SEC CONFERENCE PREVIEWS

By: Chris, the Impaler OF DocsSports (Special to Wageronfootball.com)
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alabama crimson tide - 2005 SEC Previews

Handicappers Predictions - Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3, 5-3)

After posting a 30-31 record in his tenure at 'Bama, Mike Shula needs to show results or risk being fired after the season. In a way, the Crimson Tide had been a victim of bad luck and giving games away last year. This year everything starts at quarterback, where Brodie Croyle will attempt to play a full season without being injured. As Croyle developed and began looking more confident last year he went down three games into the 2004 season. The question marks start with the depth chart as well as with the Crimson Tide facing youth and inexperience behind all those experienced returning starters. But this year will be characterized by narrowly winning rather than losing important games at home.

Strengths: QB Brodie Croyle (if he stays healthy) completed 44-of-66 passes (67 percent) for 534 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions before he went down in the Western Carolina game. Another strength for Alabama is their defense. Mark Anderson returns on defense to give the Tide a pass-rushing threat while Wallace Gilberry appears well prepared to replace Todd Bates at the other side. The Tide also returns its five best players in the secondary, left by three seniors - RCB Anthony Madison, FS Roman Harper and SS Charlie Peprah. Tough conference games will be played at home this year as Florida, Tennessee, LSU and Arkansas all come to Tuscaloosa.

Weakness: Two returning OL starters senior center JB Closner and junior right tackle Kyle Tatum. The 'Tide have to find three offensive line positions with left tackle Wesley Britt and left guard Evan Mathis, as well as right guard Danny Martz going to the NFL. Their rushing game is comprised of three walk-ons.
Best Bet: Oct.15, 2005 vs. Mississippi Rebels. The Crimson Tide have gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games against the Rebels.

Favorable Line Loser: Nov. 5, 2005 vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Crimson Tide are veritable cash burners at Davis Wade Stadium going an abysmal 4-11 against the number in the past 15 games.

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MISSISSIPPI REBELS - 2005 SEC Preview

Handicappers Predictions - Mississippi Rebels (6-5, 4-4)

It is amazing what a QB with the last name Manning can do for your program. After last season, it is hard to fathom that the Rebels shared the SEC West Title in 2003 with eventual National Champions LSU. But they did, thanks in no small part to the play of Eli Manning. Now, new 'Ole Miss' HC Ed Orgeron needs to make a decision on who will start at QB for the Rebels if he doesn't want to make the same mistakes that Cutliff did. Cutliff played dueling quarterbacks lat year with Lane, Flatt and Spurlock and the Rebels ended up a woeful 4-7. This year Orgeron brings the mantle of best defensive coordinator in the country from his seven years at USC to Ole Miss and that should change things in a hurry. Last year under Cutliff, the Rebels' defense was ninth in the SEC. A winning record and a shot at a minor bowl don't seem like unreasonable expectations in Oxford this year.

Strengths: Ole Miss got a quality HC in USC defensive coordinator Ed Orgeron to replace the indecisive Cutliff. The Rebels are deep at RB with Vashon Pearson looking at a breakout season and three other players that had 50 touches or more last year. Ole Miss has quality players such as OT Tre' Stallings, LB Patrick Williams, DT McKinley Boykin, LB Kelvin Robinson and WR Mike Espy.

Weakness: A new head coach won't make a tangible difference unless they can find a consistent QB. The QB position is the main weakness now for the Rebels. Since Eli Manning left, the Rebels spent all last year shifting QBs and that did not work.

Best Bet: Oct. 22, 2005 vs. Kentucky. The Rebels will host a beleaguered Kentucky team that should give the Rebels another conference win.

Favorable Line Loser: Sept. 17, 2005 vs. Vanderbilt Commodores. The underdog is 6-0 ATS grabbing the points in the last six consecutive match-ups.

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S. CAROLINA GAMECOCKS - 2005 SEC Preview

NCAA Handicappers Predictions - South Carolina Gamecocks (6-5, 3-5)

A plaque in Spurrier's new office at South Carolina reads: "Why Not Us?" Well there are several reasons and most of them begin with the fact that Spurrier will need a year or two to recruit players to come play for him in Colombia. South Carolina returns 12 starters (the fewest in the SEC) and 40 letterman from last year's 6-5 team. With the off-field problems this year (11 current and former players arrested) and the not ready for Cock-N-Shoot QBs and WRs, Spurrier will have to remain patient in his inaugural year as a Gamecock. Looking at the Cock's schedule, Spurrier has his work cut out for him with non-division games against Alabama, at Auburn and at Arkansas with a very tough non-conference game when they host Clemson to end the regular season.

Strengths: At this point there are very few for the Gamecocks. Steve Spurrier automatically adds strength to South Carolina with his ability to recruit players. In the short time he has been at South Carolina he's already recruited a Top-25 class. We'll see if Spurrier's uncanny ability for taking average quarterbacks and turning them into stars at Florida will continue at South Carolina. Another strength is their Thursday night season opener against Central Florida on Sept. 1.

