Friday December 30th, 2004 - Page updated at 1:30pm
NFL Week 17 Game Previews
By: C. McDermott
NFL Handicapper For WagerOnFootball.com Sportsbook Review

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NFL Preview - NY Jets (10-5) at St. Louis (7-8)

(Wager On Football - NFL Picks - NFL Matchup Previews)- A pair of teams looking to crystallize their playoff hopes will meet at the Edward Jones Dome on Sunday, when the St. Louis Rams play host to the New York Jets.

The Rams enter Week 17 still alive in the NFC West race, needing a win and a Seattle loss to Atlanta in order to claim the division crown. Mike Martz's team, which kept its postseason aspirations intact with a 20-7 win over the Eagles, on Monday night, can also remain alive in the wild card hunt with a victory over the Jets.

New York, meanwhile, can wrap up the first of two AFC Wild Card berths with a triumph in the Dome. If victorious against the Rams, Herman Edwards' club would travel to face No. 4 seed San Diego in the opening playoff round. A loss, however, would place the Jets in jeopardy of missing the playoffs. If Buffalo (vs. Pittsburgh) and Denver (vs. Indianapolis) are both winners in Week 17, the Jets would come out on the short end of a three-way tiebreaker with the similarly 10-6 Bills and Broncos.

SERIES HISTORY

The Rams have an 8-2 edge in their all-time series with the Jets, and have won six straight in the series dating back to 1986. New York's last win in the series was a 27-24 overtime triumph against the then-Los Angeles Rams at the Meadowlands in 1983, and its only road victory in the series occurred in L.A. in 1970. St. Louis was a 34-14 winner when the clubs last met, at Giants Stadium, in 1998. The Rams won the only matchup between the teams in the Arch City, prevailing by a 30-10 count during the 1998 campaign. The Jets are 0-2 in St. Louis all-time, including a loss there to the Cardinals in 1971.

Martz is 1-0 against the Jets in his career, with the win coming in 2001. Edwards is 0-1 versus both Martz and the Rams as a head coach.

JETS OFFENSE VS. RAMS DEFENSE

In last week's humbling loss to the Patriots, Curtis Martin and the NFL's fourth-best running game (147.2 yards per game) were squeezed into submission. Martin (1544 yards, 12 TD), who himself is third in the league in rushing, was limited to 33 yards on 13 carries after going over the century mark in two of the previous three games. Lamont Jordan (456 yards, 2 TD) failed to provide any kind of change in the pace with only two carries for six yards. Jordan's usefulness is clearly minimized when the Jets fall behind, as he has carried the ball an average of 2.5 times in each of the team's losses, as opposed to his average of 14 rushes in the last five victories.

Luckily for New York, Martin and Jordan will face a Rams defense that is ranked 27th against the rush (133.3 yards per game). Last week, Philadelphia's Dorsey Levens, subbing for a resting Brian Westbrook, was the Eagles' leading ball carrier with 44 yards on 10 rushes. Of course, it's really tough to gauge St. Louis' defensive performance, as Philly, with the NFC's top seed locked up, had its reserve offense in the game even before halftime. The last time the Rams faced first-stringers for 60 minutes, the Arizona Cardinals as a team carried 40 times for 131 yards and two touchdowns in Week 15. The Cards' Emmitt Smith went for 71 yards on 19 rushes.

The Jets' Chad Pennington had a brutal day against the Pats last week, going 22-of-36 for 252 yards, a touchdown, two interceptions and a lost fumble. This all came despite the fact that he was facing a depleted New England secondary. Pennington, who fell to 1-4 in his career versus the Patriots, failed miserably to build upon his awesome 253-yard, three touchdown performance against Seattle in Week 15. In the Patriots game, Justin McCareins was the Jets' leading receiver with five catches for 76 yards, while Santana Moss included the team's lone touchdown amongst his two catches on the day. Overall, the Jets rank 21st in the NFL in aerial production (193.7 yards per game).

