Chiefs vs Colts Preview

(My Sportsbook) - The 2006 NFL Playoffs will kick off on Saturday afternoon with a battle between the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs, two franchises synonymous with postseason heartbreak.

The Colts are making their fifth straight postseason appearance, the longest current streak in the league, but are still searching for their first Super Bowl appearance since leaving Baltimore in 1983. Peyton Manning and Indy advanced as far as the AFC Championship in 2003, but have been knocked out in the Divisional Playoff round in each of the past two seasons. Last year, Indianapolis squandered the top seed in the AFC by falling at home to eventual Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh, 21-18.

The Colts (12-4) enter January as the conference's No. 3 seed, though Indianapolis' play dropped off following a 9-0 start to 2006. Tony Dungy's club went 3-4 in its final seven contests, with all four losses coming on the road, and suffered from much-publicized struggles on defense.

That said, Indy was one of the NFL's most dominant home teams in '06, joining the Chargers as the only club to win each of its games played within friendly confines.

Kansas City, meanwhile, is simply looking for a taste of success in the postseason. The Chiefs are 0-4 in playoff games since last competing for the AFC Championship in 1993, and only the Cincinnati Bengals (1990) and Detroit Lions (1991) have endured a longer stretch without a postseason triumph. The franchise went 13-3 and earned the No. 2 seed when it last reached the playoffs in 2003, but was knocked out by the Colts (38-31) at home in what marked Kansas City's only postseason game in an eight-year stretch (1997-2005).

The sixth-seeded Chiefs (9-7) are the league's least likely playoff entry, having won their final two games and benefited from collapses from the Bengals, Broncos, Jaguars, and Titans in order to reach the postseason in head coach Herm Edwards' first year on the job.

Edwards is the first coach in the organization's 47-year history to lead the Chiefs to the playoffs in his initial season.

SERIES HISTORY

Indy has won both postseason tilts with Kansas City, claiming the aforementioned 2003 AFC Divisional Playoff (38-31) at Arrowhead Stadium and a 1995 AFC Divisional Playoff in its home stadium (10-7).

The Colts also hold a 8-7 lead in their all-time regular season series with Kansas City, and had won five in a row prior to a 45-35 home win for the Chiefs in Week 8 of the 2004 campaign. K.C. is 0-2 in Indianapolis all-time. and hasn't won a road game of any kind in the series since a triumph in Baltimore in 1980.

Dungy has a career record of 2-1 against the Chiefs, including playoffs. Kansas City's Edwards is 2-2 all-time against the Colts, with all of the matchups dating back to his tenure with the Jets (2001-05).

Edwards, who was assistant head coach and defensive backs coach under Dungy in Tampa Bay from 1996 through 2000, is 1-1 head-to-head against his former mentor. That total includes a 41-0 rout for Edwards' Jets in a 2002 AFC First- Round Playoff.

CHIEFS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE

There may never have been a more obvious game plan than the one the Kansas City Chiefs' offense is set to employ on Saturday. Against the Colts' bottom- ranked run defense, Chiefs running back Larry Johnson (1781 rushing yards, 41 receptions, 19 TD) can expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 carries. That won't be much of a switch for the two-time Pro Bowler, who last week established an NFL single-season record for rushing attempts with 416. Johnson finished up the regular campaign with a 33-carry, 138-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Jaguars, his team record-11th 100-yard game of 2006 and sixth contest of the year with 30 carries or more. The 2003 first-round pick was inactive when the Chiefs faced the Colts in the '03 postseason, and had a single carry for 19 yards when the teams met in the 2004 regular season. Michael Bennett (200 rushing yards, 9 receptions) is available to spell Johnson. Kansas City was ninth in NFL rushing offense (132.9 yards per game) during the regular season.

The Colts' run defense was historically bad in 2006, surrendering 173 ground yards per contest and 5.33 per rush. No NFL team had allowed that many yards per carry since the 1961 Minnesota Vikings gave up 5.41 yards per tote in their first year of existence. Indy was more than 27 yards per game worse than the 31st-ranked run defense of the St. Louis Rams, and allowed more than 100 rushing yards in all 16 of its contests. The only minor cause for optimism this week is the expected return of hard-hitting strong safety Bob Sanders (27 tackles, 1 INT), who was limited to just four games this year due to a lingering knee injury. Sanders will have to help out a beleaguered front seven that includes tackles Anthony McFarland (33 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Raheem Brock (47 tackles, 3 sacks) on the interior line, and linebackers Cato June (142 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT), Gary Brackett (120 tackles), and Rob Morris (55 tackles) in the next line of defense. June led the team in stops from his place on the weak side, and middle man Brackett ranked second on the team in tackles.