Weakness: Spurrier's offense requires talent at the QB position which is definitely lacking for the Gamecocks. The 'Cocks are also starting over at tailback without Demetris Summers, who was kicked of the team after flunking a drug test. Without Summers, the Gamecocks will turn to junior Cory Boyd while senior Daccus Turman plays both fullback and tailback.

Best Bet: Nov. 11, 2005 vs. Clemson. The 'Cocks last game of the season the underdog has cashed a winning ticket eight of the last 12 games.

Favorable Line Loser: Sept. 1, 2005 vs. UCF. South Carolina is 2-8 against the spread as home favorites since 2003.

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ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS - 2005 SEC Preview

NCAA Predictions - Arkansas Razorbacks (5-6, 3-5)

Nothing says out of conference schedule love like the Razorbacks traveling to the USC Trojans on Sept.17. As far as out of conference match ups in the SEC, Georgia gets Georgia Southern, Florida gets Eastern Michigan, South Carolina gets Central Florida and the Razorbacks get USC? How does that work out? Indeed, Arkansas' schedule does not get any easier this year with road games at Alabama, LSU and Georgia. HC Houston Nutt's chances of a winning record seem dubious indeed and obviously depend upon 18 returning starters. New defensive coordinator Reggie Herring changed the defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3 scheme, but has had to move around at least eleven players to fit into his aggressive new defense. This is a rebuilding year at Arkansas since the Razorbacks lost 18 starters and 29 lettermen from its 2003 team and six starters from last year. 2004 was the Razorbacks first losing season since 1997. QB Matt Jones is going to be tough to replace, but Nutt needs to in a hurry and Sophomore Robert Johnson will most likely get the call.

Strengths: While these are few and far between for the Razorbacks, Arkansas wide receiver Marcus Monk, offensive tackle Zac Tubbs and linebacker Pierre Brown are all strengths for Houston Nutt.

Weakness: The 2005 road schedule for the Razorbacks and their defense. The Hogs spent the spring learning a new system and undergoing several personnel changes while the quarterback situation remained uncertain. Arkansas' biggest question mark comes at quarterback, where someone must replace four-year starter Matt Jones.

Best Bet: Nov. 5, 2005 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks. The favorite has covered 9 of 12 games against the spread.

Favorable Line Loser: Sept. 10, 2005 vs. Vanderbilt Commodores. The Commodores come to Arkansas and I expect Jay Cutler to air it out.

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VANDERBILT COMMODORES - 2005 SEC Preview

College Football Predictions - Vanderbilt Commodores (3-8, 1-7)

Bobby Johnson's Commodores are still reeling from the untimely death of starting RB Kwane Doster, who was murdered in his hometown of Tampa last December. Now, the Commodores find themselves starting over since they lost five starters on both sides of the ball. Even worse, Vandy must replace its two best offensive line (Justin Geisinger and Brian Kovolisky) and three defensive line starters. The best news on offense is the return of QB Jay Cutler, a three-year starter who remains Vandy's best chance to move the ball because of his ability to make plays with his arm and legs. The Commodores can also count on backup Steven Bright, who has seen playing time in each of the past two seasons. But it is likely that Vandy will experience more of the same small school in a big conference treatment and play whipping boy to the usual cast of SEC and out of conference heavies.

Strengths: Players such as QB Jay Cutler and LB Moses Osemwegie, but unfortunately the Commodores don't have enough of those players. Jay Cutler is back for his senior year and could become the school's all-time leading passer if he can throw for more than 2,360 yards. Cutler can make plays with his arm (10/5 TD-INT LY) and legs (349 rushing yards, 6 TDs) and has a play-making WR in Erik Davis.

Weakness: Playing in the SEC and losing five starters on both sides of the ball. Even worse, Vandy must replace its two best offensive line and three defensive line starters. The Commodores must replace a starting tailback and a team leader with the death of Kwane Doster.

Best Bet: Sept. 18, 2004 at Kentucky. I suspect Kentucky will be the favorite, but since 1985, Vanderbilt is 14-6 ATS versus Kentucky.

Favorable Line Loser: Oct. 1, 2005 vs MTSU. One of the few games that the Commodores will be favored, but they might not cover.

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MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS - SEC Preview

NCAA Handicapping Predictions - Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-9, 1-7)

Sylvester Croom's Bulldogs return 18 starters and 46 lettermen but only 12 fourth- and fifth-year seniors. Even though eight starters returned on defense this year, six players listed as starters on the spring depth chart changed positions at the coaches’ request. Last year the Bulldogs played with only 13 seniors. So second-year Mississippi State coach Sylvester Croom has a lot of work in remedying a program that has only won 11 games in the past four years and went 3-8 last year. Last year was just plain weird for the Bulldogs as they lost to Maine 9-7 at home last September, but beat Florida 38-31! I see the Bulldogs as still a few years away from a winning record. This year I see more of the same as Croom starts to get Mississippi State's program off the ground.

