| POINSETTIA
BOWL
Thursday, December 22nd 10:30 PM ET - Qualcomm
Stadium - San Diego, CA
Navy Midshipmen vs.
Colorado St. Rams
Navy heads to a bowl game for
the third straight season and it will be looking
to win its second straight after easily handling
New Mexico last season. The Midshipmen finished
7-4 on the season culminating with a rout
of rival Army heading into the postseason.
Navy dropped its first two games to Maryland
and Stanford by just three points apiece but
then won its next three games all by a touchdown
or less. The schedule was not demanding as
Rutgers and Notre Dame were the only bowl
teams it played, both losses.
Colorado
St. snuck by UNLV in its final game thanks
to a punt return for the winning score to
become bowl eligible. The Rams dropped two
straight games heading into that finale as
the offense completely shut down, scoring
a combined 16 points against TCU and San Diego
St. The defense was an issue all season and
won't get any breaks against the top ranked
rushing offense in the county based on yardage
alone. The Rams could not stop the run all
season so starting here likely won't happen.
Colorado St. finished 104th
in the country in rushing defense, allowing
200.6 ypg and 4.8 ypc. The Rams held only
one team to fewer than 100 yards rushing and
they gave up 190 or more yards on the ground
in six of their final eight games. In those
right games, seven teams ran for more than
five yards per carry. The passing defense
was much better but it likely won't come into
play as Navy simply doesn't throw the ball
as its 130 pass attempts were fewest in the
nation.
The Midshipmen averaged 286.7
ypg and 5.2 ypc on the ground, 1st and 10th
respectively. It rushed for at least 207 yards
in every game this season and the 490 yards
it put up on Army was a season high. The running
game actually strengthened as the season progressed
as it averaged 380.5 ypg over its final four
games. The 239 yards in put up on Notre Dame
was the most the Irish allowed on the season.
Navy finished 22nd in the country in scoring
offense and scored at least 38 points in four
of its last six games.
Colorado St. generated most
of its offense through the air as it finished
22nd in the country in passing offense. The
running game had moments of improvement but
also moments of futility. The Rams ran for
over 200 yards twice but were held to fewer
than 100 yards five times. They had a stretch
of four straight games where they averaged
only 1.7 ypc but it did improve over their
final two games (4.1 ypc). The offense started
to click midseason but the Rams gained 352
or less total yards in their final four games.
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The Navy
defense finished 51st in the country in total
defense and 66th in scoring defense and those
rankings are slightly better than they should
be due to the 103rd ranked schedule in terms
of strength. The Midshipmen were consistent
as they allowed more than 389 total yards
only once in their final nine games and that
was against Notre Dame. Passing defense was
the strength but Navy was just 74th in passing
efficiency and that is a cause for concern
against the Rams who completed over 60 percent
of their passes.
This game opened at a
pick but Navy quickly became the favorite.
The Rams dropped their last three games against
the number and finished the season 2-4 ATS
on the road. The only two covers however were
in this price range. Navy went 8-3 ATS including
a 3-1 ATS mark away from home and a perfect
3-0 record when favored by 5.5 or less. Both
teams went a combined 13-7-2 over on the season
but just 5-4-1 over on the road. Colorado
St. was a perfect 3-0 over in non-conference
action.
POINSETTIA BOWL
San Diego,
California
Dec. 22, 10:30 p.m. ESPN2
Qualcomm Stadium 70,000
Colorado State (6-5)
vs. Navy (7-4)
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Matt Fargo is a documented member of The Professional
Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here. |
