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Friday
December 30th, 2004 - Page updated at 1:30pm
By:
C. McDermott
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- New Orleans (7-8) at Carolina (7-8)
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- Whether entirely accurate or not, Sunday's battle between
the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints will take on
a winner-take-all tone. In fact, the winner of the Panthers/Saints
showdown will not necessarily clinch the NFC's final wild
card berth, though the victor will have a strong chance
of reaching the field.
Carolina, which extended its playoff aspirations by downing
Tampa Bay, 37-20, last week, would reach the postseason
with a win over New Orleans coupled with a loss for either
St. Louis (vs. N.Y. Jets) or Minnesota (at Washington),
or a win for Seattle (vs. Atlanta). John Fox's squad currently
stands at 7-8 and tied for second place in the NFC South,
and can pull to .500 for the first time since Week 2 with
a victory over the Saints.
New Orleans would require a bit more help, as a head-to-head
loss against the Vikings and what would be an inferior conference
record to both the Seahawks and Rams could place Jim Haslett's
team in jeopardy. The Saints have placed themselves in the
postseason hunt with three consecutive victories, including
a 26-13 triumph over the Falcons last Sunday. New Orleans
will be vying for its third consecutive road victory, after
downing the Cowboys and Buccaneers away from home to extend
its playoff chances in previous weeks.
SERIES HISTORY
Carolina leads the all-time series with New Orleans, 10-9,
and extended its winning streak in the series to four games
with a 32-21 road win in Week 13. The Panthers were 19-13
winners when the teams last met in Charlotte, last season,
with that victory snapping a three-game home losing streak
against New Orleans. The Saints are 4-5 in Carolina all-time,
and their last win of any kind against the Panthers occurred
on the road in the 2002 campaign.
Haslett is 5-4 in his career against Carolina, having defeated
the Panthers in each of his first five meetings against
the team. Fox is 4-1 in his career against both New Orleans
and Haslett.
SAINTS OFFENSE VS. PANTHERS DEFENSE
The Saints will be looking for continued strong play from
running back Deuce McAllister (934 yards, 8 TD), who comes
off an impressive 29-carry, 128-yard effort against the
Falcons last week. The 100-yard game was McAllister's first
in four contests, and fourth overall on the season. The
back was held to 22 yards on seven carries when New Orleans
met Carolina on Dec. 5. Backup Aaron Stecker (237 rushing
yards, 1 TD, 29 receptions) rushed five times for 20 yards
in the Atlanta win. The Saints are 28th in NFL rushing offense
(96.1 yards per game) entering Week 17.
Carolina shut down the Tampa Bay running game last week,
limiting the Bucs to 46 yards on the ground. Pro Bowl linebacker
Dan Morgan (93 tackles) spearheaded the effort, recording
a team-high 12 tackles. Fellow LBs Will Witherspoon (96
tackles) and Mark Fields (53 tackles) combined for nine
stops. Defensive tackle Kindal Moorehead (35 tackles) has
come on strong in recent weeks, and had a 17-yard interception
return for a touchdown against Tampa Bay. End Julius Peppers
(59 tackles) leads all Carolina linemen in stops. The Panthers
rank 14th in the league in rushing defense (116 yards per
game).
New Orleans quarterback Aaron Brooks (3594 passing yards,
20 TD, 16 INT) only completed 12 passes in last week's win
over the Falcons, but made them count to the tune of 227
yards and a touchdown. Five different players caught passes
of 19 yards or longer, most notably wideouts Joe Horn (5
receptions, 76 yards), Donte Stallworth (2 receptions, 62
yards, 1 TD) and Jerome Pathon (3 receptions, 49 yards).
Horn leads the team in receptions (90), receiving yards
(1324) and touchdowns (10). Brooks and Horn hooked up eight
times for 160 yards and two scores against Carolina in Week
13. Brooks has been sacked 38 times on the year, including
four times by Atlanta last week. The Saints currently rank
10th in NFL passing offense (226.1 yards per game).
