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By Jason Brough,
Bodog Nation Staff Writer
Archives
- Issue #104 - Forget the Superstars - The Star
Factor
The serious football fan knows Randy
Moss debuts for the Raiders on Sept. 8. The serious
bettor understands how to exploit his change in
uniform.
In this era of free agency, the summer
months can witness significant transformations for
some teams. If you've kept up, you'll have a leg
up on games like the NFL season-opener when the
Super Bowl champion New England Patriots welcome
Moss and his new Oakland teammates to Gillette Stadium.
If you haven't paid close attention,
you're going to be at the books' mercy come Week
1. (And just so you know, the books are a little
short on mercy.)
What should you be looking for during
the offseason?
Lots of stuff.
But start by reviewing all major
transactions involving superstar players. The addition
or subtraction of a superstar will obviously affect
a team's performance. But beware. Star athletes
receive an inordinate share of media and fan attention,
and the public often overreacts to moves involving
high-profile players.
There's more to a team than
one superstar. Take the Moss trade from Minnesota.
Oakland now has three great wide
receivers in Moss, Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry.
Add QB Kerry Collins and his ability to deliver
the deep ball and the Raiders should bust out some
big plays this year. At least that's what everyone's
talking about.
But as the saying goes, "Defense
wins football games," and the Raiders are suspect
on the other side of the ball. Once again, they're
switching defensive schemes and going back to the
4-3. They're also relying on a number of young players
to make this transition - a recipe for confusion.
When a player like Moss comes to
a team, there is always heightened optimism. But
Moss never won a Super Bowl in Minnesota and many
experts say he'll be hard-pressed to see the playoffs
in Oakland.
Avoid the trap of irrational exuberance
that can occur with the addition of superstar players.
Accordingly, do not assume a team that loses a high-profile
player is going to struggle.
The Minnesota Vikings should get
along just fine without Moss, thank you very much.
They will certainly have to make some changes to
the offense - for example, call more play action
to free up receivers - but rookie WR Troy Williamson
should still provide a decent deep threat. And let's
not forget that Nate Burleson and Marcus Robinson
are very capable receivers.
More importantly, on defense the
Vikes added five likely starters via trades and
free agency - LBs Sam Cowart and Napoleon Harris,
DT Pat Williams, CB Fred Smoot and FS Darren Sharper
- and drafted one of college football's premier
pass rushers in DE Erasmus James.
Casual bettors
will focus on Moss
Still, many recreational bettors
will dwell on the fact that Moss is gone. The same
holds true for other star players and the effect
they have on their teams.
"The Indianapolis Colts are
a heavy public favorite because they do well every
year and have big names like Peyton Manning and
Edgerrin James. However, they have never won a Super
Bowl," says Bodog oddsmaker Todd Allen.
Allen adds that many recreational
players ignore offseason transactions that don't
involve superstars. "When there are subtle
moves involving a solid linebacker or nose tackle,
most people don't pay attention and still focus
on the big quarterback or running back," Allen
says.
But the subtle research is what the
books are doing, so if you're a serious bettor,
you'd better be doing it yourself. The majority
of recreational bettors don't take the time to delve
into the nuts and bolts of an upcoming game. This
isn't a slight on them; they aren't out to make
a living betting on sports. For them, the thrill
they experience backing their favorite team with
a few dollars is worth the expense of an occasional
ill-advised wager.
At Bodog.com, our bookmakers handicap
the games themselves, compare their results with
the opening lines out of Vegas and make adjustments
based on the historical action of Bodog's player
base. Long-standing reputation of teams is a large
consideration because the majority of action comes
from people who do little statistical analysis.
Therefore, if you can uncover a subtle
angle that the majority of our bettors are apt to
ignore (or are simply unaware of), you are at a
distinct advantage.
For example - getting back to the
Colts - everyone knows that Manning is a great quarterback.
But he isn't the most mobile of passers. Granted,
he has a quick release and reads defenses superbly,
but he still needs solid pass protection to thrive.
So what happens if one or two of
his offensive linemen get injured? For most recreational
bettors, an injury to a right guard is about as
noteworthy as their morning coffee. But to a sharp
bettor who knows the Colts don't have much depth
on the offensive line, it means a less effective
Manning and a potential adjustment to his wagering
strategy.
And that goes double for the playoffs.
Just kidding, Peyton. Sort of.
Is the Randy Moss move to the
Raiders overblown or will the Silver and Black's
passing attack be the juggernaut so many expect
it to be? Lend us your mind and you may see your
comments in the next issue of Bodog
Nation.
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