While the Rams didn't face Westbrook at all in Monday night's win over the Eagles, they did go against Pro Bowl quarterback Donovan McNabb for one series. Philadelphia primarily went with the run on that opening drive, but McNabb went 3-for-3 for 36 yards and a touchdown before exiting. The rest of the game, with the Eagles' backup receivers and offensive line in, the Rams held the duo of Koy Detmer and Jeff Blake to 5-for-20 passing for 46 yards. The week prior, Arizona's Josh McCown tore dissected the St. Louis secondary with a 22-for-34 performance for 287 yards and two scores. The Rams haven't managed an interception the past two weeks, and are last in the league with only six picks this season. Overall, St. Louis ranks 13th in the NFL against the pass (202 yards per game).

RAMS OFFENSE VS. JETS DEFENSE

Rookie running back Steven Jackson played an increased role last week, going for 148 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. Jackson (644 yards, 3 TD) did a good chunk of his damage against the Philly starters on the first drive, accounting for 46 of the 73 yards and the TD it resulted in. Marshall Faulk (759 yards, 3 TD) carried 17 times for 54 yards, playing his second straight game after missing two with a knee injury. Jackson did suffer a bruised right knee in the fourth quarter, although he is likely to play in the contest against the Jets. The Oregon State product, who missed two straight games with a sprained knee, has averaged 133 yards in his last two games. Jackson's recent production is a breath of fresh air for a team that is merely 22nd in rushing offense (105.1 yards per game).

Jackson may find it tough going against the Jets' seventh-ranked rush defense (101.3 yards per game) that hasn't allowed a single back to go over the century mark since Buffalo's Willis McGahee back on November 7. Last week, the Patriots' Corey Dillon carried 29 times for 89 yards, and New England as a team went for 114 yards on 38 rushes. Rookie linebacker Jonathan Vilma led the Jets with 11 tackles and a sack last week, and he leads the team with an even 100 stops on the season. Safety Erik Coleman, a fellow rookie, recorded 10 tackles versus New England.

Rams signal caller Marc Bulger returned to the lineup against Philly after missing two weeks with a right shoulder injury, completing 20-of-27 passes for 225 yards and a third-quarter touchdown to Isaac Bruce. Without Bulger (3514 yards, 18 TD, 12 INT) veteran Chris Chandler guided the offense in consecutive road losses to Carolina and Arizona. On Monday, Bulger hit Bruce eight times for 98 yards, and found Torry Holt on seven occasions for 75 yards. Bruce fell two yards shy of his seventh 100-yard game of the season, but nonetheless continued to rack up numbers in his best season in four years. Overall, the Rams rank fifth in the NFL in aerial production (254.5 yards per game).

In Week 16 the Jets' pass defense fell in line with the rest of the team, letting Tom Brady complete 21-of-32 passes for 264 yards and two touchdowns. Brady preyed on New York, less than a week after tossing four interceptions against the lowly Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football. The week prior, the Jets, despite winning, allowed Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck to go a solid 22- for-30 for 201 yards, two scores and a pick. Of course, in that game New York was able to sack Hasselbeck three times, while Brady was only put to the turf once a week ago. And the team's pass rush may remain shorthanded, as defensive end John Abraham (49 tackles, 9.5 sacks) is questionable after missing three games with a knee injury. Overall the Jets rank 11th against the pass (192 yards per game).

OVERALL ANALYSIS

In a Week 17 where several games need the snooze alarm because of contenders resting their starters, the Rams and Jets will play one of the few contests where both clubs have something riding on it. Unfortunately for the Jets, who can still get in the playoffs if they lose and get some help, they are an ordinary 4-3 on the road, whereas the Rams, who absolutely must win to stay alive, are 5-2 on the fast track of the Jones Dome.

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NFL Preview - Tampa Bay (5-10) at Arizona (5-10)

(Wager On Football - NFL Picks - NFL Matchup Previews) - A pair of clubs trying to end their respective seasons on a high note will meet on Sunday, when the Arizona Cardinals play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Sun Devil Stadium.

