Monday December 27th, 2004 Page updated at 5:40pm
FantasyFootball Week 16 Studs & Duds
By: David Bachman
Fantasy Football Editor For WagerOnFootball.com

Here's a quick rundown of the NFL's week 16 fantasyfootball stars. These guys are the WagerOnFootball.com "ALL Week 16 STUD Team". After you check out these top performers surf over to our NFL sportsbooks page and see what great sponsors we have here at Wager On Football Sportsbook Review.

A quick look at the big fantasy performers from the weekend.

Stud Of The Week

Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle: Well as I'm sure noone in America saw but me, Alexander romped thru, around, and over the Cardinals Defense to the tune of three monster Td's, and 99% of the Seahawks Offense. The Hawks are now headed to the playoffs, madly celebrating a big win late in the season becomes perfectly acceptable -- and completely necessary. Why stud of the Week you ask? Alexander delivered when his team needed him most.

More Weeks 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 9  .10 . 11 . 12 . 13 . 14 . 15 . 16 . 17

Fantasy Player Statistics - For Sunday Fantasy Football Studs Week 16

 
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Sunday Notes I Scribbled Down

Injury Update -
• Byron Leftwich suffered a mild concussion and was removed for David Garrard. If Leftwich can't play in the regular-season finale, expect Garrard to get the start.
• Ben Roethlisberger left in the third quarter with a bruised sternum and was taken to a local hospital for further tests. His status for Week 17 is unclear, and if he doesn't play, Tommy Maddox should get the start for the Steelers.

Old Dogs, New Tricks

The old hippy anthem, "Don't trust anyone over the age of 30," has also been a staple of fantasy owners when it comes to drafting running backs. Given what the Steelers' Jerome Bettis and the Jets' Curtis Martin have accomplished this season, at ages 32 and 31, respectively, that philosophy may have to be revisited.

Making his sixth start in place of Duce Staley, Bettis notched his sixth 100-yard rushing game Sunday—against the vaunted Baltimore Ravens defense, no less. Bettis started the season playing almost exclusively in short-yardage situations and was limited to 37 carries in his first six games. Nonetheless, he managed seven touchdowns and was a viable fantasy contributor.

When Staley went down with a hamstring injury in a week-eight win over New England, Bettis stepped in with 15 carries, 65 yards, and a touchdown—but that was just the beginning. The Bus carried 122 times over the next four games, topping the century mark each time and scoring three touchdowns. His carries were limited when Staley returned, but with Duce's hamstring flaring up again Bettis responded with 63 carries and two more 100-yard efforts.

Martin's story has been equally inspiring. A noted workout maven, few listened when C-Mart predicted he would return to the 1,500-yard mark he had reached back in 2001. Whispers abounded that LaMont Jordan would steal touches, especially at the goal line; Martin's two 2003 touchdowns appeared to lend credence to that belief.

Curtis answered anyone who had questioned him with three consecutive 100-yard efforts out of the gate, adding five touchdowns to the mix as well. Unlike Bettis, who was spotted through the first half of the season and is on pace for just 267 carries, Martin is only 13 totes away from a career high and has already established a personal best for rushing yardage.

Of course, plenty of thirty-something backs failed to produce as expected this season. Injuries caught up to 31-year-old Priest Holmes, who had been on pace to eclipse the record number of rushing touchdowns he produced last season. Emmitt Smith, all of 35 years old, limps to the end of a Canton-bound career with his best season as a Cardinal, which still pales in comparison to his entire Cowboy career. And Eddie George turned 31 in September but never fit into Bill Parcells' plan and was in street clothes watching rookie Julius Jones by the end of the season.

So while counting on an old dog is hardly a sure thing, no longer can you simply discount a back because of his birthdate. That means Corey Dillon (31 next October), Warrick Dunn (30 in January), and Tiki Barber (30 in April) all remain in play on next year's draft boards, so plan accordinglyFor the fantasy owner, Week 17 either means the world or absolutely nothing. You're not likely to find a middle ground. Most leagues settled their championship Sunday to avoid the final week all together. The fear, of course, is that playoff teams with nothing to gain or lose shift into preseason mode in Week 17 and you wind up with Jim Sorgi facing Craig Nall to decide your league title.
You certainly don't want that – but it remains to be seen just how dramatic the drop-off in playing time will be for the likes of Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Tom Brady and the other stars with nothing to play for but the fortunes of their fantasy owners. Since we realize that many of you are tuning out after this week, this week's installment will reflect a bit on the season that was in addition to looking ahead to Week 17.

