LAS
VEGAS BOWL
Thursday, December 22nd 8:00 PM ET - Sam Boyd
Stadium - Las Vegas, NV
BYU Cougars vs. California
Golden Bears
The BYU Cougars were the big
surprise of the Mountain West Conference with
a second place finish as 5-3. Things did not
start out well for BYU as it started the season
1-3 with the only win coming against 1-AA
Eastern Illinois. The offense finally found
its groove as the Cougars won five of their
final seven games. One of those losses was
at Notre Dame while the other came in the
season finale against rival Utah in overtime.
BYU won three of its final four road games
on the year.
California started the season
5-0 and it looked as though another special
season could be in the works. However, a devastating
last minute loss to UCLA sent the Bears in
a tailspin where they lost four of five games
before ending the season with a win over Stanford.
It's hard not to overlook the fact that Cal
did not defeat anyone with a winning record
but it has an offense that can keep up with
the best of them. The Bears rely on their
strong rushing offense as the passing game
is non-existent.
Cal is 10th in the country
in rushing offense, averaging 234.7 ypg and
5.9 ypc. The Bears were held to fewer than
200 yards only three times all season and
averaged over six yards per carry in five
different games. The Bears are 89th in passing
offense as they have completed only 50.7 percent
of their passes this year, the fourth lowest
percentage of any bowl team competing this
year. Cal averaged only 23.8 ppg in its final
five games after averaging 40.2 ppg in its
first six games.
The Cougars were up and down
on defense this season but their biggest weakness
might not be exposed by Cal. BYU finished
105th in the country in passing defense and
104th in passing efficiency defense. The Cougars
allowed 23 touchdowns while intercepting only
nine passes. Cal had its four best passing
games against defenses ranked 113th, 111th,
108th and 101st so the Bears could actually
have a decent game through the air. BYU ranked
49th in rushing defense but allowed at least
200 yards four times.
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The Bears defense finished
47th in the country in total defense a big
dropoff from their 13th ranking a year ago.
They held two opponents to three points combined
within their final seven games but they allowed
34 ppg in the five games between. The Cougars
ended up 13th in the country in total offense
and 8th in passing offense which is the downfall
for the Bears who allow 230.4 ypg through
the air, 75th in the country. BYU completes
64.1 percent of its passes while the Bears
allow just 54.7 percent.
Cal snapped a streak of five
straight losses against the number with its
cover against Stanford. The Bears dropped
the cash in three of their last four on the
road and seven of their last nine overall.
They went 7-2 under in their final nine games
and also went 7-2 under with a total of 49
or more. The Cougars ended the year with a
5-2 ATS run after failing to cover in their
first three lined games. That included a 3-1
ATS mark on the road. BYU went over in its
final five games.
PIONEER LAS VEGAS
BOWL
Las Vegas, Nevada
December 22, 2005, at 8 p.m. ET : ESPN
Sam Boyd Stadium: 40,000
BYU (6-5) vs. California (7-4)
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Matt Fargo is a documented member of The Professional
Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here.
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