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Football Picks: By Robert Ferringo - Docs NFL Picks
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Ferringo
NFL Report -- Not much is Certain After Week
And the pendulum swings.
Slightly less than one quarter of the
National Football League season is over and done with.
So I ask you this: would you ever say a game has been
decided before the end of the first quarter? Since
the answer is clearly no, then why are people getting
so excited/spastic/manic/depressed after just four
games?
Just seven short days after everyone
was conceding New England’s third consecutive
Super Bowl title, people are throwing black roses
on their grave. The Chargers, dismissed at 0-2, are
now The Hot Team. And nowhere is the league’s
dichotomy as extreme as in the Big Apple. There the
Giants have the league’s best offense and are
the toast of the town while the Jets have the league’s
worst offense and have left all their Super Bowl talk
in the rear view.
So what does all of this prove to us?
Well, nothing actually.
Football reflects the world that we
live in – chaotic, unpredictable, nonsensical.
But underneath there is an undercurrent of certainty
and structure. The same governing laws that apply
to your favorite teams also apply to your bank account.
Not the least of which is this: it’s still early.
If you’re off to a fast start, good job but
don’t get too cocky. If you haven’t had
the type of beginning to your season that you expected
and you’re account is dwindling, stay vigilant
and have no fear. Soon enough, the pendulum will swing
again.
Here are my random thoughts
about Week 4:
* Fourth quarter,
fourth-and-inches for Buffalo at the New Orleans/San
Antonio 48-yard line. The Bills trail 13-6 and Kelly
Holcomb could just fall forward for the first down
to keep Hope alive. Instead, Buffalo attempts a run
up the gut with Willis McGahee - going backwards to
go forward. Saints safety Dwight Smith came flying
through the line like an ICBM, untouched, and stoned
McGahee. Game. Set. Match.
Yes, J.P. Losman is terrible. I mean,
he’s a rookie. Rookie QB’s are terrible
like freshman are dorks. However, the reason that
the Bills offense has been so inconsistent over the
past three years is because their offensive line has
been atrocious. Over that time they’ve done
nothing to upgrade, and if they can’t manage
a couple of inches against a worn out defensive line
then they’re just about useless.
* The winning team’s margin of
victory over each week of this season has been 12.7,
14.4, 10.6, and 11.2, respectively. That doesn’t
look like parity to me. So far only 27 of a possible
60 games have been decided by a single-digit margin.
Conversely, 14 of those 60 contests -- nearly one-quarter
-- have been decided by 20 points or more.
* “Mad Mike” Martz proved
once again that he is as reckless as a college kid
on Two-For-One Night. His Rams threw the ball an absurd
62 times on Sunday in their 44-24 loss to the Giants.
It was a prideful move by the architect of the once-mighty
Rams offense. But like the Greek or Roman ruins, the
St. Louis offense is just the shadow of its former
self. All Martz’s pass-happy attack did was
leave a leaky defense vulnerable to a new wave of
in the form of Eli Manning and the Giants.
* On Sunday night against Arizona,
the 49ers put on one of the worst offensive displays
I think I’ve ever seen. And I’m a Bears
fan. They crossed midfield on only two occasions –
the furthest they got was the Arizona 42 – and
their 14 points were courtesy of two defensive scores.
The Niners finished with just 168 total yards on 50
plays, had five fumbles (three lost) and an interception,
and in the fourth quarter they had drives of -13,
5, -7, and 21 yards. And yes, they represented us
in another country.
* I think it’s going to be a
lot of fun once Marcus Vick gets into the NFL. At
that point, 12.5 percent of the quarterbacks in the
league will be either a Vick or a Manning. I pose
these questions to you:<br>
Which of those four QB’s would you pay the most
money to watch play? <br>
Which one of those QB’s would you want to lead
your team in a game for your soul?<br>
Which QB do you think will be considered the best
20 years from now?
It’s a matter of opinion, but
your answers to those questions say a lot about your
views on the game.
* On Friday evening I signed the contract
for my first home, which led to the following exchange
between me and my fiancé:
Sara: “Where do you want to go
for dinner?”
Me: “I just spent $170,000. I
think I’ll have a bowl of cereal.”
* The shame of Week
4 is that when people look back on it no one will
ever remember that Joey Harrington led a brilliant,
potentially career-altering, 93-yard drive, in an
undefeated opponent’s lair, which should have
resulted in the game-winning touchdown. Instead, the
Lions get shafted on a replay call, lose the game,
and are left again questioning their organization
and their quarterback.
The Detroit Free Press reported that
the Lions’ receivers are close to mutiny, and
that Charles Rogers was just suspended for four games
(substance abuse). Detroit’s entire season may
have been decided, incorrectly, by a man in a funny,
striped shirt.
