Sunday Night Football Betting Preview

Week 17 NFL Betting Previews
St. Louis (5-10-0) at Dallas (9-6-0)
Sunday, January 01, 2006 8:30:00 PM EDT
Field - Turf of Texas Stadium
Dallas are 12.5 point favorites. The total for this game has been set at 43.
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(MySportsbook) At some point roughly 90 minutes before they kick off with the St. Louis Rams at Texas Stadium on Sunday night, the Dallas Cowboys will finally have a handle on what their regular season finale truly means.

The Cowboys enter Week 17 with life in the playoff race, but that life is not in their own hands. The likes of the Redskins (at the Eagles) and Panthers (at the Falcons), and to a lesser extent the Buccaneers (vs. the Saints) and Giants (at the Raiders on Saturday), will determine whether Dallas will be playing for something on Sunday, and Bill Parcells and company will be resigned to rooting for all of the above to lose New Year's weekend. The easiest route to the playoffs for Dallas would involve a win over the Rams and a loss for either Carolina or Washington.

To even get themselves into this predicament, the Cowboys had to come from behind to take down the Panthers, 24-20, on the road last week. A controversial roughing-the-kicker call in the waning moments helped Dallas score the winning touchdown.

The Rams, meanwhile, will be resigned to the goal of playing spoiler and ending a tumultuous season on a high note. St. Louis dropped to 5-10 with a 24-20 home loss to the woeful 49ers last Saturday, the fourth straight loss and sixth in seven games for the team.

SERIES HISTORY

The all-time regular season series between the Rams and Cowboys is knotted at nine games apiece. Dallas won the last such meeting between the clubs, 13-10, on the road during the 2002 season. The Rams were 27-23 winners when the teams last faced off in Dallas, way back in 1992, and are 2-0 in Big D since the Cowboys' last regular season home win over the then-Los Angeles Rams, which took place in 1981.

In addition to the regular season series, the teams have a storied postseason history, having split eight playoff meetings between 1973 and 1985. The most notable of these contests came following the 1975 and 1978 seasons, when Dallas routed the Rams in NFC Championship games.

Parcells is 3-5 in his career against the Rams, with all of those games dating back to his tenure with the New York Giants (1983-90). The record includes a playoff win for the Giants in the 1984 season, and a playoff loss against the Rams in 1989. Rams interim head coach Joe Vitt will be meeting both Parcells and the Cowboys for the first time in his current role.

RAMS OFFENSE VS. COWBOYS DEFENSE

Making his second consecutive start at quarterback and fifth of the year will be Jamie Martin (1119 passing yards, 5 TD, 7 INT), who completed 33-of-41 passes for 354 yards with a touchdowns and two interceptions in last week's loss to the 49ers. The 35-year-old Martin needs just 98 more passing yards to establish his single-season high in that category, eclipsing the 1,216 he threw for with the Rams in 2002. Top wideouts Torry Holt (98 receptions, 9 TD) and Isaac Bruce (35 receptions, 3 TD) both come off big days, with Holt catching 10 passes for 163 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers and Bruce contributing six grabs for 73 yards to the proceedings. Holt needs just two catches to log his second 100-reception season in three years. Third wideout Kevin Curtis (57 receptions, 6 TD), who is second on the team in all receiving categories behind Holt, was limited to two receptions for 15 yards against the Niners. Martin was sacked just once by San Francisco, but the Rams' line has allowed a bloated 44 sacks in 2005. St. Louis is tied for third in the league in passing offense (259.3 yards per game) as Week 17 begins.

The Rams' offensive scouting report will likely stress the importance of blocking Cowboys outside linebacker Demarcus Ware (55 tackles, 7 sacks), who emerged from a quiet period in his rookie season to tally nine tackles, three sacks, and three forced fumbles last week. No other Dallas player tallied a sack in the game, but defensive end Greg Ellis (34 tackles, 8 sacks) came up with one of the fumble recoveries. The Cowboys gave up 260 yards and two touchdowns through the air to the Panther passing game last Saturday, but limited Pro Bowl wideout Steve Smith to just one catch before he was ejected for making contact with an official late in the third quarter. Safety Roy Williams (79 tackles, 3 INT, 2.5 sacks) had Dallas' only interception of the day, and cornerback Terence Newman (53 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) ranked among team leaders with five tackles in the triumph. Parcells' squad now ranks 13th in the league in passing defense (195.7 yards per game).

The Rams' running game was completely bottled up by the 49ers last week, as the team managed just 44 ground yards including 28 on 16 carries for starter Steven Jackson (1046 rushing yards, 43 receptions, 10 TD). Jackson did manage to score his 10th touchdown of the season in the loss, and caught three passes for 21 yards out of the backfield. Also active in the defeat was veteran Marshall Faulk (267 rushing yards, 42 receptions, 1 TD), who had just five rushing yards on three carries but logged nine receptions for 44 yards in the matchup. Fullback Madison Hedgecock (7 receptions) had two catches for 25 yards against San Francisco. The Rams are 24th in the league in rushing offense (95.3 yards per game) at present.