The Cardinals saw their already-thin playoff hopes erased last Sunday, when Dennis Green's squad dropped a 24-21 decision in Seattle. Arizona has made just one playoff appearance since moving to Phoenix from St. Louis in 1987, and has clinched its 11th season of six or fewer wins in the last 16 years. Green and company have locked up third place in the NFC West.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, continued its disappointing 2004 run with a 37-20 home loss to the Panthers last week. The defeat was the second straight for Jon Gruden's club, and eliminated the Bucs from wild card contention in the NFC. The Buccaneers, who have clinched last place in the NFC South, are just 12-19 since winning the Super Bowl following the 2002 season.

SERIES HISTORY

Arizona and Tampa Bay have split 14 all-time meetings, with the Buccaneers winning the most recent such matchup, 19-18 at home, in 1997. The Cardinals were a 13-9 winner when the teams last met in Phoenix, during the 1996 campaign. Tampa's last road win in the series took place in 1992, and the team is 2-1 in Arizona all-time.

Green was 11-9 against Tampa Bay while serving as head coach in Minnesota (1992-2001), and was 8-2 in home games over that stretch. Gruden was 1-1 against Arizona while with Oakland (1998-2001), winning in his only trip to Phoenix. Gruden is 1-0 against Green head-to-head, with his Raiders defeating Green's Vikings on the road during the 1999 season.

BUCCANEERS OFFENSE VS. CARDINALS DEFENSE

Tampa Bay's inconsistency in the running game reared its ugly head in last week's loss to the Panthers, as the team could muster just 46 ground yards on the day. Michael Pittman (876 yards, 38 receptions, 10 TD) rushed 10 times for 41 yards, and fullback Mike Alstott (231 yards, 27 receptions, 2 TD) rushed once for two yards. Pittman and Alstott each caught three passes in the defeat. Pittman needs 124 rushing yards this week to go over 1,000 for the first time in his career, and will be doing so against the franchise for which he played from 1998 through 2001. The Bucs rank a distant 29th in NFL rushing offense (95.1 yards per game).

Arizona enters Week 17 ranked 29th in the league in rushing defense (136.2 yards per game), and last week allowed Seattle's Shaun Alexander to rumble for 154 yards and three touchdowns on 30 carries. Linebacker Gerald Hayes (21 tackles) had eight tackles and a forced fumble in his first start of the season, and fellow LB James Darling (86 tackles) added six stops. End Bertrand Berry (47 tackles) had five tackles in the game, and now leads the line in stops on the year.

A right foot sprain has clouded the status of Tampa Bay quarterback Brian Griese (2632 passing yards, 20 TD, 12 INT) for this week, and Griese is officially listed as questionable. The signal-caller completed 30 of 41 passes for 321 yards and three touchdowns in the Carolina loss, but also tossed a pair of interceptions including one that was returned for a touchdown. If he can't go, Chris Simms (243 passing yards, 0 TD, 1 INT) will get his second career start. Simms started a Week 5 win against New Orleans, but injured a shoulder in that game and has not thrown a live pass since. Whoever plays quarterback will look to wideouts Michael Clayton (78 receptions, 6 TD), Joey Galloway (30 receptions, 5 TD) and Joe Jurevicius (24 receptions, 2 TD). Galloway caught nine balls for 98 yards and a touchdown last week, while Clayton posted four catches for 66 yards and a score. The Buccaneer line has given up 40 sacks this year, including two last week, and the team ranks 14th in the league in passing offense (219.1 yards per game).

The Cardinals held Seattle's Trent Dilfer to 128 yards on 10 of 26 passing last week, but the effort of the secondary wasn't enough to guide a win. Cornerback Duane Starks (51 tackles, 3 INT) notched the only pick of Dilfer on the day, and safety Ifeanyi Ohalete (70 tackles) ranked among team leaders with eight tackles. The Arizona pass rush managed just one sack of Dilfer, that recorded by safety Quentin Harris (30 tackles). The Cardinals have 34 sacks on the year, led by 12.5 for Berry. Green's team ranks ninth in NFL passing defense (189.9 yards per game).

