ACC FOOTBALL CONFERENCE PREVIEW

ACC Conference Football Predictions By: Matt Fargo
Matt Fargo remains the NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional Handicappers League --- get his premium plays here.

ACC FOOTBALL predictions 2005-06 VEGAS HANDICAPPERS ONLINE

PT 1 - The ACC is up to its final roster as Boston College rounds out the field that is now at 12. This is the first season the conference is broken into two divisions and also the first year a championship game will take place. I will take a look at the Atlantic Division first which is the weaker of the two. Even with all of the problems at Florida St., the Seminoles are the best of the bunch with Boston College, NC State and Clemson looking to make a push. Maryland and Wake Forest will likely finish 5th and 6th but not without making some noise of their own.

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Florida St. Seminoles - ACC FOOTBALL CONFERENCE PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take As bad as this team looks in certain areas, there is enough talent and athleticism to carry the load. The quarterback situation is a mess and both lines are below Seminole standards but something says they will find a way to get it done. The three losses from last season were by a combined 16 points so any talk of this team descending is wrong even though the goal of a National Championship at this point seems like a longshot.

Returning Starters on Offense – 4 Junior Wyatt Sexton had the quarterback spot but his offseason troubles mean redshirt freshman Xavier Lee is now the man. The offense was 61st in total offense and 57th in scoring offense last season and it is unlikely those ranking improve in 2005. Lee has a suspect offensive line and very young and inexperienced receivers but he does have one of the best backfields in the ACC.

Returning Starters on Defense – 5 This is where the Seminoles are going to have to flourish because they aren’t going to be able to outscore the opposition. The defensive line is relatively new and the secondary will take some time to come together even with two stars back there. The linebackers are the best in the country and are going to have to play even above their ability until the rest of the unit catches up.

Schedule Florida St. plays the hurricanes in its opener for the second straight season and if last year was any indication, it’s not a good thing. Following a break against The Citadel, the Seminoles travel to Boston College but the good news is that the two toughest ACC games are over and done with. Trips to Virginia and Clemson are not easy but doable while the season end with the annual showdown at Florida.

Keep an eye on… Florida St. does get Miami at home this season which is a huge plus but with it being the first game of the season, that is a problem. Another problem is that the Seminoles have lost to the Hurricanes six straight times and are currently on a 1-6 ATS run against Miami. They have been a home dog only five times since 1985, going 2-3 ATS with two of those losses coming against Miami.

Boston College Eagles - ACC FOOTBALL CONFERENCE PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take The Eagles enter their first year of play in the ACC and they picked a good year to do it as they bring a lot to the table in a division that is in a down year. Boston College has won at least seven games in each of the last four seasons and only six points separated the Eagles from a 10-0 start last year. The competition goes up in class this season but another bowl bid is likely and a possible division title is possible

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 The strength of the Eagles on offense is the offensive line that returns all five starters and is rated as a top five unit by many. They will need to carry the load and open holes for an average running game and pass protect for a very average quarterback. There isn’t much experience from the receivers as well so ball control and minimizing turnovers are the keys to success.

Returning Starters on Defense – 7 The defense was one of the best last season as it held opponents to less than 17 ppg. Again, the competition is better and the Eagles won’t be playing the 74th ranked schedule like last year. The front seven is solid with all-American candidate Mathias Kiwanuka leading the way along with a solid group of linebackers. Will Blackmon switching to receiver leaves the secondary very thin.

Schedule This is no 74th ranked schedule that’s for sure but it isn’t the worst in the country either. BYU, Army and Ball St., the latter two being two of the worst teams in the country, provide an easy non-conference slate. The Eagles get Florida St. at home and completely miss Miami but they do have to travel to Virginia Tech at the end of October. Unlike the Big East, no ACC game is a sure thing.

Keep an eye on… The game against the Seminoles will be the first ever ACC contest for Boston College and it looks to be the most important as the winner has the inside track to the division crown. Boston College is 21-11 ATS in its last 32 games at home and that includes a 7-2 ATS mark as an underdog. However, Florida St. is 5-2 ATS as a single digit road chalk.

North Carolina St. Wolfpack - ACC FOOTBALL CONFERENCE PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take The Wolfpack were a huge disappointment last season going 5-6 and missing the postseason for the first time since 1999. What’s amazing is that NC State was 1st in the country in total defense and still had a down year, which shows how bad the offense hurt the team. The good news is that inexperience last season will pay off this year and the defense will once again dominate.

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 A lot of the blame could be put on quarterback Jay Davis but the offense was banged up all season long and was never healthy. They get a fresh start this year with an experienced line and a new set of tailbacks that should be able to provide some depth if injuries do occur in the backfield. The receivers could be some of the best in the conference.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The scoring defense was 25th but that was due to the offense turning the ball over way too much and leading to too many easy scores. The defensive line returns everyone from last season and is arguably the best unit in the country. The rest of the positions are not as experienced from a starting standpoint but there are not a lot of raw players coming into the mix. The defense will be solid once again.

Schedule The schedule is very quirky this season with the non-conference schedule spread out through the entire slate but that can definitely work to the Wolfpack’s advantage. They start at home against Virginia Tech who they defeated in Blacksburg last season so they’d better watch out. They must travel to Florida St. and Boston College to face the two teams who will likely be in front of them.