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• To say that playoff-bound teams have nothing at stake in Week 17 would not be entirely accurate. Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis needs 59 yards against Buffalo to reach the 1,000-yard plateau for the ninth time in his career. If Corey Dillon gains 81 yards against San Francisco, he earns an extra $300,000 in incentives and reaches all $2.25 million in contract bonuses. Donovan McNabb needs to find his go-to guy in Philadelphia. Atlanta would like to avoid limping into the playoffs with a two-game losing streak. LaDainian Tomlinson matches the NFL record for consecutive games with a touchdown if he can find the end zone against Kansas City. The list goes on.

Rest matters. Health matters. But don't discount the role Week 17 plays as a tune-up for the playoffs. Continuity matters. So does momentum. Warrick Dunn still bemoans the way his Tampa Bay team coasted into the playoffs in 2001 with a meaningless loss to Philadelphia in the final week. Dunn didn't play. The next week the Bucs came out flat and never contended in a 31-9 loss. As a fantasy owner you have to prepare yourself for the worst by acquiring the necessary backups (Jesse Chatman, Verron Hayes, Dominic Rhodes, etc.), but don't count on having to use them. Listen closely to what coaches are saying in the week to come. They don't have much to lose by revealing how much they plan to play their starters. Keep a close eye on this our Fantasy Football content this week as well, as I won't be taking the week off either.
• If you stick with it long enough – say, one season – fantasy football will eventually drive you crazy. Case in point: the performances of Willis McGahee and Reuben Droughns in Week 16. You had to be nuts to start either player with confidence. McGahee didn't practice all week and wasn't supposed to start against San Francisco. We knew Droughns would start, but with Tatum Bell breathing down his neck, how long would he be in there? Long enough, in his case, to rush for 91 yards and score three touchdowns. As for McGahee – he not only started, he rushed for 102 yards and two scores. For all the uncertainty surrounding these guys, it turns out the only question that mattered was: Do you have the guts to play them?

Kudos to the Fox network, which has used every possible nanosecond of available airtime to pimp the latest bar-lowering reality TV atrocity, "Who's Your Daddy?" in which a female contestant is introduced to eight men and must determine which one is the biological father who abandoned her at birth, after which hilarity ensues. Inside sources tell Fanball.com that there is absolutely no truth to the rumor that NBA-TV is planning a similarly-themed show with former pro hoopster Shawn Kemp and ex-Fanball staffer (and current fantasy conscience of NBA-TV) Rick Kamla hosting.

CBS, meanwhile, has had little to promote except the next football-related segment on "60 Minutes" and Colts' quarterback Peyton Manning's pursuit of Dan Marino's record. Executives at the Big Eye couldn't have been happier when Manning failed to turn the trick on ESPN, ensuring a larger-than-usual share for Sunday's Chargers-Colts tilt.

For the first two-and-a-half hours or so, Manning's performance was about as exciting as a typical prime-time evening of CBS "comedy." Then, in one fell swoop, Peyton rewrote the record books and drove his team for the game-tying touchdown. Not only did Manning's 21-yard scoring strike to Brandon Stokley with 56 ticks left on the clock eclipse Marino's single-season touchdown pass record, it also gave the Colts three receivers with at least 10 touchdowns on the year, something that has never been done in NFL history. Stokley also joined Marvin Harrison in reaching the 1,000-yard plateau, one week after Reggie Wayne turned the trick.

When everybody was healthy, the Colts offered what must be a record with eight legitimate fantasy starters on their offense, with running back Edgerrin James, tight ends Marcus Pollard and Dallas Clark, and kicker Mike Vanderjagt joining Manning and his three wideouts. Slotted into the third seed in the AFC, expect Indy to rest many of its horses in Denver next week, with a turnaround game featuring both clubs the following week in Indy a distinct possibility. Should they win that, Indy would head back to Foxboro for a chance to avenge three straight losses to the Patriots.

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A Teams Second WR

The success of second (and third) receivers this season has not been limited to the Colts. The most notable No. 2s, and the ones with the brightest prospects for fantasy success, include the Vikings' Nate Burleson and the Bills' Lee Evans.