Dallas did a solid job controlling the Carolina run last week, holding DeShaun Foster and company to just 71 ground yards for the day. Inside linebacker Bradie James (89 tackles, 2.5 sacks) was at the heart of the effort, recording seven tackles in the win, and fellow starting ILB Ryan Fowler (14 tackles) had three stops. In the trenches, nose tackle and top run-stuffer Jason Ferguson (32 tackles, 1 sack) contributed three tackles to the festivities. Dallas is a respectable 14th in NFL rushing defense (108.3 yards per game) as they head into Sunday night's contest.

COWBOYS OFFENSE VS. RAMS DEFENSE

Fresh off his strongest rushing day of the year is Cowboys running back Julius Jones (958 rushing yards, 5 TD, 33 receptions), who carried 34 times for 194 yards and two touchdowns against a Panthers defense that had formerly been very strong against the run in 2005. The unlikely effort put Jones within 42 yards of becoming the first Cowboy since Emmitt Smith in 2001 to record 1,000 yards in a season. Spelling Jones last week was rookie Marion Barber III (520 rushing yards, 5 TD, 16 receptions), who finished with six carries for 20 yards in the contest. Despite not posting a wealth of 100-yard games this season, Dallas ranks a solid 12th in NFL rushing offense (120.3 yards per game) as Week 17 begins.

Jones has a better-than average shot of running wild yet again, as he will be going up against a Rams defense that is tied for 30th in the league against the rush (141.4 yards per game) and was gutted by a couple of 49ers backups last Saturday. San Francisco running backs Maurice Hicks and Frank Gore combined for 177 yards and three touchdowns on just 20 carries in a winning effort, with St. Louis linebackers Pisa Tinoisamoa (86 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack), Trev Faulk (38 tackles), and Brandon Chillar (48 tackles) left in the dust more often than not. Tinoisamoa was able to record a team-high seven tackles in the contest. The Rams received some push from its trench unit last week, with tackles Damione Lewis (33 tackles, 1 sack) and Ryan Pickett (64 tackles, 2 sacks) combining for 11 tackles in the game.

Cowboys quarterback Drew Bledsoe (3397 passing yards, 22 TD, 15 INT) didn't have the best outing of his season against Carolina last week, but Bledsoe was able to play a large part in the team's top highlight of the day. The veteran's two-yard touchdown strike to wideout Terry Glenn in the game's final seconds gave Dallas the win and kept their playoff hopes afloat. For the game, Bledsoe was 15-of-23 passing for 209 yards with the touchdown and one interception, and was also sacked five times. Glenn (60 receptions, 7 TD) continued his strong season with four catches for 88 yards and the score, and fellow wideout Keyshawn Johnson (66 receptions, 6 TD) added six catches for 89 yards in the triumph. Tight end Jason Witten (62 receptions, 5 TD) will try to be more involved this week after a quiet day that saw him catch just one pass for nine yards. The Dallas line has given up 44 sacks of Bledsoe on the year, and the Cowboys are now 15th in the league in passing offense (208.5 yards per game).

St. Louis enters the Dallas game ranked 22nd in NFL passing defense (214 yards per game), and will attempt to place some pressure on Bledsoe one week after dumping 49ers rookie Alex Smith for five sacks. Ends Leonard Little (51 tackles, 7 sacks) and Anthony Hargrove (47 tackles, 4.5 sacks) will be at the heart of the pass-rushing effort, after combining for 2.5 sacks in last week's game. The duo will have to take some pressure off of a beleaguered Rams secondary that has managed just eight interceptions all season. Free safety Mike Furrey (47 tackles, 4 INT) has been the secondary's best playmaker this season, and strong safety Adam Archuleta (65 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT) and rookie cornerback Ronald Bartell (31 tackles) have had their moments as well. Archuleta ranked among team leaders with five tackles in the loss to the 49ers, and Bartell chipped in with four stops.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Whether the Cowboys have playoff motivation heading into this game or not, they should still roll over the Rams. Dallas has too many weapons offensively for the depleted St. Louis defense to contend with, and Martin and the Rams offense will have trouble moving consistently against a playmaking Dallas defense. Look for the Cowboys to gain their 10th win of the year in relatively easy fashion, no matter what it means.

Some trends to consider:
Minnesota is 1-9-0 OU in its last 10 away
Minnesota is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games against Baltimore
Minnesota is 4-8-0 ATS in its last 12 away games
Minnesota is 8-4-0 SU in its last 12 games after scoring less than 10 points
Baltimore is 5-0-0 ATS in its last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points
Baltimore is 8-1-0 SU in its last 9 games after being .5 to 3 point favorites
Baltimore is 4-1-0 SU in its last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points
Baltimore is 8-2-0 ATS in its last 10 games after being .5 to 3 point favorites

Announcers: Mike Patrick, Joe Theismann, Paul Maguire and Suzy Kolber
All-Time Series: Tied (13-13 -- 4-4 in playoffs)
Last Meeting: September 29, 2002 (Dallas, 13-10 at St. Louis)
Series Streak: Dallas has won two of the last three meetings.

Betting Situations

St. Louis most recently...

After a loss are 3-6
After playing 49ers are 6-3
When playing outside division are 4-6
When they are a dog on the road are 2-8
After out gaining opponent are 4-6
When playing in January are 8-2

Dallas most recently...

After a win are 3-7
After playing Panthers are 0-5
When playing outside division are 6-4
When they are favored at home are 6-4
After out gaining opponent are 3-6
When playing in January are 4-6

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