Keep an eye on… A Thursday night game at Georgia Tech marks the first road game of the season and a win there could mean a 6-1 record before heading to Tallahassee. NC State is a perfect 11-0 ATS as a road dog since 2000, which includes an 8-0 mark in the ACC. The Wolfpack also flourish after a week off, as they are 7-3 ATS following a bye including a 5-1 ATS record on the road.

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Clemson Tigers - ACC FOOTBALL CONFERENCE PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take Clemson has achieved a winning record in each of the last six seasons but the Tigers are still waiting to get over that hump and become one of the ACC elite teams once again. It looks like they are going to have to wait once again but the pieces are in place to make a storybook run. Clemson ended last season winning five of its last six game and missed a bowl only because of a brawl in the final contest.

Returning Starters on Offense – 7 This is Charlie Whitehurst’s last chance to prove what he is capable of doing and he has the players around him to accomplish that. The problem is that these same players were here last year and the offense ranked 90th in scoring and 110th in total defense. If the young offensive line can come together, a strong running game and experienced wideouts can flourish in the new west coast offense.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The defense returns six starters but a lot of talent was lost so trying to replicate a top 30 ranking in scoring and total defense will be difficult. There are big holes to fill up front, in the middle and in the secondary but this unit should still be a middle of the pack defense. They allowed only 12.2 ppg in their final six games so that momentum could help out.

Schedule It’s never easy in Clemson and this year is no exception. Texas A&M starts the season at home followed by three difficult ACC games at Maryland and at home against Miami and Boston College. The next five games provide a little breathing room with contests at NC State and Georgia Tech being the most difficult. Hosting Florida St. and then traveling to South Carolina round out a very tough schedule.

Keep an eye on… The first game should tell us a lot about this team and it will likely tell the team a lot as well. A win over Texas A&M would start the season off right but a loss could be the end already. After losing a heartbreaker to Georgia Tech last season, a four game losing streak ensued and that cannot happen again this season. Clemson is 19-9 ATS as a home dog.

Maryland Terrapins - ACC FOOTBALL CONFERENCE PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take Maryland stunk it up at the end of last season and things don’t look to be too promising in 2005. A severe knee injury to Josh Allen in the season finale last year decimated the running game for this season and with a lot on youngsters on both sides, this has all the makings of a rebuilding year. Coach Ralph Friedgen gets 110 percent from his players though so there will be no quitting.

Returning Starters on Offense – 6 The offense started the season great but ended in embarrassment. After scoring 55 points against Duke in the 4th game of the season, Maryland managed to score a total of 56 points in its final seven games. This year there is no running game and there is a lack of experience at both quarterback and receiver. The offensive line is very big but very young as well.

Returning Starters on Defense – 5 The defense did a very good job of trying to keep games close at the end of last season as it held five of its last six opponents to 17 points or less. The problem now is replacing three-fourths of the front line and the entire secondary that ranked 8th in the country in pass defense. There is some good experience in place however so it won’t be a drastic fall.

Schedule The good news is that the Terps have just one true road contest in their first five games and that is against Wake Forest so it will be good timing for the offense to find some continuity. But then four of the final six games are on the road with Florida St. and NC State being the toughest of the bunch. Games at Temple and North Carolina ease some of the difficulty as does not having to play Miami.

Keep an eye on… Maryland’s first road game is at Wake Forest and it couldn’t have asked for a better opener. The Terps have won 13 of the last 16 meetings going 11-5 ATS in those games. They have lost only once in Winston-Salem, going 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS. It is very possible Maryland is 3-0 heading into this game but it is also possible it could be 0-3.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons - ACC FOOTBALL CONFERENCE PREVIEW

Fargo’s Take Wake Forest finished 4-7 last season but it was probably the toughest losing record in all of the country. The Deacons lost two games in overtime, two by seven points, one by six points and one by three points. Six of the seven losses came by an average of just six ppg so the word frustrating is an understatement for this team. They can improve but the competition continues to be one step ahead.

Returning Starters on Offense – 9 The good news is that nine players return on offense but it was an offense that finished 90th in the nation in scoring and managed only 14 points in its final two games. That youth should grow up this season, as it will have one of the best running games in the country once again. The problem is, a passing game needs to be found to prevent the opposition from putting eight in the box.

Returning Starters on Defense – 6 The defense started good last season but fizzled at the end because of injuries. Those injuries provided some good experience for some young players but this is still a very raw defense with only three seniors in the entire two-deep roster. There are holes everywhere, especially in the front seven, to prevent any sort of success this season.

Schedule The schedule starts off very favorable and ends fairly depressing. Four of the first five games are at home and even though the game against East Carolina is the only one close to a sure thing, it will be good for a young team to try and develop in a positive atmosphere. Following that, four of the next five are on the road and if that isn’t bad enough, the Deacons have to host Miami after that in the final game.

Keep an eye on… The first game is the most important for a young team and a win could vault them to a 3-2 record before the dreadful part of the schedule commences. A win over Vanderbilt is more than likely but a cover is not. The Deacons are 3-10 ATS in their 13 games as a home favorite of nine or more even though they have won 12 of those 13 games outright.

This is Part 13 of a 20 Part College Football Preview Series from Matt Fargo. Check out future stories all summer long.

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ACC Conference Preview By: Matt Fargo
Matt Fargo remains the NUMBER ONE handicapper in 2005 at the Professional Handicappers League --- get his premium plays here.