| HAWAII
BOWL
Saturday, December 24th 8:30 PM ET - Aloha
Stadium - Honolulu, HI
Nevada Wolf Pack
vs. Central Florida Golden Knights
Two surprising teams head to
Hawaii on Christmas Eve in a very good matchup.
Central Florida has the biggest turnaround
of any team in college football this year
going from a 0-11 record to an 8-4 record
and falling one win short of the C-USA title.
The season started off like it might be a
repeat of 2004 with two losses but the Golden
Knights won eight of their final nine regular
season games before losing to Tulsa in the
C-USA Championship.
Nevada has a very similar season
as it dropped two of its first three games
then rebounded to win seven of its final eight
games to finish tied with Boise St. atop the
WAC. This included a season ending win over
16th ranked Fresno St. The Wolf Pack used
a strong offense down the stretch by scoring
at least 30 points in those seven wins. The
unconventional pistol offense caused problems
for many teams and should be effective against
Central Florida who finished 83rd in the country
in total defense.
Nevada ended the season ranked
23rd in total offense and what makes it so
tough to defend is the vast number of formations
that can be used to run or pass. The Wolf
Pack were 29th in passing offense and 32 in
rushing offense and their 32,8 ppg put them
at 24th in the country in scoring offense.
Nevada rushed for an average of 238.8 ypg
and 5.0 ypc over its final four games as the
passing attack took a back seat to its success.
The Wolf Pack had only four games where they
committed more than two turnovers.
Central Florida allowed 160.1
ypg and 4.7 ypc ob the season, putting it
at 71st in the country in rushing defense
and the finish was not good. The Golden Knights
allowed at least 190 yards on the ground in
four if their final five games with the opposition
running for 206.6 ypg and 5.3 ypc over that
five-game stretch. The total defense did not
allow more than 426 yards through its first
six games but yielded at least that amount
in five of their final six games.
The Central Florida offense
was able to pick up the slack however. It
finished 46th in the country in total offense
including 42nd in rushing offense and 46th
in passing offense. The big part of the offense
was being able to hang on to the ball as their
15 giveaways were tied for 12th best in the
country with the likes of Georgia, Michigan
and West Virginia. Overall, the Golden Knights
were 4th in the nation in turnover margin.
The offense was outgained in its last three
games however so the defense will need a strong
effort.
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The Wolf Pack finished 78th
in total defense but it was the passing defense
that was the real problem. They ended up 104th
in the nation, allowing 26.5 ypg through the
air while the passing efficiency defense finished
102nd, as they allowed 27 touchdowns and had
just 10 interceptions. The strength was stopping
the run, especially down the stretch. Nevada
allowed 236.3 ypg on the ground in its first
three games but tightened up to allow only
91.5 ypg the rest of way. It held four teams
to fewer than 50 yards rushing.
Both teams were solid against
the number, going 7-4 mainly because of the
low expectations on each side. Most of that
success was on their home fields though as
they combined to go 9-2 ATS in their friendly
confines. Nevada was 5-1 ATS as a favorite
this season and 3-0 ATS when favored by less
than a touchdown. Central Florida was 4-1
ATS when receiving less than seven points.
The teams combined to go 8-4 under in road
games but Nevada ended with a 5-2 over run
while Central Florida ended with a 6-2 over
run.
SHERATON HAWAII
BOWL
Honolulu, Hawaii
December 24, 2005, at 8:30 p.m. ET ESPN
Aloha Stadium: 50,000
Nevada (8-3) vs. UCF (8-4)
|
Matt Fargo is a documented member of The Professional
Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here. |
