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Own Rob Gillespie will appear here with his weekly
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Rob Gillespie, President of Bodog
Sportsbook, Casino and Poker, has been involved
in sports wagering and gambling since he was a young
child. Whether it was playing five-card stud with
his dad's Navy buddies or running a sportsbook out
of his high school locker, Gillespie has always
had a knack for the gambling game.
Following last weekend's thrilling victory for
Jeff Gordon at the Daytona 500, and Adam Scott's
rain-wrecked sudden death win at the Nissan Open,
I thought this would be a great opportunity to cover
both NASCAR and golf betting. Both sports have just
started their respective seasons, and with summer
approaching, both will become an important source
of business to books.
Betting on NASCAR
As with golf, betting on NASCAR used to be almost
exclusively on who would win the overall event.
However, wagering on the odds to win has become
a distant second to wagering on which of two competitors
will have the better head-to-head results. Books
typically offer match-ups based on drivers (and
their cars and teams, of course) of similar skill,
and will offer anywhere from a dozen to 50 match-ups
on a race.
Picking the winner of a race is difficult, but
the payoff is high. For example, Mark Martin might
be 25/1 to win the entire race, and hitting that
would be a nice payoff, but remember there are 42
other drivers in the race!
Picking the winner of a head-to-head match-up is
much easier, but the payoff is much smaller as well.
For example, Mark Martin (lets say he is 25/1 to
win the race) might be matched up against Jeff Burton
(20/1 to win the race) for wagering purposes. For
such a match-up Martin only has to beat Burton.
He could finish 42nd and still the bet could be
a winner! In a case like this the line might be
Martin +120 and Burton -140, so your $100 on Martin
only pays $120 if he beats Burton. If Martin wins
the race, you would still only get the $120 instead
of the $2500 it would pay if you had picked him
to win the race.
How to handicap a race
When it comes to handicapping a race, there are
a couple of major factors to consider: recent performance
of the driver, and past history of the given track.
Recent performance is just what it sounds like.
How has this driver done over the last three, five
or ten races? Look for consistent strong finishes,
which show that the driver and his crew are in synch.
These teams are always in the hunt near the end
of the race and that will give you a chance to win
every week. Also look for consistent improvement.
A driver that finished 32nd, 23rd, 15th, 8th and
5th respectively over the last five races is likely
someone you want to keep an eye on over the next
couple of races.
Track histories are probably even more important
and not used enough by bettors, in my opinion. Just
like golf courses, or baseball stadiums, there are
different tracks. There are pure ovals, D-ovals
(which have only one real straightaway), super speedways
(where speeds can get so fast that for safety reasons
"restrictor plates" are placed on the
carburetors to physically slow the cars down) and
road courses (which requires cars to turn in both
directions as well as way more braking and thus
a slightly different set of skills from traditional
NASCAR tracks).
Each driver will have a certain type of track they
are better at, and many will have a particular track
or two where they are outstanding, as the length,
speed, slope of the turns, etc all just seem to
fit their particular skill set the best. Ideally,
when you are betting, you will be able to find a
few drivers who do very well at the current track
and that have also been running well in recent weeks.
Once you have your drivers picked, you have to
decide whether you want to bet on the entire race
or on the match-ups or both. If you prefer match-ups,
check through the list to see if there are any situations
where your chosen drivers may be up against opponents
who are big names, but are running cold or on a
track they struggle on. These situations will bring
you the best value for your dollar.
If you prefer to bet the odds to win, there are
a couple of ways to bet. One is to simply pick one
driver and put your money down. Another is to pick
a few drivers and stagger your bet sizes to make
sure you profit a similar amount if any of your
picks win. For example, lets say you like three
drivers and their odds are 5/1, 15/1 and 25/1. You
could bet 8 units at 5/1, 3 units at 15/1 and 2
units at 25/1 and then you would win 35, 35 or 39
units respectively.
Betting on Golf
As a book manager, golf is an enigma. The sport
represents a books' ideal target market, as golfers
tend to be Internet savvy and affluent. I am sure
most golfers wouldn't pay $50 to play basketball,
baseball or football for four hours, but they think
nothing of dropping that much, or several times
that much, to play a round every weekend. Also,
golfers are natural bettors.
I think the main reason golf betting hasn't taken
off is that unlike betting on team sports, it is
incredibly hard to pick the winner of any specific
tournament (except maybe for betting on Tiger at
the Bay Hill Invitational). That is why I want to
focus not on odds-to-win an entire tournament, but
rather on the head-to-head match-ups between individual
players that have become very popular in the last
couple of years.
When you bet on team sports, you have at least
five and as many as 50 players that will affect
the outcome of a game. In golf, there are just the
two players to consider (do the caddies really count?).
If Tiger is on fire and Els is slumping, it's much
easier to know where to put your money. Also, in
golf head-to-heads, there is no clock to run out,
referee decisions are rare, and the match is held
over four days so breaks, good or bad, tend to even
out.
How to handicap a match-up
Golf match-ups are easy to handicap. You can view
a player's performance in recent weeks to see if
he is hot or cold or you can view previous year's
results on the same course. Every player has a slightly
different set of skills and play better on some
courses than others.
Similar arguments exist for auto-racing match-ups
but you never have to worry about a golfer blowing
a tire on the last lap or running out of gas. Injuries
are also less of a concern in golf than they are
in other sports. If a golfer cannot play, he doesn't
get paid so they take good care of themselves (and
hopefully nobody is running into them), and if they
are injured, they tend to take some time off and
make sure they are fully healed before participating
to prevent permanent injury. How many times have
you bet on a team and then found out a key player
is hurt? Yeah, I hate that feeling too.
If you want to be a more profitable sports bettor,
especially if you are a golf fan (or just plan on
watching the final round on TV and want it to be
a little more exciting), spend some time looking
through the weekend's PGA match-ups as thoroughly
as you would the baseball or basketball card. Many
bettors don't like golf wagering because their money
is tied up for four days, but I consider this a
poor excuse and it is indicative of poor money management.
With a little research and a little planning, betting
golf head-to-heads can make you a more profitable
bettor and make rainy Sunday afternoons a little
more exciting.
Have a great week, Rob
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Good luck with your wagers!
Please feel free to email me ([email protected])
or the guys at WagerOnFootball.com
with any questions you want answered and I assure
you they will have a good chance of making the column
(or a subsequent one) as I plan on making this a
monthly column. On behalf of me, my family, and
the entire WagerOnFootball.com & Bodog team,
have a great week everyone.
The enjoyment of your wagering experience with
us is my number one priority. Should you have any
questions, concerns, or comments, I will personally
ensure you are satisfied with your Bodog experience.
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