WEEK 14 NFL WAGER

NFL GAMEDAY WAGER

Sportsbooks wary as the Indianapolis juggernaut steamrolls the NFL

December 8th, 2005

By Jason Brough
BodogNation Contributing Writer

Not only are the Indianapolis Colts baffling their opponents, they’re making life extremely difficult for football oddsmakers. Approaching Week 14 of the NFL schedule, undefeated Indianapolis is 9-3 against the spread overall and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games. It seems oddsmakers can’t set a high enough spread for the Colts to beat – great news for many bettors, terrible for sportsbooks.

Riding a high are the long-suffering “squares”, the casual bettors with the much-maligned tendency to back favorites at all costs. Knowing this tendency, sportsbooks have long practiced the art of shading favorites. In other words, making teams like the Colts tougher to win with by upping the number of points they need to cover the spread. Clearly, however, the linesmakers haven’t shaded enough this year, and the squares have cleaned up.

As a result, sportsbooks have been hit hard.

“Recent wins against the Pats, Bengals and Steelers, combined with media hype over being undefeated, have created a monster,” notes the Bodog Sportsbook management team.

To put the “monster” in perspective, assuming a standard –110 moneyline, any bettor that has made a weekly wager of $100 on the Colts to cover has profited to the tune of $519 this year. Not to mention, with all that media attention – with many experts proclaiming the 2005 Colts as potentially the greatest team ever – there have been countless more bettors applying the above strategy than those who have been betting on Peyton Manning and Co. to fail.

Though difficult to pinpoint exactly, the damage done by the Colts to sportsbooks worldwide totals tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars. Worse still for bet-takers, it doesn’t appear they will be facing less exposure anytime soon. For this Sunday’s game between Indianapolis and Jacksonville, Bodog says early action has been heavily behind the Colts, despite the Colts opening as touchdown-plus favorites on the road versus the 9-3 Jaguars.

Nevertheless, for those who have been around the sports betting industry for a few years, streaking teams are nothing new. “We’ve seen it before and we’ll see it again. We just keep putting a line up that we think will balance the action. Indianapolis doesn’t really change our strategy much,” says the Bodog Sportsbook management team.

To illustrate, they point to the 2003 Kansas City Chiefs, a team that started 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS. “The media piles on, the novice bettor jumps on board, the line goes up and if the price gets high enough the pros jump on the other side just based on the value,” Bodog says.

And in the case of Kansas City in 2003, the pros, along with the sportsbooks, ultimately made out like bandits, as the Chiefs lost their 10th game to the Cincinnati Bengals and went on to finish the regular season 4-3 straight up and 2-5 ATS. Completing the collapse, the Chiefs lost as favorites to the Colts in the first round of the playoffs.

As for how professional gamblers are looking at this year’s Colts, Bodog oddsmaker Todd Allen notes, “The wiseguys have been playing on the underdog when the spread has been large, but seem to stay away when it’s a small spread. It doesn’t seem like the syndicates are playing on these games, but there is definitely sharp action on the dog when the spread is over 12.”

He also stresses the difference between those who set the NFL odds and those who actually take the bets. “We’re not oddsmakers, we’re book managers. We don’t come out with the original line like the oddsmakers do; we adjust our line to the action that is coming in and manage the risk. So, we may move the line before other books do if we think our client base will hit us hard on the Colts, just in order to stay ahead of the curve,” Allen says.

Perhaps one saving grace for the sportsbooks has been the performance of Indy against the total. Just as the squares lean toward backing favorites, they also typically bet on the over, and that has been a less successful strategy when it comes to the Colts.

Indianapolis has gone over the total in just five of its 12 games this year, no doubt thanks to Tony Dungy’s improved defense. While to no one’s surprise the Colts are leading the NFL in scoring – their offense is averaging 30.5 points per game – they’re also second best so far at keeping opponents off the scoreboard, allowing just 13.5 points per game.

In contrast, the 2004 Colts went over the total in 11 of 16 games. Like this year, they boasted the league’s top offense, scoring 32.6 points per game. However, they gave up over a touchdown more per game on defense, allowing opponents to average 21.9 points.

 

If the Colts can win their next four games, they’ll be the first team since the 1972 Miami Dolphins to go undefeated in the regular season. Even more impressive for Indianapolis, the Dolphins only had to win 14 games to attain perfection; the Colts would do them two better with a record of 16-0.

Accordingly, most sportsbooks are posting less than even odds – 2/3 at the Bodog Sportsbook – that Indianapolis will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in Detroit as Super Bowl XL champions in February. But while the Colts’ triumphs so far have been frustrating for sportsbooks, it’s business as usual for the large operations that can endure a prolonged dry spell.

As Allen matter-of-factly puts it, if the Colts make the Super Bowl, “It’s tough to say if it would be good or bad for us, as all we can do is try to put up a fair line that will split the action.”

Unbeatable Numbers

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