* I really can’t decide which
is a bigger disaster/fraud right now: the Minnesota
Vikings or the Republican Party.
In a related note, my beloved Bears
(1-2) seized control of first place in the NFC North
while on the bye week. Green Bay, at 0-4, is only
two games out of the top spot. Wow.
* The Falcons are just bludgeoning
people. Against the Vikings on Sunday they ran the
ball 41 times for 285 yards and a 7.0 yard-per-carry
average. That’s right; they averaged seven yards
every time they ran the ball. Of their 41 runs only
two – a T.J. Duckett no gain and Matt Schaub’s
kneel down to end the game – failed to gain
positive yardage. That’s how you win football
games.
* Favorites were 11-3 SU on Sunday,
with only Denver, Kansas City and New England losing.
However, the favorites were only 8-6 ATS. Tennessee
was the only home underdog, and they got thrashed
by Indianapolis.
* Denver, Philadelphia, Arizona and
Tampa Bay were the only four teams to manage a touchdown
out of their two-minute offense right before the half.
With the exception of the Broncos (who were only up
7-0), each team was trailing before that drive. The
momentum carried on into the second half, and all
four ended up winning.
* Yes! We have another member of the
Gus Frerotte Celebration Hall of Fame! San Diego ace
Jake Peavy broke a rib while celebrating the Padres’
divisional title last week. He’s done for the
postseason, but stuck around long enough to get lit
up for eight runs by the Cardinals. Priceless.
* Dagger-Through-The-Heart Play of
the Week: With Buffalo trailing 13-6 and under 10
seconds left in the half, Bills return man Terrence
McGee fielded a kickoff and proceeded to put on as
impressive an athletic display as you will ever see.
He juked and jived at least seven Saints, and had
a clear path to the end zone for the go-ahead score.
But then it happened. McGee’s
“convoy” of blockers didn’t get
out of his way. McGee should have held up or cut the
run back away from the one New Orleans defender within
50 yards. McGee shouldn’t have jumped for the
end zone from the 10-yard line. McGee should have
pitched the ball when he realized he was falling.
These are all the thoughts going through my head as
I saw my cover go bye-bye. I had the Over teased down
to 26.5 and that touchdown and extra point would have
meant Cover City. Nope. Instead, the final was 19-7
and a loss.
* Everyone is always talking about
how “old school” Bill Parcells is. If
that’s so true, then why was he throwing the
ball – twice – when inside an opponent’s
five-yard line with a chance to win a road game? Maybe
it was the sheer girth of the Oakland interior lineman
– Warren Sapp, Ted Washington and Ed Jasper
average about 330 pounds – that scared him away
from running the ball. On the day they held the Cowboys
running attack to 32 carries for 116 yards.
* Phenomenal win on the road for Philadelphia.
The Eagles were down 24-6, and then erupted for 31
unanswered points (taking full advantage of K.C.’s
bumbling offense and shaky defense) in one of the
toughest venues in the NFL. That win could be a turning
point for both team’s season.
In the second half of his last two
games, Donovan McNabb has completed 69 percent of
his passes for an average of 253 yards and two touchdowns.
Those numbers represent a solid day’s work for
most QB’s. That’s what a hobbled McNabb
is averaging in the final 30 minutes.
* A close second for the Dagger Play
of the Week was Josh Brown ringing the post on a potentially
game-winning 47-yard field goal against Washington.
Kelly Herndon set up the play with an interception,
but during the return Herndon made it to the Washington
29 before backtracking and getting tackled at the
Skins’ 33. D’oh!
Then, after a three-yard gain on first
down with 45 seconds to play and one timeout, Mike
Holmgren decided he was close enough. He called one
more vanilla run up the middle (no gain) with about
15 seconds left, and then used his final timeout with
just seconds to play. Considering that Brown’s
kick missed by only a foot or so, I wonder if Holmgren
wishes he had actually tried to pick up a few more
yards. I mean, a 47-yarder isn’t exactly a chip
shot.
* Has it really been 11 years since
Reality Bites came out? I watched the movie last week,
and I had forgotten how good it is. If a movie’s
jokes are still funny, and themes still seamlessly
applicable to society over a decade after it was first
released, you know it was a good flick.
My favorite line from that movie:
““(Life) is just a random lottery of meaningless
tragedies and narrow escapes.”
Questions or comments for Robert? e-mail [email protected]
--By Robert Ferringo
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NFL
Football Picks By Robert Ferringo - Docs NFL Picks
Doc's Sports are well
known Handicapping gurus. They are documented members
of The Professional Handicappers League. Read more
of their articles and
get
their premium plays here.
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