Strengths: RB Jerious Norwood rushed for 1,050 yards and seven touchdowns last year, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Nine starters return on offense but that doesn't necessarily mean the Bulldogs are ready to become a dominant offensive power in the SEC, but ball control certainly helps win games.

Weakness: For one thing, their biggest question mark starts with an offensive line that is especially weak at the tackles. Losing safety Darrell Williams quickly follows this weakness. Williams was kicked off the team if February for violating team rules. Due to NCAA probation and penalties for rules violations committed under former coach Jackie Sherrill and his staff, Mississippi State lost four scholarships for the 2005-06 and 2006-07 school years. This year the Bulldogs play the Bulldogs rather than the Commodores.

Best Bet: Nov. 19, 2005 at Arkansas. The underdog has covered 11 of the last 13 games in this tilt.

Favorable Line Loser: Oct.22, 2005 vs. Houston. Picked to finish second in Conference USA, the Cougars are better than advertised with QB Kolb who in 2004 tossed the pigskin for 2,766 yards and 11 touchdowns on 193-of-359 passing.

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kentucky wildcats - 2005/06 SEC Preview

College Football Picks - Kentucky Wildcats (1-10, 0-8)

This year Rich Brooks' Wildcats have switched from a 3-4 defense the past two seasons to 4-3 defensive scheme; perhaps they should have switched to Division 1-AA. Last year Kentucky allowed 225.2 rushing yards per game last season and were ranked 112th among 117 NCAA Division I-A teams. Surprisingly, while most of Brooks' coordinators were either fired or flew the coup defensive coordinator Mike Archer, who had a chance to jump to the NFL, stayed-and that is a good thing! The Wildcats have been hit hard by NCAA probation and sanctions and enters the 2005 season on the shoulders of a 6-17 record over the past two years. In all likelihood, Rich Brooks is a lame duck coach who will be looking for a job come December (unless he can miraculously produce a winning record-he won't-this year). In his quest, Brooks returns 14 starters and 47 lettermen, which should be enough to beat Idaho State in their home opener. Perhaps. Gamblers should note that despite the 1-4 SU record against the SEC East last year, the Wildcats' were 4-1 ATS.

Strengths: The receiving corps is the deepest and most competitive position on the roster. The Wildcats return experienced receivers Tommy Cook and Keenan Burton back from injuries that forced them to miss the 2004 seasons. However, there is precious little else to improve on last year's 2-9 overall record.

Weakness: The offensive line remains Kentucky's biggest offensive concern. Three starters return -- sophomore left tackle Aaron Miller, senior center Matt McCutchan, and junior right tackle Hayden Lane - but the coaches have a lot of work to do to get Trai Williams, Micah Jones, Cody Morehead and junior-college transfers Fatu Turituri and Ernie Palayo ready to play in the SEC.

Best Bet: None.

Favorable Line Loser: Sept. 10, 2005 vs. Idaho State. This could be the only game the Wildcats win this year, but they most likely won't cover the double digit spread.

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Overall Expectations:

This is an unusual year in the SEC with so many teams changing not only quarterbacks but head coaches as well and some teams changing both. How these new coaches adjust to their new conferences and how their quarterbacks play will give a great indication about the success of failure of the team. We'll monitor these teams with new head coaches, teams that are most likely poised to do better than last year. By the same token, I wouldn't expect too much either. South Carolina hiring Steve Spurrier has already been a boon for the AIS factor (asses in seats) as has Urban Meyer's hiring been a shot in the arm for Gator Nation, but neither of these teams has yet to play a game. I am excited to keep an eye on the Rebels and LSU to see how they will do with their new coaches implementing a new philosophy to their respective programs.

Teams like Tennessee, Auburn, LSU and Georgia, which play tough conferences schedules, need to be ready to fight each other for the right to play in Atlanta. An early loss at LSU could shatter the Vols chance for a spot in Rose Bowl. Meanwhile, Arkansas will have an enormous non-conference road test on Sept. 17 when they travel to USC (the Trojans and not the Gamecocks). Alabama will remember how they gave away a win against Tennessee last season losing 17-13. And finally, can Auburn possibly be half as good as they were last year after losing a record four offensive "hands" starters to the first round of the NFL draft? Alabama may be the most improved team this year thanks to having their toughest conference games played at Bryant Denny Stadium, but their schedule is very tough this season and much relies on their QB Brodie Croyle.

In conclusion, if Tennessee and LSU don't live up to my expectations, and even if they do, this could be one of the tightest races in the SEC in quite some time. The strong teams in the conference like Tennessee and Georgia have tough SEC road schedules. Whereas, teams like Alabama and Auburn have favorable conference games at home. I see the strongest teams in the SEC winning all their non-conference games while Kentucky will have a hard enough time winning one game. Therefore, a 6-2 conference record may put you in a tie for second place. This is going to be a very exciting year in the SEC and I can't wait to see how the new SEC head coaches and QBs do in 2005.

--by Chris, the Impaler

05-06 SEC Conference Previews: « Back · 1 · 2

Doc's Sports are well known Handicapping gurus. They are documented members of The Professional Handicappers League. Read more of their articles and get their premium plays here.