CARDINALS OFFENSE VS. BUCCANEERS DEFENSE

It doesn't appear that Sunday will be the final outing in the brilliant career of Arizona running back Emmitt Smith (868 yards, 9 TD), but it will mark the last game in what has been a fairly productive season for the future Hall of Famer. The 35-year-old Smith needs 132 yards - which would be his biggest game of the season - to become the first Cardinal to top 1,000 yards since Adrian Murrell in 1998. Smith was held to 65 yards on 23 carries by the Seahawks last Sunday. Fullback Obafemi Ayanbadejo (91 rushing yards, 17 receptions, 4 TD) spelled the veteran with two totes for nine yards, and also caught four passes out of the backfield. The Cards are currently 23rd in NFL rushing offense (104.1 yards per game).

The Buccaneers couldn't consistently stop Carolina running back Nick Goings last week, allowing the former sixth-stringer to amass 127 yards on 33 carries. Linebackers Derrick Brooks (130 tackles) and Shelton Quarles (95 tackles), who combined for 24 tackles in the loss, will now turn their attention to Smith. End Dewayne White (28 tackles, 6 sacks) had four tackles to pace the line against Carolina, and nose tackle Chartric Darby (45 tackles) added three. The Bucs rank 22nd in the league in rushing defense (124.4 yards per game) entering the season finale.

Arizona quarterback Josh McCown (2396 passing yards, 11 TD, 9 INT) was generally effective in last week's loss to Seattle, completing 21 of 33 passes for 248 yards and three touchdowns but also firing two interceptions. Wideout Anquan Boldin (53 receptions, 1 TD) caught seven passes for 107 yards and scored his first touchdown of the year, and rookie sensation Larry Fitzgerald (55 receptions, 8 TD) added four grabs for 70 yards and two scores. McCown was sacked four times by Seattle, and the thin Arizona line has now given up 40 sacks on the year. The Cardinals rank 23rd in NFL passing offense (184.5 yards per game).

A Tampa Bay secondary that had played well for much of 2004 fell apart last week, allowing Panthers QB Jake Delhomme to complete 19 of 24 passes for 214 yards and four touchdowns. Cornerbacks Ronde Barber (92 tackles, 3 INT) and Brian Kelly (53 tackles, 4 INT) will be seeking a bounce-back effort, and will require help from safeties Dwight Smith (75 tackles, 2 INT) and John Howell (25 tackles). Barber forced a fumble in last week's loss, and Smith had a game-high 11 solo tackles against the Panthers. Tampa sacked Delhomme just once, with end Greg Spires (59 tackles) notching his eighth of the season. Simeon Rice (38 tackles, 12 sacks), who made headlines with critical comments about the Buccaneer coaching staff last week, did not have a tackle or sack against the Panthers. Gruden's club ranks second in the league in passing defense (164.3 yards per game).

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Negative comments made by Tampa Bay players in recent weeks suggest that the Buccaneers are a team divided, a situation that is always bad news, no matter how much talent exists. The Buccaneers are definitely more talented than the Cardinals, but it doesn't seem likely that they'll pull together for a rare road win, especially in the uninspiring setting of Sun Devil Stadium. Arizona will play this game with an eye towards a possible playoff run in 2005, and will be sufficiently motivated to end the year with a trip to the win column.

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NFL Preview - Jacksonville (8-7) at Oakland (5-10)

(Wager On Football - NFL Picks - NFL Matchup Previews) - The Jacksonville Jaguars could start Sunday's game with the Oakland Raiders in firm control of their playoff hopes, or they could enter the contest with the prospect of a winning season ranking as their main motivation. Jacksonville trails Buffalo and Denver by a game in the Wild Card race heading into Week 17, and will need the Bills to lose to the Steelers in a 1:00 ET game in order for their contest, which begins at 4:15 ET, to mean anything. Denver's battle with Indianapolis will also kick off at 4:15.

The Jaguars squandered what was favorable playoff position with a 21-0 home loss to the Texans last Sunday. But Jack Del Rio's team, whether able to reach the postseason or not, can post their first winning campaign since 1999 with a victory at Network Associates Coliseum. Jacksonville sits in second place in the AFC South as Week 17 begins, one game ahead of third-place Houston.

