AFC CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW

January 19, 2006 4:00 PM ET

Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3)

It may not be the game network bigwigs were hoping for, but fans of smash-mouth football are salivating over Sunday's AFC donnybrook pitting the sixth-seeded Steelers against the second-seeded Broncos.

Even though Pittsburgh and Denver haven't met since 2003, these teams should be quite familiar with each other because they're mirror images. Both squads love to run the ball, using a bigger back inside and a faster back outside. Both have one downfield threat they rely on. Both smother the run defensively, using a hard-hitting safety as an extra linebacker.

There should be plenty of teeth-rattling, helmet-knocking hits on Sunday, with the victor emerging from under a playoff cloud (Bill Cowher's lack of success in title games, Mike Shanahan's dearth of postseason wins sans John Elway) in Detroit for Super Bowl XL.

When the Steelers have the ball: Against the Colts, Pittsburgh came out throwing and went up quickly, 14-0. But by the end of the game they had settled into their familiar format, with 42 runs and 24 passes.

Why change now? Both teams are far more effective when they don't have to ask their quarterback to play from behind, so each will do everything possible to get their ground game started. What's nice for the Steelers is that they're extremely familiar with Denver's defensive line, seeing as most of them were playing for the Browns last year. And, seeing as Pittsburgh always runs the ball well against Cleveland, they should enter this game extremely confident about their prospects of moving the ball on the ground.

Of course, the Browns don't have John Lynch. And Denver's linebackers are pretty good, too.

Still, as long as this one stays reasonably close the Steelers will continue to hand the ball to Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis. Each garnered 17 carries last week, and odds are duties will be similarly split against Denver: Parker will see the bulk of the early carries, while Bettis should see the goal-line work. Verron Haynes will be called on as well, though he's clearly the third wheel in the Steeler backfield.

Denver's defense hasn't surrendered a running back rushing touchdown at home since mid-October, and they've allowed only two 100-yard rushers all season. It's unlikely either Parker or Bettis get the carries to add to that total; combined, however, they should reach triple-digit yardage. If they do, it bodes extremely well for the Steelers' chances of running the road table and bringing Bettis home to Detroit for the Super Bowl.

Despite the early flurry of passes, Ben Roethlisberger's final numbers last week were about what we've come to expect: a couple touchdowns and around 200 yards (197 against Indy) on about 20 or so attempts. The best news for Big Ben this week is that he isn't likely to be harassed by Denver's pass rush, which ranked last in the league in sacks. The Broncos do like to bring linebackers and safeties on the pass rush, but Pittsburgh is ideally suited to counter that plan with fullback Dan Kreider picking up the blitz and tight end Heath Miller working the middle of the field.

In fact, Miller—who caught three balls for 61 yards and a touchdown last week—will be a key to Pittsburgh's passing game. With Champ Bailey shadowing Hines Ward, if Roethlisberger can get the ball to Miller exploiting the space vacated by Denver's blitzing safeties it could keep the Broncos on their heels—and allow them to run the ball more effectively as well.

The Steelers may have more difficulty getting Antwaan Randle El involved because of the speed of Denver's linebackers. However, if Bailey is locked on Ward he'll be working against a pair of rookies, another matchup Roethlisberger may feel compelled to exploit. And don't expect Bailey to completely take Ward out of the picture; the Steelers are famous for an array of direct snaps and double passes that are sure to find their way into Sunday's game plan.

Jeff Reed shouldn't be thrown by the conditions, as the wind at Heinz Field makes kicking their as difficult as anyplace on the league. He's connected on eight straight and should be money here as well, though don't get your hopes up for a point orgy.

When the Broncos have the ball: Everything we said up above? Repeat it, only substitute "Mike Anderson" for "Jerome Bettis," "Tatum Bell" for "Willie Parker," "Rod Smith" for "Hines Ward," and "Jake Plummer" for "Ben Roethlisberger."

Yes, these teams are that similar. Like the Steelers, the Broncos prefer to run the ball and limit Plummer's attempts, though they're also not afraid to take a couple shots downfield. Like Pittsburgh, Denver has one primary target in the passing game that it will turn to in almost every situation.

And, like the Broncos, the Steelers play a little bit of defense—especially against the run.

Denver's ground game was less productive than usual against the Patriots, though to give New England credit they've been among the league's best against the run since Richard Seymour returned to the lineup. That said, the Broncos' 96 rushing yards against the Pats matched their season low.

Will that stop Mike Shanahan from trying to run against the Steel Curtain? No. Despite the lack of yardage, Denver ran 32 times against the Pats and averages 35 rushing attempts per home game. A pair of Mike Anderson touchdown runs bumped their season total at Invesco to 15 rushing scores in nine games.

We expected to see more Bell last week, given his past success against the Pats and the fact that his outside speed seemed a better match for the New England defense; however, it was Anderson who received 19 carries and Bell just six. Again this week, Bell seems to be the better play, but we're hesitant to project anything more than a 50-50 split of the workload. And, like Bettis across the way, Anderson is the primary ball carrier when the Broncos approach the stripe.

And much like the Steelers will try to exploit Lynch creeping up towards the line of scrimmage, the Broncos will identify Troy Polamalu in the defensive game plan and react accordingly. Neither views coverage as their strong suit, so expect Plummer to use the old Bronco standby—the bootleg toss to the tight end—to direct plays away from the blitz and from Polamalu's tackling.

One area the Broncos may have an edge is in the deep passing game, where Smith and Ashley Lelie could exploit the Steelers' Cover 3 when Polamalu comes up for support. Expect Plummer to take a couple shots down the field, perhaps early on in order to excite the home crowd and get the Broncos on top.

Plummer's mobility could also negate Pittsburgh's frequent blitzes, though would anyone be that surprised if a few pops from Polamalu and Joey Porter suddenly turn "No Mistake Jake" back into the Plummer we all knew and loved back in his interception-slinging Arizona days?

Jason Elam connected twice last week—once from 50 yards out—and has missed just once in the thin air since the end of September. He certainly inspires confidence in his offense, as they know if they get in position the former Rainbow Warrior will knock it home.

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