Burleson stepped up his game while Randy Moss was out with a hamstring injury, scoring in four of the five games Moss contributed no stats. And even when Moss returned, Burleson remained on Daunte Culpepper's radar, scoring four touchdowns in the last two games and posting back-to-back 100-yard efforts. The Vikings brought in Marcus Robinson to be the complementary receiver to Moss, but Burleson has more than capably filled that role from within. Given the Vikings' propensity to throw the football, Burleson has to warrant consideration as a solid second fantasy wideout heading into next season.

Evans was the X-factor among wide receivers selected early in the 2004 draft. Scouts loved his blazing speed, but his diminutive size and a pair of knee surgeries in college threatened to drop him down the draft board. The Bills weren't scared off, and they're reaping the rewards. Evans fits perfectly into the spot vacated by Peerless Price a couple years ago and has finished with a flourish, totaling 27 catches for 406 yards and seven touchdowns in his last five games. He's at least a couple years away from getting out of Buffalo, and with J.P. Losman in the bullpen, there shouldn't be many quarterback concerns. Eric Moulds continues to provide enough of a threat to keep defenses from focusing exclusively on Evans, and the result could be some very productive numbers over the next few seasons.

A Look Forward

Football fans and fantasy owners, Week 17 is about one thing and one thing only: NFL teams' last-gasp efforts to get into the playoffs. Performance of the individual takes a back seat to a team's needs, so fantasy football is at its wackiest in the regular-season finale.
Unpredictability might seem like a fun idea to some, but judging from most fantasy owners' reactions, it's not welcome in our world. We want consistency and reliability, so in the regular season's final week, what we want to see are teams that still have something to play for. That means the safest players come from the teams that have neither clinched a playoff spot already, nor been eliminated from contention entirely.

Top 10 Week 16 FantasyFootball Studs

1. Shaun Alexander, RB, Seahawks (30 carries, 154 yards, 3 TDs): With Matt Hasselbeck a very late scratch, Seattle relied heavily on Alexander, who came through with his fifth multi-touchdown game of the season. This is the type of performance you want from a stud running back when it matters most. (For those wondering, one of his scores was a recovery of his own fumble in the end zone, so that could affect some leagues.)

2. Reuben Droughns, RB, Broncos (22 carries, 91 yards, 2 TDs; 2 catches, 30 yards, 1 TD): Tatum Bell may be the running back of the future in Denver, but Droughns is the guy for right now. And this time, he did many owners well by scoring three touchdowns.

3. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (21 carries, 81 yards, 1 TD; 5 catches, 95 yards, 1 TD): He and Drew Brees tried to steal Manning's thunder by chewing up the Colts' defense early. Tomlinson was most impressive on a nice catch and long run that was his first TD of the game. Tomlinson has now scored a rushing TD in 12 straight games, an NFL record for a single season, and a stat that makes fantasy owners very happy.

4. Brett Favre, QB, Packers (30-43, 365 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT): Favre usually struggles in the Metrodome, but in front of a national TV audience and with the NFC North title on the line, he came up with a big game just in time for many fantasy owners.

5. Daunte Culpepper, QB, Vikings (16-23, 285 yards, 3 TDs; 3 carries, 21 yards): Lost in the Manning hoopla is the fact that Culpepper is finding his touch again, even with Randy Moss not necessarily at full strength. Culpepper has 37 TD passes this season, which would've made news if not for Manning.

6. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Chiefs (11 catches, 124 yards, 2 TDs): Gonzo isn't giving up title of best fantasy tight end without a fight. He was huge in the first half against a depleted Raiders defense and also made some key plays down the stretch for Kansas City.

7. Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers (19-24, 214 yards, 4 TDs; 1 carry, 12 yards): With Carolina still clinging for its playoff life, Delhomme came up big against a supposedly tough Tampa Bay defense. He's clicked nicely with Muhsin Muhammad, and both would be great pickups in playoff leagues should they make it to the postseason.

8. Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs (25 carries, 79 yards, 2 TDs; 4 catches, 43 yards): His run of consecutive 100-yard games ended, but he still did fantasy owners proud by scoring two touchdowns, although those who had Priest Holmes wonder what might've been.

9. Domanick Davis, RB, Texans (30 carries, 150 yards, 1 TD; 5 catches, 39 yards): He just keeps on scoring touchdowns and getting plenty of touches to keep fantasy owners happy. After a slow start and some injuries, Davis became one clutch fantasy back when it mattered the most.

10. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (27-44, 383 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT): His TD production has slowed in recent weeks, but he still broke Dan Marino's record and did so in very dramatic fashion. Manning has been the fantasy stud this season, so it's nice to see him have a big game when it mattered the most for fantasy owners.

Other top performers: Brian Griese, QB, Buccaneers (30-41, 321 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs; 2 carries, 3 yards); Drew Brees, QB, Chargers (21-31, 290 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; 6 carries, 12 yards); Muhsin Muhammad, WR, Panthers (8 catches, 115 yards, 2 TDs); Willis McGahee, RB, Bills (15 carries, 102 yards, 2 TDs; 1 catch, 14 yards); Lee Evans, WR, Bills (8 catches, 92 yards, 2 TDs; 1 carry, 21 yards); Trent Green, QB, Chiefs (32-45, 358 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; 2 carries, 12 yards, 1 lost fumble); Donald Driver, WR, Packers (11 catches, 162 yards, 1 TD); Michael Bennett, RB, Vikings (17 carries, 92 yards; 3 catches, 67 yards, 1 TD); Jake Plummer, QB, Broncos (21-26, 303 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; 7 carries, 28 yards); Nate Burleson, WR, Vikings (2 catches, 110 yards, 1 TD); Brandon Stokley, WR, Colts (7 catches, 123 yards, 1 TD); Kevin Jones, RB, Lions (25 carries, 123 yards, 1 TD; 1 catch, 8 yards); Chad Johnson, WR, Bengals (8 catches, 46 yards, 2 TDs); Warrick Dunn, RB, Falcons (18 carries, 52 yards, 1 TD; 6 catches, 87 yards); Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers (14-19, 221 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; 2 carries, 11 yards); Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (21-32, 264 yards, 2 TDs); Michael Clayton, WR, Buccaneers (4 catches, 66 yards, 2 TDs); Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals (4 catches, 70 yards, 2 TDs; 2 carries, 10 yards).

Week 16 Duds

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins (10 carries, 32 yards): A shoulder injury did knock him out for most of the second half, but after some strong running late in the season, he picked a bad time to slump again. Portis has not been a bad fantasy player of late. Entering this Week 16 contest, he had rushed for 338 yards and three TDs while adding 56 receiving yards and a score in his past three games. Unfortunately, a bruised shoulder brought Portis' day to an early end, after he looked rather uninspiring against a weak Cowboys defense. While he could easily rebound in time to play the regular-season finale against the Vikings, Portis has at least as much of a chance at being held out of the game as a precaution. The Redskins have already been knocked out of postseason contention, and Minnesota could easily wrap up a playoff berth if the Rams lose on Monday night, making the game irrelevant in the standings.

Billy Volek, QB, Titans (8-20, 111 yards, 2 INTs): We all knew he couldn't keep up his recent pace, but I don't think anyone expected such a dud of a performance when it counted most. He may have carried many teams to the fantasy Super Bowl, but he may have also lost a bunch as well.
Drew Bennett, WR, Titans (2 catches, 26 yards): Like Volek, you knew the good fortune was going to stop, but not in this way.

Hines Ward, WR, Steelers (3 catches, 21 yards; 1 carry, -5 yards): Plaxico Burress (4 catches, 97 yards, 1 TD) came back, so Ben Roethlisberger was happy to get his favorite target back at the expense of the Pro Bowler Ward.

Byron Leftwich, QB, Jaguars (6-14, 35 yards, 1 INT; 4 carries, 19 yards): In a big game for both fantasy owners and Jacksonville, Leftwich was a huge bust. It didn't help that Fred Taylor was a late scratch with a knee injury, but you'd think he'd pick up the slack in his place. It also didn't help that Leftwich suffered a concussion and was replaced by David Garrard. Neither amounted to much Sunday.

Jimmy Smith, WR, Jaguars (2 catches, 17 yards): The unfortunate victim of Jacksonville's struggles throwing the ball. Jimmy killed me in one leagues semi final, and another’s FINAL. Thanks a lot old man….

Curtis Martin, RB, Jets (13 carries, 33 yards; 5 catches, 44 yards): The receiving yards helped him slightly, but the Pats did a good job of bottling up Martin this week at the most inopportune time for fantasy owners.

Now get back to work!!!

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