

Mangini and company avenged their previous defeat in Week 10, traveling to Gillette and taking down the Patriots, 17-14, to end a seven-game losing streak in the series. Again, the coaches shared a brief and less-than-warm greeting following that contest.

And now comes Sunday's affair, a game in which sideline tensions don't figure to be ratcheted down given the importance of the contest.

The Patriots secured their fifth AFC East title in six years in 2006, winning five of their final six games following the Jets loss. The quality of the AFC, however, meant that the team's 12-4 record was good for only the No. 4 seed.

Just one rung below New England on the postseason ladder are the fifth-seeded Jets (10-6), who are back in the playoffs one year after finishing at a dismal 4-12. Should he win on Sunday, the 35-year-old Mangini will become the third- youngest coach to win an NFL playoff game, behind only the Raiders' John Madden (33) and Redskins' Ray Flaherty (34).

Though for Mangini to succeed, he will have to break New England's recent run of postseason achievement in its own building.

The Patriots are 5-0 in playoff home games during the Belichick era, and are 8-0 in postseason home tilts since last losing such a game at Foxboro in 1978. Mangini served as an assistant with New England from 2000 through 2005, and was part of each of Belichick's five home postseason victories.

SERIES HISTORY

The Patriots and Jets have met just once in the postseason, a 26-14 road victory for New England in a 1985 AFC First-Round Playoff. New England went on to defeat the Raiders and Dolphins on the road that year, prior to a loss to the Bears in Super Bowl XX.

The Jets hold a 48-44-1 edge in the all-time regular season series with the Patriots, and broke a seven game losing skid to their longtime AFC East rival with a 17-14 road victory in Week 10. New England was a 24-17 road winner against the Jets in Week 2, and swept home-and-homes with the Jets in 2003, 2004, and 2005.

Belichick has a career mark of 10-6 against the Jets, including 9-5 while with New England. The Jets' Mangini is 1-1 against both his former mentor Belichick and his ex-employer New England.

JETS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE

After a pair of rotator cuff surgeries seemingly placed his playing career in serious jeopardy, Jets quarterback Chad Pennington (3352 passing yards, 17 TD, 16 INT) was on Thursday named NFL Comeback Player of the Year for 2006. Pennington defied the odds by starting every game for the first time in his seven-year career, establishing personal career-highs in completions (313), attempts (485), and yards. From a negative standpoint, Pennington's 16 interceptions were also a career-high. The Marshall product, who is 2-2 in his postseason career, threw for 474 yards with three touchdown passes and two interceptions in two meetings with New England this season. Wideouts Laveranues Coles (91 receptions, 6 TD), Jerricho Cotchery (82 receptions, 6 TD), and tight end Chris Baker (31 receptions, 4 TD) have been Pennington's top targets this season. Coles had five 100-yard games during the regular season, including one against New England in Week 2, while Cotchery totaled 12 catches for 191 yards and two TDs in his two meetings with the Patriots this season. The Jets line has allowed 34 sacks on the year, five of which came in the two meetings with New England.

The Patriots secondary will be without its leader this week, as safety Rodney Harrison has been ruled out with a sprained MCL suffered in last week's win over the Titans. James Sanders (44 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT), who started six games when Harrison was nursing a broken shoulder, is likely to be back in the starting lineup. Matching up with Coles and Cotchery will be cornerbacks Asante Samuel (64 tackles, 10 INT) and Ellis Hobbs (44 tackles, 2 INT), who combined for 12 of the secondary's 17 interceptions this season. Samuel was tied for the NFL lead in picks during the regular season along with the Broncos' Champ Bailey. Safety Artrell Hawkins (71 tackles, 1 INT), who has started 12 games at safety for New England this season, had an INT in the most recent meeting with the Jets. Seeking to apply pressure to Pennington off the edge will be outside linebackers Roosevelt Colvin (53 tackles, 8.5 sacks) and Tully Banta-Cain (43 tackles, 5.5 sacks), both of whom can boast a sack of the Jets' quarterback this year. Colvin, end Ty Warren (7.5 sacks), and situational pass rusher Jarvis Green (7.5 sacks) were New England's leaders in sacks during the regular season. New England gave up just 10 touchdown passes in 2006, the fewest in the league.

The Jets' rushing offense ranked just 20th in the league (108.6 yards per game) during the regular season, though leading rusher and rookie Leon Washington (650 rushing yards, 4 TD, 25 receptions), second-half stalwart Cedric Houston (374 rushing yards, 5 TD), and veteran Kevan Barlow (370 rushing yards, 6 TD) all had their moments. The multi-talented Washington had over 1,000 all-purpose yards during his first year in the league, though he had double-digit carries just once over the Jets' final six games and was not a factor in either meeting with New England. Houston, who had 99 of his 113 carries over the final seven weeks of the season, did not appear in either game against the Patriots. Barlow had a season-high 17 carries for 75 yards with a touchdown versus New England in Week 10, but has just 43 rushing yards since that Nov. 12th meeting. In other words, the New England defense has little idea of which running back to gameplan for heading into this contest.