Stopping the Saints' fleet of receivers will be the responsibility
of cornerbacks Ricky Manning (60 tackles, 4 INT) and Chris
Gamble (69 tackles, 6 INT) along with safeties Mike Minter
(74 tackles), Colin Branch (52 tackles, 3 INT) and Artrell
Hawkins (25 tackles, 1 INT). The unit allowed Tampa Bay's
Brian Griese to throw for 321 yards last Sunday, though
the team did intercept Griese twice. Branch recorded his
third pick of the year, and Gamble and Manning had six tackles
each. Carolina had two sacks last Sunday, including one
for end Mike Rucker (35 tackles, 3.5 sacks), but Rucker
is questionable for Sunday with a foot injury. Peppers leads
the Panthers with 10 sacks, but did not record one against
Brooks in Week 13. Fox's team is 19th in the league in passing
defense (218.6 yards per game).
PANTHERS OFFENSE VS. SAINTS DEFENSE
Panthers running back Nick Goings (775 yards, 39 receptions,
7 TD), who has five 100-yard games in his past six outings,
will look to finish the regular season with a bang. Goings
rushed 33 times for 127 yards in the Tampa Bay win, also
catching four passes for 39 yards out of the backfield.
The former sixth- stringer rushed a season-high 36 times
for 122 yards against New Orleans back on Dec. 5th. Fullback
Brad Hoover (246 rushing yards, 21 receptions, 2 TD) spelled
Goings last week, rushing once for three yards and contributing
a nine-yard reception. The Panthers rank 25th in NFL rushing
offense (102.4 yards per game).
Goings will be pleased to go to work against the NFL's
lowest-ranked rushing defense (147.1 yards per game). Despite
their struggles against the run, the Saints managed to hold
Atlanta to 93 rushing yards last week, including 52 yards
on 18 carries for Warrick Dunn. Linebackers Courtney Watson
(51 tackles) and Colby Bockwoldt (43 tackles) had four stops
each, but it was the effort of the defensive line that truly
carried the run-stuffing effort. Defensive tackle Brian
Young (58 tackles) tied for the team lead with seven stops,
and fellow DT Howard Green (26 tackles) posted four as did
ends Darren Howard (43 tackles) and Charles Grant (72 tackles).
Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme (3579 passing yards,
27 TD, 15 INT) comes off a brilliant performance against
Tampa Bay, as he completed 19 of 24 passes for 214 yards
and four touchdowns in a must-win situation for the Panthers.
Delhomme hooked up eight times for 115 yards and two scores
with Pro Bowl- bound receiver Muhsin Muhammad (87 receptions,
1,310 yards, 14 TD), who last week eclipsed his previous
single-season high in receiving yards. Delhomme also threw
scoring strikes to wideout Keary Colbert (45 receptions,
5 TD) and tight end Mike Seidman (11 receptions, 2 TD).
Delhomme was 22 of 29 for 294 yards and a touchdown against
the Saints on Dec. 5, and Muhammad caught 10 balls for 179
yards and a touchdown. Delhomme has been sacked four times
in three of his last five games, but was dropped just once
last week. The Panthers are tied for 11th in the league
in passing offense (224.6 yards per game).
A New Orleans secondary that had been a liability for much
of the season has caught fire during the team's three-game
winning streak. The Saints held Atlanta quarterback Matt
Schaub to a 17-of-41 passing day, with cornerback Mike McKenzie
(30 tackles, 5 INT) intercepting him twice. Fellow CB Fred
Thomas (48 tackles) had a fumble recovery in the win, and
safeties Jay Bellamy (88 tackles) and Fakhir Brown (52 tackles,
2 INT) led the way with six solo tackles each. The Saints
also sacked Schaub three times, with Howard (43 tackles,
9.5 sacks) taking over the team lead in sacks by recording
one. Howard posted two sacks of Delhomme in Week 13. New
Orleans, which was last in the NFL against the pass last
month, has moved up to 27th in the NFL in that category
(240.9 yards per game).