Kansas City enters the playoffs amid a full-fledged quarterback controversy. Starter Trent Green (1342 passing yards, 7 TD, 9 INT) was booed lustily during a three-turnover performance against the Jaguars last week, a game that continued a streak of less-than-impressive outings for the veteran. Backup Damon Huard (1878 passing yards, 11 TD, 1 INT) subbed in for Green briefly in the third quarter, engineering a touchdown drive while Green was having an ankle checked by trainers. Huard was 5-3 as a starter when Green was sidelined with a severe concussion earlier this season, and Edwards indicated that he would be willing to make a QB switch if Green struggles early. The 36-year-old Green is 0-1 as a playoff starter, while the 33-year-old Huard's only postseason experience came in mop-up time with the Dolphins in 1998 and 1999. As for targets, the quarterbacks will have wideouts Eddie Kennison (53 receptions, 5 TD) and Samie Parker (41 receptions, 1 TD) in tow along with tight end Tony Gonzalez (73 receptions, 5 TD). The Pro Bowler Gonzalez has only seven catches in his postseason career, which consists of a mere two games, but went for eight grabs for 125 yards and two touchdowns when he last faced Indianapolis in 2004. The K.C. line allowed 41 sacks on the year, tied for the 11th-highest figure in the NFL.

Indianapolis finished the regular season ranked second in the NFL against the pass (159.2 yards per game), though that number was due in large part to the fact that opponents were able to run at will against the Colts. Indy faced just 415 pass attempts all year, fewer than every league team save the 2-14 Oakland Raiders. Perhaps more telling were the team's ranks in opponents' completion percentage (64.1, third-highest in the NFL) and sacks (25, tied for second-fewest). Undersized ends Dwight Freeney (29 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and Robert Mathis (65 tackles, 9.5 sacks) were not the disruptive forces they previously had been, with the ex-Pro Bowler Freeney breaking through to the quarterback in just four of 16 games. The secondary managed 11 interceptions, with cornerbacks Nick Harper (75 tackles, 3 INT) and Jason David (55 tackles, 2 INT) combining on five of those. The most consistent performer in the secondary may have been rookie safety Antoine Bethea (90 tackles, 1 INT), who was third on the team in tackles on the year.

COLTS OFFENSE VS. CHIEFS DEFENSE

Attempting to take a small step towards dismissing doubts about his abilities in big games will be Manning (4397 passing yards, 31 TD, 9 INT), who is on pace to own most of the NFL's most notable records for quarterbacks but has just a 4-8 postseason record in his career. The nine-year-pro led the league in touchdown passes and passer rating (101.0) during the regular season, while his nine interceptions were a career-low. In his last game against the Chiefs, on Halloween 2004, Manning completed 25-of-44 passes for a career-high 472 yards with five touchdowns and an interception in a losing effort. Top wideouts Marvin Harrison (95 receptions, 12 TD) and Reggie Wayne (86 receptions, 9 TD) had 119 yards and two TDs each in that defeat. Harrison and Wayne combined for eleven 100-yard games this season, and Harrison has six touchdowns in his past three outings. Tight ends Ben Utecht (37 receptions) and Dallas Clark (30 receptions, 4 TD) will also be a major factor in the game plan. Clark returned to the lineup last week, catching four passes for 56 yards after missing four games with a knee injury. The Indianapolis line allowed a league-low 15 sacks on the year.