Oakland clinched a last-place finish in the AFC West with a 31-30 loss to the Chiefs on Christmas Day. Norv Turner's team will be gunning for its sixth win of the year on Sunday, which would mark a two-game improvement over last season's 4-12 nightmare.

SERIES HISTORY

The Jaguars and Raiders have split a pair of meetings all-time, with Oakland winning a 17-3 home decision in 1996 and Jacksonville exacting revenge with a 20-9 road victory the following season.

Turner is 2-0 in his career against Jacksonville, with both wins dating back to his tenure with the Washington Redskins (1994-2000). Del Rio will be meeting both Turner and the Raiders for the first time as a head coach.

JAGUARS OFFENSE VS. RAIDERS DEFENSE

The Jaguars put forth a pathetic offensive effort against the Texans last week and a great deal of the blame can be placed on the shoulder's of the team's young quarterback Byron Leftwich. The second-year QB completed just 6-of-14 passes for 35 yards with a touchdown and an interception. However, to his credit, Leftwich (2,792 yards, 15 TD, 9 INT this season) did suffer a concussion and had to leave the game briefly. The 24-year-old pro out of Marshall is listed as probable for this week's big game. Jacksonville has the league's 19th-best passing offense this season (200.7 yards per game).

The Raiders struggled against the high-powered offense of the Chiefs last week and much of the yardage allowed came through the air. Trent Green threw for 358 yards and two touchdowns, but was also picked off once. Free safety Ray Buchanan led the Raiders' secondary with eight total tackles, while outside linebacker Tyler Brayton picked off Green. Surprisingly, the Raiders, who are 31st in the league with 24 sacks, were able to notch four sacks in last week's tilt. Once again, the Raiders will be without their starting cornerbacks, Charles Woodson and Phillip Buchanon. Both players are listed as doubtful for this week's game. Oakland has the league's 31st-ranked passing defense (251.7 yards per game).

Jacksonville gained 95 of its 126 total yards of offense on the ground last week despite the fact that the team's No. 1 running back Fred Taylor sat out with a knee injury. Taylor (1,224 yards, 2 TD) is listed as questionable for this week's contest. Greg Jones (132 yards, 2 TD) posted the bulk of the carries in Taylor's absence and recorded 38 yards on nine attempts. Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala (65 yards, 1 TD) also added four carries for 25 yards. The Jaguars have the league's 16th-best rushing attack this season (117.1 yards per game).

Oakland did a solid job of stopping the run last week, as it held the Chiefs to 99 yards on the ground. Kansas City's running attack had been extremely tough to stop since Larry Johnson was inserted as the team's No. 1 option, but the Raiders were able to hold Johnson to 79 yards on 25 carries. However, Johnson did post a pair of touchdown runs for the Chiefs. Ted Washington and Warren Sapp, the Raiders' run-stopping linemen, posted four and three tackles, respectively. Oakland currently has the NFL's 24th-best rushing defense (127.9 yards per game).

RAIDERS OFFENSE VS. JAGUARS DEFENSE

The Raiders' have relied heavily on their aerial attack to move the ball this season and they do possess the league's seventh-best passing offense (248.3 yards per game). However, Oakland quarterback Kerry Collins wasn't exactly prolific last week against the Chiefs. Collins (3,353 yards, 21 TD, 17 INT) completed 18-of-37 passes for 217 yards and two touchdowns. The veteran signal-caller also threw an interception for the Raiders. Collins' favorite target was Jerry Porter (61 catches, 963 yards, 9 TD), who hauled in four passes for 57 yards and a touchdown, while Alvis Whitted also hauled in a 35- yard TD catch for Oakland.

The Jaguars did a solid job against the Texans' passing attack last week, allowing just 139 yards through the air. Houston QB David Carr did throw a touchdown pass, but was also intercepted twice. Deon Grant and Dewayne Washington each posted an interception to lead Jacksonville's secondary. Defensive tackle John Henderson did an excellent job of supplying pressure, as he notched two of the Jaguars' three sacks. Jacksonville is the NFL's 17th- ranked passing defense this season (215.4 yards per game).

