WEEK 11 EXPERT NFL TIPS

Chargers To Electrocute Bills . San Diego is coming off a bye week and is 10-1 ATS vs. teams with a losing record going back to last season. Their next victim ought to be Buffalo (+9.5) this week at home. Bills coming off 14-3 home win over KC after JP Losman filled in for the injured Kelly Holcomb. But the victory was hardly a thing of beauty as BUF put up just 209 yards total offense and Bills vulnerable 31st ranked rushing defense gave up 150 yards to Larry Johnson and Co. Word has it LaDainian Tomlinson will wear a bib all week in practice to soak in the pounds of drool coming from his mouth as he dreams about facing the Bills beleaguered rush defense.

Breaking Wind At Soldier Field . Chicago might be 6-3 SU (5-3-1 ATS) after their latest non-cover 17-9 win over San Francisco in a game that featured 50 MPH winds and a 108 yard TD return off a field goal attempt by the Bears Nate Vasher at the end of the second quarter. But alarming for Bears backers is that all six of their team's wins have come against opponents with losing records. CHI 0-2 SU vs. teams with winning records, including a 24-7 walloping at home against Cincinnati in week three. The Bengals loss might foreshadow a bad omen with Carolina (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS and 3-0 both SU and ATS L3) coming to town this week. Like the Orange Cats, the Panthers boast a terrific offense (4th highest scoring unit in NFL) and Chicago's 24th scoring unit might not be able to keep up and hang under the small impost (+2.5 at press).

Road Warriors . Forgive Indianapolis for not covering the monster 17.5-point spread in their latest 31-17 home win over the hapless Texans after their emotional win over the Patriots the week prior. They still remain a perfect 5-0 both SU and ATS on the trail with a road date at Cincy on deck. The Bengals are coming off a bye week but are 0-2 SU and 0-1-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning record. Both teams feature top rated offenses-the Bengals and Colts rank 10th and No.1 in scoring, respectively. And these teams are one and two in the NFL in points allowed with Indy securing the top spot again. The real difference here might be made in the trenches as INDY rank 10th against the run while CIN ranks just 24th in the same category.

Cardinals Make Endangered Species List . Arizona is a horrific 4-16 ATS their last twenty road games and disastrous 1-7 ATS vs. conference opponents after their latest embarrassing 29-21 loss at Detroit. This might spell trouble this week as they head to the Show Me State to take on the Rams. Totals alert: both teams are a combined 13-5 (o/u) this year. With these two teams playing it's time to cue the Paul Simon music, "Slip Sliding away . Slip, sliding away ."

Bucs Set Up To Walk Plank . Tampa might be ripe for a major letdown this week at Atlanta (-6) after a thrilling 36-35 upset win at home against Washington. Note that road dogs off a home win as an underdog are a back breaking 13-37 ATS the following week when both teams boast winning records. Further note, the Bucs are a miserable 2-10 ATS their last twelve road games. The Falcons should have plenty of extra motivation after a rare home loss, falling to the Packers 33-25 as an 8.5-point favorite. ATL 4-2 ATS after a loss going back to last season.

Oakland Ready to Raid Bookies??? Norv Turner is an incredible 14-3 ATS his last seventeen as a road underdog of +3.5 to +7. So don't write them off with against Washington (as most likely will) on the trail this Sunday after they were clobbered by Denver 31-17 at home. Raiders also 3-1 ATS away from the Coliseum (or 2-2 ATS depending on line you got when they played Kansas City at Arrowhead) and face a Skins team that has allowed 36-points in two of their last three games. In the other game during this stretch, WAS faced an Eagles team sans Terrell Owens.

49ers No Fools Gold At Home . 4th string QB Cody Picket completed just one measly pass the entire game (!!!) in the 49ers latest 17-9 road loss at Chicago. But 49ers easily covered as a 13-point underdog and are actually 3-2 ATS at home with Seattle (-11.5) coming to town this week. The problem is that Seattle is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS their last five and keeps avoiding the banana peel most of us have expected them to slip on. In a similar match-up two weeks ago, Seabirds dominated Cardinals 33-19 as 4.5-point road chalk.

Just the Facts Ma'am . Home favorites are now 54-44 ATS on the season while road favorites are also profitable at 21-16 ATS. In sum, favorites overall are a staggering 76-60 ATS. Breaking down this further we find that favorites of -3 or less are a ridiculous 41-23 ATS! Most notably, home favorites of -3 or less check in at 28-17 ATS while road favorites of a field goal or less stand at 12-7 ATS.