Kansas City was a middle-of-the-pack 18th in the league against the pass (208.4 yards per game) during the regular season, but the Chiefs secondary is full of veterans that can boast familiarity with Manning's work, if nothing else. Cornerbacks Patrick Surtain (66 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Ty Law (65 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack) both have extensive experience against Manning and the Indy receivers, dating back to the time when all were participating in the AFC East. While with the Patriots in 2003, Law had three interceptions of Manning in the AFC Championship. Safeties Sammy Knight (82 tackles, 2 sacks) and Greg Wesley (67 tackles, 3 INT) have also seen Manning, with the then-Saint Knight picking off the quarterback in a 2001 regular season win for New Orleans. The Chiefs were in the bottom half of the league in sacks with 32 in 2006, though ends Jared Allen (77 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Tamba Hali (57 tackles, 8s sacks, 1 INT) both had their moments, as did outside linebacker Derrick Johnson (75 tackles, 4.5 sacks). That trio figures to struggle to put heat on the quick-acting Manning, however.

Though most of its attention will be devoted to Manning and his receivers, the Chiefs defense will have to keep an eye on Indianapolis' underrated running game as well. Running backs Joseph Addai (1081 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 8 TD) and Dominic Rhodes (641 rushing yards, 5 TD, 36 receptions) capably filled the void left by the departed Edgerrin James, combining for over 1,700 yards and heading a ground game that ranked a respectable 18th in the league (110.1 yards per game). The rookie Addai posted a pair of 100-yard games on the year, including a 24-carry, 171-yard, four-touchdown effort against the playoff-bound Eagles in Week 12. Rhodes' only career postseason touchdown came in Indy's most recent playoff win, a 49-24 triumph over the Broncos in '04.

The Chiefs have shown some vulnerability against the run this year, with Pittsburgh's 219-yard ground assault in Week 6 and LaDainian Tomlinson's 199- yard effort for the Chargers in Week 15 serving as exhibits A and B. The Kansas City linebacking corps of Kawika Mitchell (104 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) in the middle and Derrick Johnson and Kendrell Bell (49 tackles, 1 sack) on the outside has been active for most of the season, but defensive tackle tandem James Reed (37 tackles, 1 sack) and Ron Edwards (20 tackles, 2.5 sacks) has been hot-and-cold at the point of attack. Mitchell, who led Kansas City in tackles during the regular season, had three double-digit stops performances during the campaign. Kansas City was 18th in rushing yardage allowed (120.5 yards per game) in '06.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Still returning kicks for the Chiefs is Dante Hall (8.9 punt return avg., 1 TD, 22.8 kickoff return avg.), who had a 92-yard kickoff return for a touchdown against Indianapolis in the 2003 playoffs. Hall's only return for a score this year came against San Francisco in Week 6, when he brought back a punt 60 yards to paydirt. Kicker Lawrence Tynes (24-of-31 FG) was mostly reliable, hitting on 9-of-14 field goals from 40 yards or longer, though only five of his 78 kickoffs went for touchbacks. Punter Dustin Colquitt (44.3 avg.) led the NFL in net average (39.3) during the regular season. The Colts will also have to be on the lookout for special teams ace Bernard Pollard (10 tackles), who had a key blocked punt return for a touchdown in last Sunday's win over the Jaguars.

Indianapolis kicker Adam Vinatieri (25-28 FG) will suit up for his first postseason contest as a Colt, after appearing in 17 playoff games as a member of the Patriots between 1996 and 2005. Vinatieri was the NFL's sixth-most accurate kicker in 2006, though opponents averaged 25.3 yards per return on Vinatieri's kickoffs, which was near the bottom of the league. Punter Hunter Smith (44.4 avg.) was reliable as usual. Terrence Wilkins (9.2 punt return avg., 1 TD, 24.5 kickoff return avg.) was solid on returns, with his big play coming in the form of an 82-yard punt return for a score against the Jaguars in Week 3.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The main focus entering this game will be the Colts' ability to stop Larry Johnson and the Chiefs' ability to limit the effectiveness of Manning. Will either defense do either consistently? Don't bet on it. A 100-yard rushing day is on tap for Johnson, and Manning looks pretty well set for 250-plus yards and at least three touchdowns. In an evenly-matched game, this one is likely to hinge on who wins the turnover battle, and there is reason to believe that team will be Indianapolis. Don't count on Manning making any major mistakes in this one, especially at home, where he has clearly been more comfortable this year (18 TDs, 2 INT). Look for the future Hall-of-Famer to engineer a pivotal fourth-quarter touchdown drive, getting Vinatieri close enough to win another playoff game on the strength of his right leg.

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