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Both of these teams deserve a great deal of credit simply
for putting themselves in this position on the last week
of the regular season. Both were left for dead at various
points in the year, and yet the winner of this week's tilt
will likely find itself in the postseason. All signs point
to Carolina being that team. The Panthers are 6-1 in their
last seven games, with the only loss coming in overtime
on the road to Atlanta, and have been a complete team over
that stretch. The Saints' three-game winning streak is only
slightly less impressive, but New Orleans hasn't been quite
as consistent on either side of the ball as have the Panthers.
The fact that Carolina will be playing before the home crowd
is also a mark in its favor. Look for an entertaining game,
one that will come down to the fourth quarter, and for the
Panthers to emerge victorious.
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- Cincinnati (7-8) at Philadelphia (13-2)
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- The Philadelphia Eagles will finish up their historic
2004 regular season on Sunday, when Andy Reid's team welcomes
Cincinnati to Lincoln Financial Field.
The Eagles' 13 wins are a franchise record, and the club
has already locked up the No. 1 seed and homefield advantage
throughout the NFC portion of the playoffs. With that spot
already locked up, Philly was a 20-7 loser to the Rams on
Monday night, as few of the Eagles' top starters played
beyond the first quarter. The loss snapped a six-game winning
streak for Reid and company.
The Bengals, meanwhile, will be looking to finish their
season with a .500 record, which would mark the first consecutive
non-losing campaigns for the franchise since 1989-90. Marvin
Lewis' club was 8-8 in 2003. Last week, Cincinnati rallied
to defeat the Giants, 23-22, at home.
SERIES HISTORY
Cincinnati owns a 6-3 advantage in the all-time series
with Philadelphia, but the Eagles have won three of the
last four dating back to the 1991 season. The Bengals' only
win over that stretch was a 33-30 home victory in 1994.
Cincinnati last won in Philly during the 1988 season. The
Eagles were 16-7 winners when the teams last met, at Veterans
Stadium in 2000.
Reid is 1-0 against Cincinnati in his head coaching career.
Lewis will be meeting both Reid and the Eagles for the first
time as a head coach.
BENGALS OFFENSE VS. EAGLES DEFENSE
Cincinnati running back Rudi Johnson (1355 yards, 9 TD)
will be attempting to end his season on a strong note, and
will also be trying to put last week's weak effort against
the Giants behind him. Johnson rushed for a season-low 31
yards on 19 carries against New York, though his one-yard
touchdown run in the third quarter gave the Bengals a 17-16
lead. The rusher has five 100-yard games to his credit in
2004, but only one of those has come in his past four outings.
Backup Kenny Watson (141 rushing yards, 24 receptions, 1
TD) rushed twice for seven yards versus the G-Men. Cincinnati
ranks 18th in NFL rushing offense (112.7 yards per game).
An Eagle defense that featured a wealth of backups on Monday
night could not stop the run, allowing the Rams to pile
up 209 rushing yards on 44 carries. The job of slowing Johnson
this week will likely fall to reserve linebackers like Ike
Reese (48 tackles) and Mike Labinjo (6 tackles), who played
a great deal of the defensive snaps on Monday. Labinjo was
among the team leaders with five tackles in the game. The
defensive line will again play backups like tackle Paul
Grasmanis (7 tackles) and end Hugh Douglas (15 tackles,
3 sacks), as end Jevon Kearse (31 tackles, 7.5 sacks) will
be among the players unlikely to see significant action.
Reid's team ranks 15th in NFL rushing defense (117 yards
per game).
The Bengals are hoping that quarterback Carson Palmer (2897
passing yards, 18 TD, 18 INT) can return to the field this
week, after the 2003 No. 1 pick missed two straight games
with a sprained knee. Palmer, who is listed as questionable,
has been relieved by veteran Jon Kitna (463 passing yards,
4 TD, 4 INT). Kitna completed 20 of 32 passes for 182 yards,
two touchdowns, and an interception in the win over New
York. Pro Bowl wideout Chad Johnson (90 reception, 9 TD)
caught eight passes for 46 yards and two scores in the win,
and fellow receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh (67 receptions,
3 TD) added 64 yards on five grabs. Kitna was sacked three
times against the Giants, and the Cincinnati line has now
allowed 31 sacks on the year. The Bengals rank 18th in the
league in passing offense (209.4 yards per game).
