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Pittsburgh (14-5) is currently
a four point favorite over Seattle (15-3). That
might not sound like a big deal, but it is very
rare when a team with a worse regular season
record is a favorite in the Super Bowl. Since
the leagues merged in 1970, it has happened
only five times, excluding the 1982 strike shortened
season.
With that in mind, we thought
it would be a useful exercise to look at those
five games in greater detail.
Super Bowl V, 1971: Baltimore
(+1) vs. Dallas
Baltimore was 11-2-1 in the regular
season, while Dallas was 10-4. Even so, Baltimore
was a slight underdog over a Cowboys team that
was making its first Super Bowl appearance.
This was the first Super Bowl after the merger,
with the Colts moving into the AFC. Baltimore
won 16-13 in a sloppily played game, getting
revenge for their upset loss to the Jets in
Super Bowl III
Super Bowl VII, 1973: Miami
(+2) vs. Washington
The Dolphins went 14-0 in the
regular season, while the Redskins were 11-3.
In the AFC championship game, Miami had to rally
to defeat Pittsburgh, 21-17, while Washington
cruised 26-3 over Dallas in the NFC title game.
Still, it is amazing that a team could go into
a Super Bowl undefeated and be the underdog.
The Dolphins beat the Redskin 14-7 capping off
their perfect season.
Super Bowl XII, 1988: Washington
(+3) vs. Denver
Washington went 11-4 in the regular
season while Denver was 10-4-1, only a half
a game difference. The Broncos were playing
in their second straight Super Bowl, having
been trounced by the Giants 39-20 the year before.
Still, they were favored to win because most
of the experts thought that John Elway was far
superior to Washington’s Doug Williams.
The Redskins crushed the Broncos, 42-10.
Super Bowl XIII, 1989: Cincinnati
(+7) vs. San Francisco
Cincinnati was 12-4 in the regular
season, while San Francisco struggled at 10-6.
The 49ers made the playoffs despite a three
way tie in the NFC West division. The 49ers
made the most of their opportunity by beating
the Bears, in Chicago, for the NFC title. San
Francisco won the game 20-16 on a last minute,
92 yard drive engineered by the great Joe Montana.
Super Bowl XXXVII, 2003:
Tampa Bay (+3.5) vs. Oakland
Tampa Bay was 12-4 in the regular
season while Oakland was 11-5. Oakland was favored
in this game as they had the leagues most potent
offense. Tampa Bay’s team was predicated
on defense even though their coach was offensive
guru, Jon Gruden. Gruden had coached the Raiders
the year before and was looking for revenge.
He got it, as Tampa Bay ended up blowing out
Oakland 48-21.
So there you have it. Five times
the team with the better regular season record
was an underdog in the Super Bowl, and four
times they won the game outright. In the other
game, Cincinnati lost a close one, but covered
the spread.
This analysis doesn’t prove
that Seattle will win the game, or even cover
the spread, but history is certainly on their
side.
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