Whoever does the running for the Jets will be going up against a New England defense that ranked 5th in NFL rushing defense (94.2 yards per game) during the regular season. The Patriots' three-man line has been led by ends Richard Seymour (40 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT) and Warren (84 tackles), and could get nose tackle Vince Wilfork (50 tackles, 1 sack) back this week as well. Wilfork, who has missed the last three games with an ankle injury, is questionable for Sunday. Mike Wright (32 tackles, 1 sack) will start if Wilfork is again unavailable. Seeking to make plays behind their linemen will be inside linebackers Tedy Bruschi (112 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Mike Vrabel (89 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 3 INT), who were 1-2 on the team in tackles during the regular campaign. Bruschi had a season-high 16 stops against the Jets in Week 10.

PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. JETS DEFENSE

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (3529 passing yards, 24 TD, 12 INT) will place his 10-1 career postseason record on the line on Sunday afternoon, a mark that includes a 5-0 record in home games. Brady has at least one touchdown pass in nine consecutive playoff outings, and has thrown only five interceptions in his entire postseason career. Brady has two career 300-yard games in the playoffs, most recently in a loss to the Broncos last January, but has never eclipsed the 300-yard plateau in 12 career meetings with the Jets. Eleven different Patriots caught touchdown passes in 2006, with wideouts Troy Brown (43 receptions) and Reche Caldwell (61 receptions) leading the way with four each. Caldwell led New England in catches and receiving yards during the regular campaign. Tight end Ben Watson (49 receptions, 3 TD) has missed the last three games with a knee problem, and is listed as questionable for this week. Veteran Daniel Graham (21 receptions, 2 TD) would likely start if Watson is unavailable. The New England line surrendered a modest 29 sacks during the regular season.

The Jets were middle-of-the-NFL-pack in both passing defense (201.4 yards per game) and sacks (35) during the regular season, but made enough plays in both the secondary and pass rush to keep New York above the fray. Strong safety Kerry Rhodes (98 tackles, 5 sacks, 4 INT) has been the team's most consistent defender, and cornerbacks Andre Dyson (62 tackles, 4 INT) and David Barrett (33 tackles, 3 INT) did a credible job as well. Safety Erik Coleman (101 tackles) had just one interception all year, but it came against Brady in Week 10. Defensive ends Shaun Ellis (58 tackles, 5 sacks) and Bryan Thomas (77 tackles, 8.5 sacks) each had a sack of Brady in the last meeting with New England. Thomas and outside linebacker Victor Hobson (100 tackles, 6 sacks, 1 INT) were 1-2 on the Jets in sacks during the regular season.

New England running backs Corey Dillon (812 rushing yards, 13 TD, 15 receptions) and Laurence Maroney (745 rushing yards, 22 receptions, 7 TD) both proved difficult for the Jets to contain this year, combining for 145 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 36 carries when the teams met in Week 2, and going for 135 on 23 totes (5.9 yards per rush) in Week 10. Dillon's 98 yards on 11 carries against the Jets in the latter matchup were a season-high. The third notable member of the Patriots backfield, third-down man Kevin Faulk (123 rushing yards, 43 receptions, 4 TD), missed last week's win over Tennessee with a knee injury and is questionable for Sunday. As a whole, New England was 12th in the NFL in rushing during the regular season (123.1 yards per game).

Though their defense has largely avoided the big running play this year, the Jets have had their problems against the rush in 2006. New York ranked just 24th in NFL rushing defense (130.2 yards per game) during the regular season, and were 27th in yards allowed per carry (4.6). Counted on to provide a presence at the point of attack on Sunday will be interior linemen Dewayne Robertson (61 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Kimo von Oelhoffen (28 tackles, 1 sack), both of whom were 16-game starters for the Jets in the trenches. Linebackers Jonathan Vilma (113 tackles, 1 INT) and Eric Barton (101 tackles, 4.5 sacks) were 1-2 on the team in stops in '06, and one of Barton's three double-digit tackles games on the year came against New England in Week 2.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Jets kicker Mike Nugent (24-27 FG) was reliable on field goals in his second season on the job, though his two touchbacks were the fewest in the league for a regular kickoff man. Punter Ben Graham (44.2 avg.) was top-10 in the league in net average (37.8), and only 28 of his 72 punts on the year were returned. The Jets special-teamer that made the biggest impact, however, was kickoff returner Justin Miller (28.3 avg.), who was named to the Pro Bowl after bringing back two kicks for touchdowns. Washington (7.5 avg.) has been less effective on punt returns.

Rookie Stephen Gostkowski (20-26 FG) has been hot-and-cold as the Patriots' field goal man this year, but his 12 touchbacks on kickoffs have been valuable. Todd Sauerbrun has averaged 40.8 yards per boot in his two games as New England's punter. Kevin Faulk (10.6 avg.) returned punts for the majority of the regular season, but his questionable status means rookie Chad Jackson could be pressed into those duties. Jackson had punt returns of 39 and 26 yards against the Titans last week. Ellis Hobbs (36.0 avg., 1 TD) returned kickoffs last Sunday, but Maroney (28.0 avg.) is capable of handling that area as well. Hobbs had a 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown against Houston in Week 15.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Nice job, Eric Mangini and Chad Pennington, but your road ends here. Logic suggests that the Jets' final six games, which came against teams with a collective final record of 35-61 (.365), didn't quite prime them for Tom Brady, Richard Seymour, and Tedy Bruschi. It is extraordinarily difficult to envision the Jets' offense moving the ball, or the defense accounting for Brady and his weaponry. If this isn't the most one-sided game of the 2006 postseason, we'll be surprised.

Jets vs Patriots Preview
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