The second-string Philadelphia secondary had some trouble
slowing St. Louis quarterback Marc Bulger and his gifted
fleet of receivers, allowing Bulger to complete 20 of 27
passes for 225 yards and a touchdown in the game. Backups
like cornerbacks Roderick Hood (36 tackles), Dexter Wynn
(16 tackles) and Matt Ware (11 tackles) will again play
a prominent role in the secondary, as will safety J.R. Reed
(17 tackles). Hood led the Eagles with eight tackles and
a forced fumble against the Rams. Backup ends Jamaal Green
and Jerome McDougle each tallied sacks against Bulger, bringing
the team total in that category to 47 for the year. Philly
ranks 15th in the league in passing defense (203.5 yards
per game).
EAGLES OFFENSE VS. BENGALS DEFENSE
With the top NFC seed already clinched, the Eagles sat
running back Brian Westbrook (812 rushing yards, 73 receptions,
9 TD) on Monday night, a trend that figures to continue
in the Cincinnati game. Backup Dorsey Levens (410 yards,
4 TD) received a bulk of the work against the Rams, rushing
10 times for 44 yards, while usual special teamer Reno Mahe
carried six times for 17 yards. Levens and Mahe will see
time once again, and the team also signed Eric McCoo off
the practice squad to contribute to the ground effort this
Sunday. The Eagles rank 24th in NFL rushing offense (103.9
yards per game).
Cincinnati's defensive Achilles heel in 2004 has been its
inability to stop the run, and Lewis' squad comes into this
week ranked just 25th in NFL rushing defense (132.1 yards
per game). The Giants' Tiki Barber was the latest running
back to give the unit fits, as he rushed for 109 yards on
22 carries in a winning effort. Linebackers Brian Simmons
(101 tackles) and Landon Johnson (76 tackles), who combined
for 14 stops last week, will have to pay attention to Levens
and Mahe. Defensive tackle John Thornton (53 tackles) and
end Justin Smith (67 tackles) have been the line's best
tacklers this year. Thornton notched four solo stops against
the Giants.
Unlike Westbrook, Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb
(3875 passing yards, 31 TD, 8 INT) saw the field on Monday
night, and played long enough to complete all three of his
passes for 36 yards and a seven-yard touchdown to Freddie
Mitchell. McNabb should play sparingly again this week,
before yielding to backups Koy Detmer (1-6 passing, 5 yards
against St. Louis) and Jeff Blake (4-14 passing, 41 yards).
Detmer and Blake will be passing mainly to a backup corps
of receivers including wideouts Greg Lewis (11 receptions
on the year) and Billy McMullen (1 reception). The Eagle
offensive line, which featured several reserves on Monday
night, gave up just one sack. Philadelphia ranks eighth
in NFL passing offense (247.8 yards per game).
The Bengals did a credible job against Giants rookie Eli
Manning last week, limiting the quarterback to 201 yards
on 19 of 37 passing. Madieu Williams (98 tackles, 3 INT)
led the team with nine tackles and a sack, and fellow safety
Kevin Kaesviharn (62 tackles) added six stops in the win.
Cornerback Tory James (57 tackles, 7 INT) continues to rank
among the league leaders in picks, but has not had one in
his past four games. The Bengals have 34 sacks on the year,
including a team-leading seven from Justin Smith. Smith
had one of two team sacks against Manning last Sunday. New
York ranks 14th in NFL passing defense (202.7 yards per
game).
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Eagles' second-string is likely good enough to beat
some teams, but the Bengals are not one of them. Cincinnati
has defeated a probable playoff entry in Denver this year,
and also notched an impressive road win over Baltimore a
few weeks back. Look for Palmer or Kitna to attack the young
Philly secondary along with Chad Johnson and Houshmandzadeh,
and for Rudi Johnson to have success against the Eagles
front seven. Detmer, Levens and the Philadelphia offense
figures to play better than it did against St. Louis, but
won't be able to fuel a victory.
