NFL Best And Worst Favorites

Baltimore (19-10-1) - Hats off to the Ravens, who managed to sport 4-3 ATS (against the spread) mark as favorites, despite last year’s bumbling 6-10 SU (straight up) campaign. Note that Baltimore actually has been a big-time cash cow as the chalk, dating all the way back to the 2000 Super Bowl-winning season. Since the start of that campaign, this AFC North club is a composite 39-22-3 versus the vig (a 64 percent winning rate), and that’s right around the near 66 percent posted since the start of ‘03.

Carolina (12-21) - The Panthers, you’ll recall, were the NFL’s best dog team in our list, but John Fox’s crew now finds itself as a major negative when laying juice. Carolina’s 18-3 ATS record as a pup in the past three seasons was truly eye-popping stuff, but here you see that the team has won only 36 percent of its plays as a favorite, including a 3-9 ATS mark in 2003 and a crummy 2-5 ATS log in ‘04. The Panthers began last year by failing to cover four of their first five outings as favorites, while losing outright to both New Orleans and Miami. Still wanna know why Carolina didn’t get to play any NFC Playoff games at home?

Miami (5-12) - Once upon a not-too-distant time, the Dolphins were strong wagering favorites (33-18-1 ATS from 1998-2002), but this AFC East club has been a major dud as a chalk-eater during the past three seasons. Last year, the Fish—en route to covering less than 30 percent of their plays as favorites between 2003 and ‘05 -- weren’t installed as a betting favorite until Week 13, a 24-23 non-cover win against five-point pup Buffalo. Miami is a rotten 3-8 ATS when favored over non-divisional foes in the past three years.

New England (30-13-1) - Maybe you’ve tuned out the Patriots from your personal stream of NFL consciousness, but that would be a mistake from a wagering standpoint, even though New England didn’t win its third consecutive Super Bowl, and fourth in five years, last season. The Pats have covered 70 percent of their games as betting faves in the past three years. An 8-5 ATS mark as chalksters in 2005 wasn’t bad at all, but nothing special when compared with a 10-3 favorite record in 2003 and a 12-5-1 favorite log in ‘04. Now, you’re allowed to say “wow!”

Oakland (5-10) - Way to go Raiders! You’re the only NFL team to make the “Worst List” in terms of both underdogs and favorites in the past three years! The Silver and Black sport an ugly 9-23-1 ATS record as pups since the start of the ‘03 season, and that nauseating 28 percent winning rate isn’t a whole lot worse than this 33 percent winning mark. Oakland failed to cover its last three outings as a favorite a year ago - versus Miami, the New York Jets and Cleveland - and is, in fact, a rotten 5-9 spread-wise the past three years when favored over non-divisional opponents.

St. Louis (12-19-1) - Okay, so you can’t blame everything on since-fired head coach Mike Martz, as the fact of the matter is that the Rams went 2-3 ATS as favorites under then-interim boss man Joe Vitt. Still, the Martz Era in St. Loo sported plenty of feel-bad stories (see Super Bowl XXXVI for starters), and folks getting their hard-earned cash burnt to a crisp by the so-called “Greatest Show on Turf” know full well that the Rams between 2003 and ‘05 went a wobbly 3-10 versus the vig away from the home dome.

San Diego (12-7-1) - Anyone who’s been a player in the NFL wagering market knows that the Chargers have been a wonderful investment in the past two seasons, going 22-8-3 ATS. So it comes as no great surprise that this AFC West squad has cashed out at a 63 percent rate when in the favorite role since the start of the 2003 campaign.

Tampa Bay (12-18) - The Bucs haven’t swooned quite to the degree that the Raiders have since those two teams squared off in Super Bowl XXXVII, but T-Bay has plummeted big-time, with zero playoff wins and a load of pointspread losses, to boot. The Bucs have covered only 40 percent of their games as favorites since the start of the ‘03 season, and last year’s sour 4-7 ATS mark as a chalk included that infamous 15-10 setback at 10 ½-point dog San Francisco.

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