Oakland's 100 total yards on the ground last week doesn't sound like much, but it was actually one of the team's better performances of the season. After all, the Raiders are ranked dead last in the NFL with an average of 76.5 rushing yards per game. Justin Fargas led the team with 38 yards on six carries, while Zack Crockett added 32 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts. Amos Zereoue, who leads the team with 420 rushing yards, managed just 14 yards on four carries against KC.

One of the reasons Jacksonville was able to do such a good job against the pass last week was because it couldn't stop the run. Domanick Davis led the way, as the Texans were able to pound the ball for 211 yards on the ground. Davis carried the ball 30 times for 150 yards and a touchdown, while Houston's offense held the ball for nearly 39 minutes. Henderson and Marcus Stroud, the Jaguars' excellent interior linemen, each notched seven tackles, but it didn't seem to make a difference. The Texans did what many teams weren't able to do against the Jaguars this week, as Jacksonville has the league's 10th-rated rushing defense (108.1 yards per game).

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Predicting the outcomes of NFL games is never easy, and it rarely gets harder than this Sunday's contest between the Jaguars and Raiders. After all, this could be a huge game for Jacksonville if the Bills lose their contest to the Steelers at 1:00 (ET). Then again if Buffalo wins that game, the Jaguars will already have been eliminated from the postseason. Then there's the Raiders, who have been playing for pride for the last couple of weeks. Therefore, for the sake of my sanity, I am assuming Jacksonville will still be alive in the postseason race at game time on Sunday. If that's the case, Del Rio's boys, who should've learned a valuable lesson last week, will dispose of the Raiders.

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NFL Preview - Indianapolis (12-3) at Denver (9-6)

(Wager On Football - NFL Picks - NFL Matchup Previews) - The Denver Broncos will try to sew up an AFC Wild Card berth at home on Sunday, when Mike Shanahan's team welcomes the Indianapolis Colts to Invesco Field at Mile High.

The Broncos came into Week 16 reeling from their third loss in four games, and were on the outside looking in within the AFC postseason picture. But the club wiped out Tennessee, 37-16, on Christmas night, and benefited from losses for Baltimore and Jacksonville on Sunday in order to gain high ground in their playoff climb. Denver will be either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the AFC with a win this week.

The Colts also had a strong Week 16, coming from behind to defeat the San Diego Chargers, 34-31 in overtime, in order to secure the No. 3 seed in the AFC. Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning threw his NFL-record 49th touchdown pass of the season in the win, which was also the eighth consecutive victory for his team. Tony Dungy and company will be vying for their 13th win of the year on Sunday, which would tie a franchise record.

SERIES HISTORY

Denver holds a 10-4 edge in the all-time regular season series with Indianapolis, and was a 31-17 road winner in the most recent such matchup, which took place in 2003. The Colts' last win in the series took place in 2002, when they won a 23-20 overtime decision in Denver. The Broncos last defeated Indy at home in 1993.

The only postseason meeting between the teams took place last season, when Indianapolis won a 41-10 home matchup in an AFC First-Round Playoff.

Dungy is 3-2 in his career against the Broncos, including last year's playoff win. Shanahan is 1-3 all-time against Indianapolis, including the postseason loss, and is 2-3 in his career against Dungy.

COLTS OFFENSE VS. BRONCOS DEFENSE

It's not surprising that Manning's success has given the Colts the league's top-rated passing offense this season(297.1 yards per game). Manning will start this week's contest despite the fact that Indianapolis is locked into the AFC's third seed, but, it is uncertain how much playing time the team's star QB will actually log. Manning (4,551 yards, 49 TD, 10 INT this season) broke Dan Marino's record in style last week, as he threw for 383 yards with two TD passes. The final TD pass sent the game into overtime. However, Manning did throw his first interception since Week 13 against the Titans. Brandon Stokley, who caught the record-breaking touchdown, led the Colts with seven catches for 123 yards last week. Marvin Harrison also added six catches for 111 yards.