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- Pittsburgh (14-1) at Buffalo (9-6)
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- The Buffalo Bills will attempt to complete an improbable
turnaround on Sunday, when Mike Mularkey's team plays host
to the Pittsburgh Steelers at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
The Bills, who began the season with four consecutive losses,
are attempting to become the first team since the 1992 San
Diego Chargers to make the playoffs after starting 0-4.
Buffalo has won nine of its last 11 and eight of nine, including
a 41-7 road blowout of the 49ers last Sunday. In order to
reach the postseason, Buffalo needs a victory coupled with
a loss for either the Jets (at St. Louis) or Denver (vs.
Indianapolis). If the Bills (9-6), Broncos (9-6), and Jets
(10-5) all finish 10-6, Buffalo and Denver would serve as
the AFC's two wild card entries. Wins for all three teams
this week would leave the Bills as the odd team out in the
postseason hunt.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, enters Week 17 with 13 straight
wins and little to play for. The Steelers wrapped up homefield
advantage in the AFC with a 20-7 win over Baltimore last
week. The victory, coupled with a Philadelphia loss to St.
Louis on Monday night, gives Bill Cowher's club the NFL's
best record as the regular season nears its end.
SERIES HISTORY
Pittsburgh has a 9-8 lead in the all-time regular season
series with Buffalo, and was a 20-3 road winner when the
teams last met, in 2001. The Bills' most recent win in the
series took place in 1999, by a 24-21 count. The Steelers
are 3-7 in Buffalo all-time.
In addition to their regular season advantage, the Steelers
hold a 2-1 edge in the postseason series between the teams.
Pittsburgh defeated Buffalo in AFC Divisional Playoff contests
in 1974 and 1995, and the Bills were a winner in a 1992
AFC Divisional Playoff.
Cowher is 5-3 against Buffalo all-time, including 1-1 in
the playoffs. Mularkey will be meeting the Steelers, for
whom he played from 1989 through 1991, and served as an
assistant from 1996 through 2003, for the first time as
a head coach.
STEELERS OFFENSE VS. BILLS DEFENSE
Pittsburgh comes into this week ranked second in the NFL
in rushing offense (153.8 yards per game), but the team's
top three running backs are listed on the Week 17 injury
report. Jerome Bettis (941 yards, 13 TD) is doubtful with
a sore ankle, Duce Staley (809 yards, 1 TD) is questionable
with a nagging hamstring problem, and Verron Haynes (250
rushing yards, 18 receptions, 2 TD) is probable with a knee
strain. Haynes and fourth-stringer Willie Parker (13 rushes,
84 yards) seem the most likely candidates to see significant
time on Sunday. Haynes had eight rushes for 61 yards in
the Baltimore win, complementing a big day from Bettis (27
rushes, 117 yards).
The Pittsburgh ground attack will work against a Buffalo
defense that enters Week 17 ranked fifth in the NFL against
the run (96.5 yards per game). The Bills allowed San Francisco
just 98 rushing yards last week, with linebackers London
Fletcher (132 tackles) and Takeo Spikes (90 tackles) recording
seven tackles each to lead the way. Spikes also forced a
fumble in the win. End Ryan Denney (31 tackles) paced the
line with five tackles, and mammoth tackle Sam Adams (37
tackles) contributed two stops and his fifth sack of the
year.
The Steelers figure to play without most of their key pieces
in the passing game on Week 17. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger
(2621 passing yards, 17 TD, 11 INT) is questionable with
sore ribs, and could be replaced by veteran Tommy Maddox
(209 passing yards on the year). Maddox completed his only
pass attempt against the Ravens last Sunday. Wideouts Plaxico
Burress (hamstring) and Hines Ward (hip) are both listed
as probable on the injury report, meaning Antwaan Randle
El (36 receptions, 2 TD) and Lee Mays (8 receptions) should
see significant time. Burress (35 receptions, 5 TD), Ward
(78 receptions, 4 TD) and Randle El (36 receptions, 2 TD)
each caught three passes in the Baltimore win. The starting
Steeler line has given up just 34 sacks all year, including
none last week. Pittsburgh ranks 26th in NFL passing offense
(174.3 yards per game).
