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Rob Gillespie, President of Bodog
Sportsbook, Casino and Poker, has been involved
in sports wagering and gambling since he was a young
child. Whether it was playing five-card stud with
his dad's Navy buddies or running a sportsbook out
of his high school locker, Gillespie has always
had a knack for the gambling game.
Analyzing trends on a game that is only played
once a year is tricky business even if conditions
are static, and in this case they aren't. The NFL
is in a constant state of flux and there have been
many changes in the last decade or so that make
results from too far back irrelevant. Changes such
as free agency, timekeeping (there are 15-20% fewer
plays in games today as compared to 20 years ago)
and the salary cap make Super Bowl scores from the
60s, 70s and even the 80s meaningless when predicting
future outcomes.
That doesn't mean the task is impossible; it just
means you have to be a little more careful when
using your results. It is an arbitrary choice I
admit, but for the purposes of this column, I looked
at Super Bowls from the 1990 season and beyond.
All of these games are played at neutral
sites so the first place to start is to
look at favorites and underdogs. Favorites over
the last 14 years are an impressive 10-4 (71%) straight-up
(SU) in Super Bowls, but only a perfectly average
6-6-2 (50%) against the spread (ATS).
My next step was to look at offenses and
defenses. I made notes of how each team
was ranked in the entire NFL that season on both
sides of the ball in terms of points for and against.
Then I compared to see how the team with the higher
ranked offenses did and how the teams with the higher
ranked defenses did.
At first, there didn't appear to be much difference
between the two sets of results as the better offensive
teams were 11-3 SU (79%) and 7-5-2 ATS (57%), while
the better defensive teams were 12-2 SU (86%) and
8-4-2 ATS (67%). There was a slight lean to the
defense, but with only 14 games in the sample, it
is tough to say with any certainty.
But a little more analysis turned up some interesting
stats. In these 14 Super Bowls, the #1 ranked defense
has won 5 games and the #1 ranked offense has won
5 times. The catch is that a #1 ranked defense has
not lost, while the #1 scoring unit has 3 times
(including twice in the last three years with the
Rams losing to the Patriots in 2001, and the Raiders
losing to the Bucs in 2002).
In fact, no defense ranked in the top 3 has lost
a Super Bowl in this time frame while an amazing
7 offenses ranked in the top 3 have lost (please
note that 4 of these losses were to other offenses
ranked in the top 3)! In total, defenses ranked
in the top 3 are a perfect 8-0 SU and were 5-2-1
ATS (71%). That seems a lot better to me than the
6-7-3 (46%) ATS record of top 3 offenses (this adds
to more than 14 because of the head-to-head games
between the top scorers).
Another point on defenses to consider is that the
last 4 Super Bowl winners have all had a defense
that ranks higher than their offense. That comes
on the heels of 9 straight games where the winner
had a better, or equal, ranked offense. Consider
your last 4 winners:
2000 Baltimore Offense #14 Defense
#1
2001 New England Offense #6 Defense
#5
2002 Tampa Bay Offense #16 Defense
#1
2003 New England Offense #12 Defense
#1
Perhaps the winds of change are afoot and defenses
are even more important in the NFL right now than
they have been even over these last 14 seasons.
Another important point on the topic of defenses
is that for trends to be of any value there has
to be a logical explanation and in this case I think
there is. The Super Bowl is the largest bet single
game in North America by far. There is an incredible
amount of beginner and novice bettors playing this
game and they tend to prefer teams that can score.
This attraction to the high-scoring teams (who are
usually the favorites, Denver in 1997 being the
lone exception) drives the pointspread up as books
try to balance action and creates a little extra
advantage for those that play the defensive underdogs.
And one last trend…when a team has a higher
ranked offense and a higher ranked defense than
their opponent, they are a perfect 9-0 SU and a
very impressive 5-2-2 ATS (71%).
Ok, now that we have the past behind us let's look
at the present. How do the two teams in this game
stack up?
New England scored 437 points
(ranked 4th) and allowed 260 (ranked 2nd).
Philadelphia scored 386 points
(ranked 8th) and allowed 260 (ranked 2nd).
If you consider Philly gave up 58 points in the
last two weeks to weak opponents because they dressed
their back-ups for those meaningless games, you
could be tempted to give their defense the nod for
a higher rank. However, the Eagles did play in the
weak NFC, so you could make a case for the Pats
defense. Regardless, it looks like this is going
to be a tough game to call, and hopefully exciting
to watch. Whichever D you prefer is probably the
place to put your money.
Enjoy the game. Oh, and don't forget to pick up
a bottle of Aspirin and maybe some Alka Seltzer
to make Monday morning a little easier.
Have a great weekend, Rob
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NFL
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