The Broncos' defense put forth a strong all-around effort against the Titans last week and were particularly stingy against the pass. Denver held Tennessee to just 94 yards through the air and forced two interceptions. D.J. Williams and Kelly Herndon each posted an interception for the Broncos, but Reggie Hayward was the real defensive star. Hayward, a defensive end, supplied consistent pressure and ended with three of Denver's five sacks. Denver has the league's sixth-rated passing defense this season (185.4 yards per game).

One would think that Indy's running game would've suffered because of Manning's prolific season, but that hasn't been the case. In fact, the Colts currently have the NFL's 11th-rated rushing offense (121.2 yards per game). However, last week the Colts posted just 104 yards with Edgerrin James leading the way with 86 yards on 22 carries. James (1,550 yards, 9 TD) is second in the NFL in rushing yards this season.

Denver did a strong job against the Titans' rushing attack last week, as it held Antowain Smith to 59 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. Smith accounted for every bit of Tennessee's running game in the loss. Williams was also busy outside of his interception, as he led the team with 12 total tackles. The Broncos have been excellent at stopping the run all year long and currently have the league's sixth-ranked rushing defense (98.5 yards per game).

BRONCOS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE

The Broncos controlled last week's win over the Titans with their relentless rushing attack. Denver racked up 193 yards on the ground and held the ball for over 39 minutes. Reuben Droughns paced Denver with 91 yards and a career-high three touchdowns in the win. Droughns (1,164 yards, 6 rushing TD) scored twice on the ground and also caught a touchdown pass from Jake Plummer. Tatum Bell (305 yards, 3 TD) also posted 12 carries for 44 yards in the victory. The Broncos have the league's fifth-rated rushing offense this season (141.3 yards per game).

The ability to stop the run has been the stronger suit of the Colts' defense this season. However, that isn't really impressive considering the overall performance of Indy's defense this year. Still, the Colts are ranked 20th in the league at stopping the run this season (121.5 yards per game). Dungy's team did a solid job against LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers last week, as they surrendered 93 total yards on the ground. Tomlinson was able to post a 16-yard touchdown run for San Diego. Outside linebacker David Thornton (85 tackles) was busy for the Colts, as he posted nine stops.

Plummer turned in a strong effort last week against the Titans and that was good news for Denver's aerial attack. The Broncos have the NFL's sixth-ranked passing offense (250.7 yards per game), but their quarterback had been inconsistent at times. In fact, Plummer (3,843 yards, 25 TD, 20 INT) had thrown just one touchdown and eight interceptions in his first three games of December. However, Plummer put that behind him last week, as he completed 21- of-26 passes for 303 yards and two touchdowns. An interception was the lone blemish for the team's No. 1 quarterback. Ashley Lelie (51 catches, 1,014 yards, 6 TD) led the team with three catches for 88 yards, while Rod Smith (73 catches, 1,068 yards, 7 TD) added six receptions for 58 yards and a TD.

As usual, the Colts' secondary struggled last week and wound up surrendering 290 yards through the air. San Diego quarterback Drew Brees posted three touchdown passes, but was also intercepted once. Colts middle linebacker Rob Morris (76 tackles) posted five tackles and the interception. Meanwhile, Dwight Freeney posted his NFL-leading 16th sack in the win. It was the lone sack of the game for the Colts. Indianapolis is ranked 28th in the NFL in terms of passing defense (243.5 yards per game).

OVERALL ANALYSIS

This Sunday's game is a classic example of a battle between a team that has everything to lose and an opponent that has nothing to play for. Indianapolis simply wants to keep some of its starters sharp, as it tunes up for the playoffs the following week. Meanwhile, the Broncos control their own destiny and can secure a postseason berth with a victory. Denver has been inconsistent all season long, but it shouldn't be hard for Shanahan to get his team up for this contest. Look for Droughns to have a big game, as the Broncos seal up one of the conference's wild card spots.

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