The Bills were all over San Francisco quarterbacks Ken
Dorsey and Cody Pickett last week, finishing with three
interceptions, three sacks, and forcing each QB to fumble
once in the game. Safety Lawyer Milloy (56 tackles, 2 INT)
and cornerback Nate Clements (68 tackles, 5 INT) each had
picks in the game, and corner Terrence McGee (88 tackles,
3 INT) posted a game-high tying seven tackles. End Aaron
Schobel (65 tackles, 8 sacks) failed to add to his team-
leading sack total, but did recover a fumble in the contest.
Mularkey's team ranks third in the league against the pass
(167.9 yards per game).
BILLS OFFENSE VS. STEELERS DEFENSE
Buffalo will seek to establish the run against Pittsburgh,
an effort that will begin with running back Willis McGahee
(1049 yards, 11 TD). McGahee went over the 1,000-yard plateau
last week, bolting for 102 yards and two touchdowns on just
15 attempts. McGahee was relieved in the blowout by Shaud
Williams (165 yards, 2 TD), who rushed for a career-high
93 yards on 17 carries and scored a touchdown. Former starter
Travis Henry (326 rushing yards), who has not played since
Week 12 due to an ankle injury, is questionable for the
Steelers game. Following last year's 226-yard ground explosion,
the Bills rank 13th in the league in rushing offense (118.5
yards per game).
McGahee will have to operate against a Pittsburgh defense
that ranks first in the NFL against the run (80.2 yards
per game). The Steelers shut down Baltimore's Jamal Lewis
last Sunday, holding the back to 26 yards on 14 carries
on the afternoon. Inside linebacker James Farrior (93 tackles,
4 INT) had a team-high 10 tackles, and James Harrison (44
tackles) added six stops from his outside slot. For the
line, end Aaron Smith (43 tackles) and nose tackle Chris
Hoke (24 tackles) contributed three tackles each. Smith
leads all Pittsburgh linemen in stops this year.
Quarterback Drew Bledsoe (2743 passing yards, 20 TD, 15
INT) continued to lend the Bills a steadying hand in the
passing game last week, completing 21 of 32 passes for 172
yards and a touchdown in the game. Bledsoe was relieved
by backup Shane Matthews in the rout, and Matthews completed
2 of 3 passes for 44 yards, including a 33-yard touchdown
pass to Lee Evans. Evans (46 receptions, 9 TD) finished
with eight receptions for 92 yards and two scores, and Eric
Moulds (84 receptions, 5 TD) contributed eight receptions
for 81 yards in the game. The Bills line allowed just one
sack against the 49ers, and has given up more than two sacks
to Bledsoe just once during the team's 8-1 run. Buffalo
ranks 25th in NFL passing offense (176.4 yards per game)
entering this week.
The return of cornerback Chad Scott (24 tackles, 1 INT)
to the lineup this week is the big story for the Pittsburgh
secondary, after Scott missed nine games with a torn quadriceps
tendon. He will start in place of Deshea Townsend (56 tackles,
4 INT), who is out with a broken hand. Fellow CB Willie
Williams (53 tackles, 1 INT) led the secondary with six
tackles in the Baltimore win, and safety Chris Hope (86
tackles, 1 INT) chipped in with five. The Steelers did not
sack the Ravens' Kyle Boller last week, though outside linebacker
Joey Porter (52 tackles, 6 sacks) recorded an interception
in the game. Cowher's crew ranks fourth in NFL passing defense
(177.6 yards per game).
