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(Saturday, December 31st)
Fiesta Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Brady Quinn vs. Troy Smith
Brady Quinn (330 ypg, 64.9%, 32/7) is quite
simply the leading passer in the storied history
of Notre Dame football. He owns every conceiveable
season and career passing mark which he he will
either surpass or add on to depending on whether
he comes out early. He is the only Fighting
Irish quarterback to throw for 8000 yards and
has thrown for touchdowns in seventeen consecutive
games. Quinn's 162.9 passing rating puts him
at fourth behind Vince Young, Brian Brohm, and
drew Olsen while his 32 TDs is second behind
Hawaii's Colt Brennan's 35.
Troy Smith (194 ypg, 62.2%, 14/4) started only
nine game taking over from Justin Zwick for
the most part in the Texas game. While not having
the gaudy numbers that Quinn has, Smith can
beat you with his feet (640 yds, 5.2 ypc, 11
TDs) and is always a threat to run. Smith has
also become the emotional leader of this club
and is generally counted on to ignite things
for the Buckeyes when the going gets tough.
Allen's Analysis: Tough call as both players
bring different dates to the party. Quinn is
classic drop back passer with big time weaponry
in WR's Samardzija (71, 16.8, 15) and Stovall
(60, 17.0, 11) and a 1000 yard rusher out of
the backfield with Darius Walker (1181, 4.7
ypc, 6). Smith can run and has plenty of options
himself in Antonio Pittman (1222, 5.7 ypc, 6)
and Santonio Holmes (48, 17.8 ypc, 10). Buckeyes
could hold the wildcard in ultra-dangerous return
man Ted Ginn Jr and an opportunistic turnover
creating defense spearheaded by AJ Hawk.
BCS Bowl Picks - Advantage: Push
Sugar Bowl
West Virginia vs. Georgia
Pat White vs. DJ Shockley
Don't be misled by the numbers of true freshman
Pat White (64.3 ypg, 54%, 7/5), the latest and
possibly the best in a long line of run first
Mountaineer quarterbacks. White does his damage
on the ground (875, 8.1 ypc, 7TDs) and is lightnight
fast. White turned down a huge signing bonus
with the Angels to pursue football and seems
focused. He'll throw the ball more poficiently
as his career progresses but for now he's done
an admirable job minimizing mistakes and executing
the WVU offensive game plan.
DJ Shockley (210 ypg, 55%, 21/6) is a fifth
year senior that stuck things out serving a
four year apprenticeship under David Green.
Shockley burst on the scene with a monster 5
TD opening game and never looked back. Sadly,
Shockley was unable to go in Geogia's 14-10
loss at Florida and not 100% the following week
against Auburn. Shockley showed true leadership
in guiding Dawgs to final drive win in Tech
game and nearly flawless in demolition of LSU
in SEC championship game.
Allen's analysis: It will be interesting to
see how White does when facing a premier SEC
rush defense that will most likely stack the
box. Vesus similar Virginia Tech defense White
was held to just 44 yards on 11 carries as Mounties
could manage just 11 first-downs and 21 minutes
time of possession. Shockley is certainly more
experienced and has faced much better over the
course of the year. The more diversified Georgia
offense presents him with more options to operate.
BCS Bowl Picks - Advantage: Shockley
Orange Bowl
Penn State vs. Florida State
Micheal Robinson vs. Drew Weatherford
Micheal Robinson (191 ypg, 52%, 16/9) is also
a duel threat that can hurt you with the run
(785, 5.4 ypc, 11 TDs). Robinson is late developing
after spending time backing up Zack Mills and
also being used at TB and WR. Robinson has adequate
weaponry with TB Tony Hunt (1075 yds, 6.0 ypc,
6) and WR Deon Butler (678, 18.8 ypc, 9). The
Nittany Lion offense improved greatly in the
second half and is dangerous from anywhere on
the field.
The jury is still out on true freshman Drew
Weatherford (247 ypg, 59%, 17/17). Weatherford
was put in tough spot with the graduation of
Chris Rix and the off the field problems of
incumbant Wyatt Sexton. Weatherford looked green
if not inept in several games but still managed
to get wins when it counted, most notably Miami
and Virginia Tech. In DW's defense, the FSU
OL was decimated with injuries which never allowed
the Seminole offense to get untracked.
Allen's analysis: Robinson clearly got better
as the season progressed. One can only wonder
if Penn State had got that final stop against
Michigan. Weatherford ran for his life most
of the year but was not able to come up with
much during the first 3-game FSU losing streak
in 25 years. Weatherford has two pro-calibre
RB's in Booker and Washington but their production
also lacked consistency and was far less than
anticipated so perhaps problems do rest with
beat up offensive line.
BCS Bowl Picks - Advantage: Robinson
Rose Bowl
Texas vs. USC
Vince Young vs. Matt Leinart
Vince Young (231 ypg, 65%, 26/10) suprisingly
led the nation in passing efficiency despite
having nothing close the premier wide receivers
he's had in the past. Young has always been
a threat to run (793, 6.2 ypc, 9) and saved
the Longhorns bacon on several occasions with
his legs. Young has also established himself
as a leader, pretty much willing Texas to victory
at Ohio State. Cedric Benson is gone but Jammal
Charles (844, 7.4, 11), Ramonce Taylor (5-1,
7.0, 11) and Henry Melton (432, 5.0, 10) were
more than adequate replacements by committee.
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Matt Leinart's (288, 65%, 27/7) credentials
speak for themselves. 37-1 as a starter with
34 straight wins, a Heisman, and two National
Championships. Leinart doesn't run much but
can get you that key yard (Notre Dame) when
he has to. In many ways I believe Leinart is
underappreciated because of his hollywood lifestyle,
one-class semester ciriculum (ballroom dancing),
and high-profile supporting cast of Bush, Jarret,
and White. Win or lose here, his legacy is complete.
Allen's analysis: It will ultimately fall on
Vince Young to win this game for Texas. At this
point, Young has two wins of note not counting
the Oklahoma State turnarounds. Michigan in
last year's Rose Bowl and the Ohio State game
earlier this year. We all know Mack Brown's
big game history. Leinart has come thru time
after time. His performances in his two previous
National Championship games were dominant. He's
been tested this year far more than Young, winning
at Notre Dame and guiding the Trojans back from
several second half double-digit deficits.
BCS Bowl Picks - Advantage: Slightest
of edges to Leinart
Jeff Allen is a documented member of The Professional
Handicappers League.
Read more of his articles and get his premium
plays here.
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