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Logic suggests that the Steelers won't place many of their
starters in harm's way, particularly on the offensive side
of the ball. Fortunately, Pittsburgh's second-string, which
includes veterans like Maddox and Randle El, should be able
to offer the team something, and one of the league's best
defenses doesn't figure to drop off a bunch either. There's
nothing to suggest that the Steelers will have a great deal
of intensity as compared to the Bills, which is why they
figure to lose for the first time since Week 2. But look
for Pittsburgh to keep it close, and for the result to be
in doubt late.
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San Francisco (2-13) at New England (13-2)
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- The New England Patriots will try to close their regular
season on a high note this Sunday, when Bill Belichick's
squad plays host to the struggling San Francisco 49ers at
Gillette Stadium.
New England wrapped up the No. 2 seed in the AFC with last
week's 23-7 win over the Jets, also earning a first-round
bye with the victory. The dominating performance helped
erase the remnants of a shocking 29-28 loss to the lowly
Dolphins in Week 15. The defending Super Bowl champs are
13-2 and are tied with the Eagles for the second best record
in the NFL.
San Francisco, meanwhile, travels to New England with the
postseason nothing but a distant fantasy. The 49ers' 41-7
home loss to the Bills last week clinched the No. 1 pick
in the 2005 NFL Draft for Dennis Erickson's team. With a
defeat on Sunday, the Niners can match the worst mark in
franchise history (2-14), set by the 1978 and 1979 editions
of the team.
SERIES HISTORY
San Francisco holds a 7-2 edge in the all-time series with
New England, but was a 24-21 road loser when the teams last
met, in 1998. The 49ers last defeated the Patriots in 1995,
and last won in New England during the 1992 campaign. Both
of the Pats' wins in the series have come at home.
Belichick is 1-0 all-time against San Francisco, with the
win coming for his Browns team in 1993. Erickson will be
meeting both Belichick and the Patriots for the first time
as a head coach.
49ERS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE
The 49ers come into Week 17 ranked 30th in the league in
rushing offense (87.6 yards per game), and will this Sunday
look for Kevan Barlow (719 yards, 7 TD) to come up with
an encouraging performance in what has been an otherwise
disappointing season for the fourth-year pro. Barlow has
just one 100-yard game to his credit in 2004, and his 15-carry,
72-yard, one-touchdown day against Buffalo last week was
his most productive outing since Week 6. Maurice Hicks (330
yards, 2 TD), who started in place of Barlow earlier this
season, rushed 10 times for only 10 yards against the Bills.
Third-stringer Terry Jackson (101 yards) rushed twice for
11 yards, and also caught a pass. The Niners are averaging
just 3.5 yards per rush this year.
After holding the Jets' Curtis Martin to 33 yards on 13
carries in last week's win, the Patriots now rank fourth
in the league in rushing defense (95.8 yards per game).
Inside linebackers Tedy Bruschi (107 tackles, 3.5 sacks)
and Ted Johnson (69 tackles) were 1-2 in stops against New
York, combining for 14 tackles in the game. Rookie nose
tackle Vince Wilfork (37 tackles, 2 sacks) had a big game,
leading the line with four tackles in the key victory. End
Richard Seymour (39 tackles, 5 sacks), who is second on
the line in stops this year, is doubtful for Sunday due
to a knee injury.
San Francisco will apparently give Ken Dorsey (1042 passing
yards, 5 TD, 9 INT) the nod behind center this week, after
Dorsey was benched in favor of Cody Pickett in the second
half of last week's loss to the Bills. Dorsey completed
5 of 10 passes for 54 yards, a fumble, and an interception
before being removed. Pickett fared no better, completing
4 of 10 for 55 yards, two interceptions, and a fumble. Wideout
Brandon Lloyd (43 receptions, 6 TD), who caught two balls
for 25 yards in the loss, is unlikely to play against New
England due to a foot injury. Cedrick Wilson (46 receptions,
3 TD), who has been the team's most reliable wide receiver
this year, will serve as a main target along with tight
end Eric Johnson (79 receptions, 2 TD). The Niner line allowed
three sacks last week, and has given up a bloated 51 on
the year. San Francisco ranks 20th in NFL passing offense
(196.9 yards per game).
New England's injury problems in the secondary have yet
to take a turn for the better, as safety Dexter Reid (shoulder)
is doubtful, and cornerbacks Ty Law (foot), Asante Samuel
(shoulder), Randall Gay (arm/flu), Earthwind Moreland (abdomen)
and safety Eugene Wilson (thigh) are questionable for this
week. Samuel (34 tackles, 1 INT) and strong safety Rodney
Harrison (129 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT) each had five tackles
in the Jets win, and Wilson (67 tackles, 4 INT) added an
interception of Chad Pennington. The Patriots also sacked
Pennington three times, with outside linebackers Mike Vrabel
(70 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and Roosevelt Colvin (29 tackles,
5 sacks) each notching one. New England has 44 sacks on
the year, and ranks 16th in NFL passing defense (214.5 yards
per game).
PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. 49ERS DEFENSE
The Patriots have something of a running back quandary
this week, as starter Corey Dillon (1519 rushing yards,
11 TD) is probably best left out of a meaningless game but
reserves Kevin Faulk (255 yards, 26 receptions, 3 TD) and
Patrick Pass (125 yards, 23 receptions) are both listed
as questionable with knee injuries. Deep reserves like Cedric
Cobbs (30 rushing yards) and Rabih Abdullah (8 yards) could
be in line for a wealth of playing time this week. Dillon
led the Pats with 89 rushing yards on 29 carries in Week
16. Belichick's charges rank eighth in the league in rushing
offense (130.7 yards per game).
The 49ers had little idea how to stop the Buffalo running
game last week, as the Bills piled up 226 ground yards in
the blowout. The task of stopping New England's running
backs will fall mainly to inside linebackers Jeff Ulbrich
(80 tackles) and Derek Smith (101 tackles), who combined
for 16 stops last Sunday. The line's best tackler last week
was end Chris Cooper (14 tackles), who had six stops in
the game. Defensive tackle Anthony Adams (47 tackles), who
leads all Niner linemen in tackles this year, is questionable
for Sunday due to a knee injury. Erickson's squad is 19th
in the league in rushing defense (121.4 yards per game).
It is unclear how much playing time Patriots quarterback
Tom Brady (3466 passing yards, 26 TD, 13 INT) will receive
on Sunday, but it is nearly certain that backup Roan Davey
(44 passing yards this year) will see some action. Brady
bounced back from a four-interception outing against Miami
in Week 15, completing 21 of 32 passes for 264 yards and
two touchdowns in the Jets win. Brady's favorite target
was wideout Deion Branch (32 receptions, 3 TD), who caught
seven passes for 82 yards and a touchdown. David Givens,
who leads the team in catches (54) and receiving yards (844),
caught two passes for 64 yards. The New England line allowed
one sack last week, and has given up just 25 all year. The
Pats rank 13th in the league in passing offense (223.8 yards
per game).
The depleted San Francisco secondary struggled to stop
Buffalo's receiving tandem of Eric Moulds and Lee Evans,
allowing the duo to combine for 16 catches, 173 yards, and
two touchdowns. Cornerbacks Jimmy Williams (44 tackles)
and Shawntae Spencer (67 tackles) will look to do a stronger
job on New England's fleet of receivers. Williams had a
game-high 12 tackles in the Buffalo loss, and safeties Ronnie
Heard (67 tackles, 1 INT) and Tony Parrish (80 tackles,
4 INT) had five each. The Niners have just 28 sacks on the
year, and managed just one against the Bills, that by reserve
cornerback Joselio Hanson. End John Engelberger leads the
team in sacks, with five, but has been shut out in that
regard for three straight games. San Francisco ranks 18th
in the league in passing defense (217 yards per game).
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Conventional wisdom suggests that the Patriots' starters
won't see much time, but that should hardly matter against
the woeful 49ers. Even New England's backups will match
up well with Dennis Erickson's battered team, and the quality
of the Patriots' offensive and defensive systems are another
mark in the club's favor. San Francisco doesn't figure to
do much against the Patriots, especially on the road and
in a chilly climate.
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